Florida vs. Houston Same Game Parlay: 2025 March Madness Championship Game Parlay Picks

After a 6-month season and 3 weeks of March Madness action, all roads have finally led to this. The National Championship Game will take place in San Antonio, Texas and we’ll get to see 2 of the top 3 teams per KenPom square off on Monday, when the Houston Cougars will take on the Florida Gators in what has the potential to be one of the best title games in recent memory.

Florida continued its resilient postseason ways in the Final Four, rallying from an 8-point halftime deficit to advance past Auburn and into the championship game. On the other side, Houston has showed all tournament that it is well-equipped to handle whatever challenges are thrown its way, as the Cougars won games over Gonzaga, Purdue and Tennessee, before pulling off the largest comeback in Final Four history over the final 8 minutes to knock off Duke and advance to the title game for the first time since 1984.

With everything on the line in this one, let’s get into our Florida vs Houston Same Game Parlay picks for this National Championship game matchup, which tips off at 8:50 pm ET. You can also find out our March Madness picks for the NCAA Tournament’s final game.

Florida ML (-114)

Over 140.5 (-110)

Alijah Martin over 12.5 points (+102)

Florida vs Houston Same Game Parlay odds: +610

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Florida ML (-114)

Both of these teams are elite on both sides of the ball, with each ranking inside the top 10 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. What sets Florida apart from every other team Houston has played to this point is the depth that the Gators have, which is pivotal against a Cougars team that plays with a lot of physicality and expends a ton of energy each time down the floor. On offense, Houston loves midrange jumpers, and the Gators should be more than happy to concede some of those looks in exchange for taking away 3-point opportunities from the likes of Emmanuel Sharp, LJ Cryer and Milos Uzan, all of whom have the capability to get hot from deep. We just saw Houston struggle from inside the arc against Duke, and Florida’s athletic guards and size in the post should create more issues for a Cougars offense that can go through scoring droughts at times.

On the other side of the ball, it’s reasonable to assume that Houston’s game plan on defense will be to consistently send multiple players to the ball (much like it did against Duke) and get the ball our of Clayton Jr.’s hands. However, against a team with Alijah Martin and Will Richard in the backcourt, along with sophomore forward Thomas Haugh playing like a first round pick off the bench, that strategy could end up leading to a ton of advantageous 4-on-3 situations for Florida’s elite offense. I trust this veteran Gators team to consistently make the right decisions, and if the game ends up coming down to the final few minutes, we’ve seen the poise and confidence of Florida time and again shine through when everything is on the line

Check out our full Florida vs Houston prediction

Over 140.5 (-110) 

From a game script perspective, the under is obviously one that shades more toward Houston’s style of play, while the over favors what Florida is able to accomplish with its potent offense. The Gators will likely look to get out and run in transition off long rebounds as much as possible, seeing as Houston’s defense is the best unit in the nation in the halfcourt. However, even if Florida is forced to play out most of its offensive possessions in the halfcourt, this is still one of the top 3-point shooting teams in this tournament, and it certainly has the personnel to knock down 10+ threes in this game.

As for the other side of the ball, Houston is still an outstanding 3-point shooting team, hitting on nearly 40% of its threes this season. Even if the Gators are able to send length and multiple bodies at the likes of Cryer, Sharp and Uzan, one of those guards is going to get hot at some point in the game. There’s also the matter of free throws, which tend to be a bit more plentiful for both teams in a game of this magnitude. Ultimately, this is a game where I could see both teams hitting 70+ points if things come down to the wire, so let’s back the over on Monday.

Find our expert’s best bets for the National Championship

Alijah Martin over 12.5 points (+102) 

For the final leg of our Same Game Parlay, I’m going to target Florida guard Alijah Martin to exceed his point total for the second consecutive contest. Martin’s previous Final Four experience as a member of the 2023 Florida Atlantic team really showed itself on Saturday, as the senior tallied 17 points and was easily the second-best player on the court for the Gators. Martin has the capability to knock down massive shots from the perimeter, but he can also get to the rim and inflict pain on opposing defenses that way, as we saw with his pair of thunderous dunks in the second half to ignite Florida’s offense in the win over Auburn. With Houston’s defense expected to sell out against Walter Clayton Jr., Martin is a player that should shine with a higher workload in this game. I’ll gladly take a bite on this prop at plus money.

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