One of the keys to building a dynasty contender is understanding the peaks and valleys at each position. When do players break out? When do they approach their prime? Most importantly, when should we expect their production to inevitably decline? Fortunately, we can use historical data to help answer these questions, which I highlighted in my Dynasty Lifecycle series last off-season. If you haven’t already, be sure to read our detailed breakdowns for each position:
- The Dynasty Lifecycle of Running Backs
- The Dynasty Lifecycle of Wide Receivers
- The Dynasty Lifecycle of Tight Ends
- The Dynasty Lifecycle of Quarterbacks
Data Points: The Age Cliff
In this article, we will primarily focus on players nearing the end of their prime and could experience a drastic decline in production and dynasty value this season. With that in mind, what data points should we be looking for?
First off, our dynasty lifecycle series identifies a “decline” as the final season of a player’s career or the first season after their breakout in which they experienced a 30% decline in points per game.
For running backs, we have historically seen the highest concentration of declines occur between their sixth and eighth seasons in the league (about 46% of our sample size). That coincides with the fact that most RBs decline between the ages of 28 and 30 (42% of our sample size).
For wide receivers, we typically see a longer lifecycle. In our dataset, the highest concentration of declines occurred between the ages of 30 and 32, which accounted for 38% of our total sample size. In addition, most declines happened between the 10th and 11th seasons of a WR’s career. Considering most players enter the NFL at ages 21 and 22, this further confirms that most WRs decline in their early 30s.
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