How to Determine Dynasty Players’ Value in Draft Picks

Determining player value in terms of draft picks is a difficult concept in the dynasty world of fantasy football. In this article, we will take an analytical approach to gauging players’ worth based on their performance and age. In tackling this concept, I first mapped out rookie performance based on position and draft round, and then I tracked player performance following numerous groupings based on age and fantasy output. This evaluation is for non-superflex leagues. Let’s jump into things.

Performance Trends Based on Draft Position

After splitting players into groups by position and historical average draft position (ADP) in dynasty leagues (to reiterate, the draft position is for fantasy leagues, not the NFL draft), I plotted out their ‘lifecycles’ in the fantasy context.

Let’s break down what we see:

Quarterbacks

First and second-round QBs see a strong second and third-year bump in performance and continue to perform strongly through their fifth year. If you draft a QB in the first round, you should expect them to produce just under 20 points a game for at least four years.

Running Backs

On average, RBs typically have a three-year window before starting to decline in fantasy production. A first-round RB selection historically produces close to 15 points a game for at least three years. Via the chart, it is noticeable that some first-round backs produce over 20 points a game for as much as six years; this is more rare for second-round selections and below. Second-rounders tend to produce 10 points or less a year in a five-year span.

Wide Receivers

The WRs are the most consistent and long-lasting group. A first-round WR, on average, produces between 10-15 points a game for eight years! Second-round receivers are slightly worse, producing around 10 points a game for the same time frame. Even third-rounders match this pattern, showing there is a slight difference between second and third-round receiver picks.

Tight Ends

TEs are very front-heavy in production – typically, their fantasy output peaks in their second or third season. Peak production, on average, for a first-rounder is around 10 points per game for two seasons. Second-round TE picks are more stable, which is likely more of an indication of a larger sample size, as first-round fantasy TEs are uncommon.

Performance Trends Based on Age and Average Fantasy Points Per Game

Next, I split players into groups over their careers by their age and fantasy points per game and mapped out their performance following entering each group. Let’s break down the results. Keep in mind the grouping by fantasy points per game is based on their average points per game over the entire span, so some of the best-fit lines may fall under the given point range due to variance.

Quarterbacks:

High-performing young QBs (20-24 years old, scoring over 20 PPG) will likely continue their output for at least six years (based on the sky blue line, which feeds into the green line). Considering the previous section, since a first-round dynasty QB produces close to 20 PPG in five years, any QB in this group can be valued as a first-rounder. QBs scoring 20 PPG in their late 20s, however, might not be worth a first, as older QBs typically don’t produce as much. Any QB falling into the other groups below is likely not to be worth even a second-round pick, as second-round QBs typically show more production.

Running Backs

RBs follow a similar path as QBs – any young back (20-24 years old) producing over 20 PPG will likely continue their production until their late 20s, then show a strong drop-off. As we saw previously that we can expect four strong years of production from a first-round RB, any back under 25 years old, scoring 20 PPG or more, can be valued as a first-rounder. A back of the same caliber that is between 25-27 years old would be matched as a second-rounder.

Wide Receivers

The biggest takeaway from the receiver quadrant is that WRs are the most stable position. From the 25-29 age group averaging 10-19 PPG over this span, their production stays pretty stable over eight years. We can conclude that any receiver 25 years old or less producing 20 PPG or more is certainly a first-round value. After this, a WR 30 years old or under averaging around 10 PPG can be put at a second-round value.

Tight Ends 

Lastly, we see our TE chart follow the same trend that the ADP above showed – TE production simply doesn’t last long. A top-performing TE averaging over 10 PPG could be valued as a first-rounder as long as they are under 28 years old. However, it may be a poor choice to spend a first on a TE unless they are giving you comparable production to another key position. We typically can only expect three to four years of consistency from TEs, so be more cautious on this front.

Conclusion

In conclusion, both fantasy point production and age play a heavy role in draft trade value for dynasty players. It is smartest to avoid spending a first-rounder on top-performing players older than 26-27 years old, depending on the position. Ultimately, top performers, on average, can’t continue their production for more than five years, and knowing this, you will hopefully be able to maximize your player trade values before they are likely to decline.