How do Players Perform After Changing Teams?

Players are constantly traded, cut, and picked up by different teams. The exchange of players in the NFL is endless, and it is unclear whether a change of location impacts a player’s performance from a fantasy football perspective. In this article, we will dive into the stats behind this very question. Let’s take a look.

Analysis

To investigate this, I gathered historical data from 2013 to 2024, mapping players’ performance the year before changing teams to three years following. From here, I plotted the year-to-year results in a violin plot (thicker sections show more players at that level) by position. Player performance is tracked in the form of total PPR fantasy points per season.

Quarterbacks

QBs show a consistent downward trend in performance following a change of teams. From their first year with a new team, they average around 40 points less than the season prior, amounting to around two points per game. After three seasons, they are producing over three points fewer than before their change, on average. One reason for this is that QBs are typically older when they change teams, and as we know, most players (regardless of position) regress as they get older.

It is important to observe players who did beat the trend, outperforming their previous season’s results after changing teams. Below are the top 10 QBs in increased performance via average fantasy points per game. In most cases, we see an increase in player performance in cases where QBs relocated and became a starter, from situations where they rode the bench, or were hurt (See Marcus Mariota, Sam Darnold).

Tight Ends

TEs show a similar trend as QBs. While it is nowhere as severe, TE production still drops slightly after changing teams. This drop corresponds to less than a point drop in the season following relocation.

Let’s check out the top-performing TEs between team changes. It is hard not to notice some of the names on this list, and notice their increased production may have something to do with increased receiving usage. Eric Ebron and Jonnu Smith both saw heavily increased TD numbers after relocating, going from four to 13 and three to eight, respectively. Evan Engram saw an increase of 25 targets in his first year after leaving New York. It is evident that TE production can increase when these pass-catchers are brought into a more offensive role – look for TEs that are being traded to teams without an already-crowded receiving room.

Wide Receivers

WRs show, yet again, a decrease in production following relocation. Their drop in first-year performance is around 40 points per year on average, which is around two points per game. After three seasons, this drop is over 50 points for total season points.

Let’s check out the top-performing journeyman WRs (in PPG). Outside of small sample sizes, you’ll notice many of these players seeing improved performance are being traded or relocated to mediocre teams. For example, the Raiders went 7-9 in 2018, the Eagles went 4-11 in 2020, and the Patriots went 8-9 in 2022. Look for receivers who are being traded to mid-level or rebuilding teams to succeed, as they’ll have a greater opportunity to be the center of the offense.

Running Backs

Finally, let’s take a look at RBs. The results here follow the same trends we have been seeing; however, they are a bit more extreme. The initial drop-off is closer to 50 points between the season after being traded and the one prior. This is likely because RBs are so strongly affected by increasing age that when they move teams, they are usually entering the back half of their careers.

Let’s look at the top over-performing RBs. The primary takeaway we have from this table can be usage – players like Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams were brought into new schemes where their skillsets were used to much greater capacities. While this is much more uncommon for RBs, it is certainly possible. Another explanation of increased performance is relocation after injury, with players such as Raheem Mostert.

Conclusion

Overall, players who change teams are bound to show a decreased level of performance. While there are a number of factors that can help certain positions improve following a change of scenery, it is much less likely. This conclusion is backed up by a 0.28 R squared value between total fantasy points the year before changing teams and total fantasy points the year following. This tells us that 28% of the variation between these two stats is explained by the changing of teams, which is a lot for natural data! The data is significant enough to conclude that, in general, we should expect players to play worse following relocation.