March Madness: A Look at the Odds and Trends for Thursday’s Sweet 16 Games

The first set of Sweet 16 games takes place on Thursday in Newark and San Francisco.

Before anything else, a reminder that the games in Newark can’t be bet inside New Jersey because of the state regulations.

A trip across any of the local bridges is needed to bet on BYU/Alabama or Arizona/Duke, unless you’d prefer to simply watch and put your money into NJ online casino instead.

With that out of the way, let’s get into the trends for each matchup. A lot of points are expected in each of the four games, but it would take a whole lot for the overs to go 4-0 on Thursday.

 

BYU vs. Alabama (-5.5) (O/U: 175.5)

The Sweet 16 starts off with an absolute banger!

Alabama plays at the fastest tempo in Division I and BYU ranks in the top 30 in a majority of offensive metrics on KenPom.

Both of these teams can easily get into the 90s. BYU is 21-14 and Alabama is 19-15-1 to the over.

The Crimson Tide are 7-4 to the over on totals of 170 or more, but BYU hasn’t had a game close over 160 this season.

A year ago, both of Alabama’s second weekend games featured both teams in the 80s. Both games were in the 170s, but only one of them got over 175.

So, yeah, the recipe is there for BYU and Alabama to hit the over, but it’s going to require a high level of offense across every four-minute stretch. A bad-shooting two-or-three-minute stretch is all it takes for the under to hit.

The spread is in sweet spot for Bama, who is 5-2 ATS as a favorite between five and 10 points. BYU is 2-2 ATS, with two outright wins, as an underdog of more than five points.

 

Maryland vs. Florida (-6.5) (O/U: 156.5) 

Both Maryland and Florida struggled in the second round.

Maryland won on a buzzer-beater (I don’t give a shit if you think it was a travel or not, it was awesome) and Florida survived the best punch from two-time reigning champion UConn.

You could argue that Florida got its bad game out of its system and it will blow away Maryland. There’s also some old college hoops thinking that Kevin Willard flirting with the Nova job is a distraction for the Terps.

In terms of the numbers, both teams are better than .500 to the over. Florida is 9-6 to the over when the total closed at 156 or higher. Maryland is only 2-2 to the over with a total of 156 or higher.

The 6.5-point spread is tied for the largest against the Terps all season. Meanwhile, Florida, a 26-10 ATS team, is 7-2 ATS as a favorite of between 6 and 10 points.

I’m far more inclined to bet the over on Maryland/Florida than I am with BYU/Bama because Alabama is an ultimate high-variance team. The Tide only shoot threes and take layups, and if the threes aren’t falling, the over isn’t getting there.

 

Arizona vs. Duke (-9.5) (O/U: 153.5) 

Arizona has the ultimate “screw it I’m shooting” guy in Caleb Love.

Love had 29 points and five threes in the second-round win over Oregon, but he only had 10 points in the opener against Akron.

Love’s claim to fame is that he put up 28 points for North Carolina in the Final Four against Duke a few years ago.

It would be poetic if Love eliminated Duke from the NCAA tournament twice in his career, but if he isn’t on, a bet on Duke looks great.

Duke won its first two NCAA tournament games by a combined 67 points. Cooper Flagg looks great and the Blue Devils have covered at a strong rate around this number.

In fact, Duke is 13-2 ATS as a favorite between 8 and 20 points.

Arizona hasn’t been an underdog of more than six points all season, but it’s worth noting the Wildcats failed to cover in all four of their biggest underdog spots, which ranged from four to six points.

 

Arkansas vs. Texas Tech (-5.5) (O/U: 148.5) 

Arkansas’ ATS underdog record is the major trend here.

The Razorbacks are 10-6 ATS as an underdog. They won outright as a dog in the first two rounds versus Kansas and St. John’s. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a dog.

Since February 1st, Texas Tech is only 7-8 ATS and last produced two straight covers on February 1st and 4th. The Red Raiders covered against Drake in the second round.

Texas Tech is 8-4 to the over when the total closed at 148 or higher, while Arkansas is 10-6 to the under at 148 or higher.

I would lean toward the under because I think Texas Tech dictates the pace, and if that’s the case, the Red Raiders are probably covering as well.

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