Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 18

Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!

Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:

• Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL.
• Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape.
• Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects.

And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!

Rookie Opportunity Dashboard

To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:

• Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between actual production and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
• Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.

If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 17:

• Bucky Irving has been a league-winner for dynasty managers. For those who made it into the playoffs, Irving produced three straight top-20 performances, culminating in a top-five finish against Carolina. Throughout the fantasy playoffs, Irving was the RB11 in Expected Fantasy Points with 14.5 xFP, leading the Tampa Bay backfield in usage value over the last three games. While I was initially skeptical because of his draft capital, Irving has proven to be one of the most efficient rushers in the league, likely cementing his spot as the Bucs’ RB1 in 2025.
• Marvin Harrison Jr.’s usage finally translated into some fantasy production, finishing the week with 12.6 half-PPR points on a 22% target share. Volume has rarely been the issue as Harrison continues to command over 20% of the team’s targets and at least 30% of their air yards in four of his last five games. And with the Cardinals leaning more into the passing game in Week 17, Harrison Jr. was able to exceed 100 receiving yards for the first time in four weeks. In short, while his production has fluctuated throughout the season, MHJ still had a productive rookie year. Whether he can elevate his game in his second season will be heavily dependent on how the Cardinals approach the offseason (New quarterback? New coaching staff?).
• Xavier Worthy continues to trend in the right direction, exceeding a 23% target share for the third consecutive game. In fact, Worthy has been a top-16 WR in each of his last three games, ranking as the WR6 in points per game since Week 15. While it is a smaller sample size, it is encouraging to see Worthy’s usage steadily improve, even with the return of Hollywood Brown. With both Brown and DeAndre Hopkins set to test free agency, I would not be shocked to see Worthy enter the 2025 season as the WR1 for the Chiefs.
• Speaking of league winners, Malik Nabers saved his most productive performance for Week 17, finishing with an elite 32.6 half-PPR points, 36.4% target share, and 40.4% air yards share. In addition, his +20.8 Fantasy Points Over Expected is the most efficient performance by a rookie wide receiver over the last three years. While his production has been sensational this year, I would not be shocked if he elevated his game even further when the Giants finally find their franchise quarterback.
• How impactful was this year’s rookie wide receiver class in the fantasy playoffs? Three of them ranked in the top 10 in half-PPR points per game: Malik Nabers, Xavier Worthy, and Brian Thomas Jr. All three wide receivers were also within the top 10 in usage value, or Expected Fantasy Points.
• Jayden Daniels is arguably a top-three dynasty quarterback going forward. Even beyond his performance this past week, Daniels has been one of the most consistent and efficient quarterbacks in the league. In fact, he currently leads ALL quarterbacks in usage value with 19.8 xFP per game, while ranking within the top five in half-PPR points. With a young, improving offense that could add further talent this offseason (sixth-most cap space), Daniels will remain a QB1 for the foreseeable future.

Dynasty Stock Report

James Cook – Buffalo Bills, RB

Stock Up

Entering the year, I was somewhat skeptical that James Cook would continue his upward trajectory as he never truly profiled as a workhorse running back, dating back to his days at Georgia. However, even with the addition of Ray Davis, Cook has been the unquestioned RB1 for the Bills, leading their backfield in every usage metric. In fact, he has been far more involved in the red zone this season, ranking 13th in the league in red zone rush attempts (42). That has led to a league-leading 17 touchdowns, operating as one of the most efficient scorers at the running back position. And through 17 weeks, Cook is averaging:

• 8.6% Target Share
• 27.1% Opportunity Share
• 16.1 Half-PPR Points
• 11.7 Expected Fantasy Points (RB25)
• +4.4 Fantasy Points Over Expected (RB2)

In short, Cook is set to finish as an RB1 for the first time in his career. However, keep in mind that his production is heavily reliant on efficiency, which raises concerns about potential regression next season. Regardless, he remains one of the most valuable dynasty running backs as he approaches a contract season in 2025. Assuming Josh Allen remains healthy, Cook will continue to receive plenty of high-value touches in one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. 

Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles Rams, WR

Stock Down

After several WR1 seasons, Cooper Kupp’s run as a dominant player in fantasy football may be coming to an end. In 12 games, Kupp has only produced two WR1 performances, while finishing outside of the top 24 in five games this season. His lack of volume has been especially concerning in recent weeks, finishing outside of the top 12 in Expected Fantasy Points in his last five matchups. Especially with the Rams’ continued run-heavy game plan (24th in Pass Rate Over Expected) and the dominant usage by Puka Nacua, Kupp has been extremely volatile to close out the season. As a result, we need to temper our expectations going forward as Kupp should now be viewed as a fantasy WR2 at best, clearly ranking behind Nacua and Kyren Williams in the Rams’ offense. Especially as he approaches his age-32 season, I expect his dynasty value to only decline from here on out.

Terry McLaurin – Washington Commanders, WR

Stock Up

Even after a successful start to his career, Terry McLaurin has been mostly a low-end WR2 for fantasy football. In addition, he is coming off his most inefficient campaign, finishing 2023 averaging -1.3 Fantasy Points Over Expected. As a result, McLaurin was only the WR40 in points per game as he received passes from Sam Howell last season. Fortunately, the Commanders drafted Jayden Daniels as their QB1, signaling a significant upgrade for the entire offense. To no surprise, McLaurin is currently on pace to finish with a career-high 13.2 half-PPR points per game, averaging:

• 22.1% Target Share
• 40.6% Air Yards Share
• 19.9% Targets per Route Run
• 10.1 Expected Fantasy Points
• +3.1 Fantasy Points Over Expected

Surprisingly, his usage remained mostly unchanged, finishing with nearly identical market share numbers and a slightly lower usage value (10.9 xFP in 2023). The only major difference is that his touchdown efficiency finally improved, averaging +3.1 Fantasy Points Over Expected. Despite his heavy reliance on efficiency, his dynasty stock is still trending in the right direction as the Commanders finally have their franchise quarterback. However, keep in mind that McLaurin will already be 30 years old next season, which means his production could taper off as he approaches the end of his prime. As a result, rebuilding fantasy managers should consider trading him away while he still holds value in the dynasty community.

DeAndre Hopkins – Kansas City Chiefs, WR

Stock Down

When DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs earlier this year, there was some hope that he could return to WR1 production in a much better ecosystem. Unfortunately, outside of a couple of top-24 performances, Hopkins has failed to make a consistent impact with Kansas City. In fact, he has finished below a 20% target share in seven of 10 games. Since the return of Hollywood Brown and the emergence of Xavier Worthy, Hopkins’ production has declined even further, only averaging 4.5 half-PPR points in his last three games. Unfortunately, his days as a productive fantasy wide receiver are likely numbered as he approaches his age-33 season. His status as an unrestricted free agent also adds further risk to his dynasty value, as there is no guarantee he will re-sign with the Chiefs in 2025. 

Prospect Watch List

Ollie Gordon II entered the year as one of the most productive college running backs from the 2023 season, leading the nation in total touches (324) and yards from scrimmage (1,732) last year. He also accounted for 35% of their team’s entire offense, averaging an elite 2.02 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play (92nd percentile). After a successful campaign, Gordon’s draft stock improved significantly as many expected him to dominate again in 2024. After all, the Cowboys’ offense remained relatively intact heading into the year. Unfortunately, Gordon’s efficiency regressed heavily to the mean as he averaged a career-low yards per touch (4.8). While Gordon should receive some blame, his offensive line also struggled heavily this year. As a result, Gordon averaged 1.32 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play as a junior, which would only rank in the 50th percentile among all running backs drafted since 2013. Considering his trajectory entering the season, it was a relatively disappointing campaign for one of the most promising prospects in the 2025 draft.

So where does that leave Gordon as a prospect as we head into the offseason? In total, I still think Gordon can thrive in the NFL considering his size (225 pounds) and ability to break tackles in the open field. In fact, I would not be shocked if he crushed the combine in a couple of months, potentially securing his draft stock as a day-two pick. His analytical profile, however, is far from elite, especially if we adjust for experience and strength of schedule. As a result, Gordon is currently only in the ~70th percentile in my rookie model, with an upside to improve if he dominates the pre-draft process.

For a list of prospects to keep an eye on as we head into the 2025 NFL Draft, below are the most productive CFB running backs this season: