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DPOY 2025 Odds and Predictions: Who Wins in Wemby’s Absence?

April 2, 2025
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The NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds are on the move after a massive injury announcement! San Antonio Spurs’ standout Victor Wembanyama is out, and there has been a couple of major shifts in the DPOY betting markets.

Let’s delve into the details, and make our updated 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year predictions!

NBA DPOY Betting Odds for 2024-25

The following NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds are courtesy of Bovada:

PLAYER ODDS
Draymond Green (Warriors) -175
Evan Mobley (Cavs) +130
Luguentz Dort (Thunder) +1500
Dyson Daniels (Hawks) +2500
Jaren Jackson Jr. (Grizzlies) +6000
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) +15000

Golden State’s Draymond Green (-175) has surged to the front of the pack in these 2024-25 NBA DPOY odds! The Warriors’ stalwart was +850 on March 19, but is now favored with an implied win probability of 63.6% to win the award he took home in 2017! It’s been an incredible run for Green, who is the backbone of a Golden State team that is better defensively than they probably should be.

Cleveland’s Evan Mobley (+130) is next with an implied chance to win of 43.5%, and he was favored at -300 at the time of our last update. The Cavaliers have hit a bit of a slump down the stretch as they prepare for the playoffs, which could be a reason for Mobley’s drop in the NBA DPOY odds.

Oklahoma City’s Lu Dort (+1500) and Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels (+2500) have an outside shot of winning Defensive Player of the Year. But they’ve probably been the two best perimeter defenders for most of the season. Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr. (+6000) was a favorite before an ill-timed injury in early March. Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+15000) brings up the rear, but he’ll have to settle for being the favorite in the NBA MVP odds for this season.

Before I go through the main players and share my DPOY predictions for 2025, you should know you can find the odds at Bovada by simply going to Bovada > Basketball > NBA Awards and League Leaders.

NBA Defensive Player of the Year Betting Favorite

With “Wemby” out of the picture, the race for DPOY looks completely different. Let’s evaluate the current favorites and find the value:

Draymond Green (-175)

Green has been the leader of the Golden State defense for basically his entire career, and after a slow start to the season, he has really picked it up. The Warriors were tied for fourth in defensive rating in March, and they’re seventh for the entire season, just ahead of Cleveland.

Green continues to guard all five positions on the floor, and it does help that he has Jimmy Butler to roam the perimeter now. That allows Green to be even more of a leader, calling out assignments to his teammates and seeing the whole floor.

However, and this is no knock on Green, but the metrics don’t aid the four-time NBA champion. Green is just 26th in defensive win shares, which is defined by “the number of wins contributed by a player due to defense”. That number might be slightly misleading as Gilgeous-Alexander leads the way there, but you would say Dort or Jalen Williams is more important to Oklahoma City’s defense. You can also look at defensive box plus/minus, where Green is fourth.

I prefer to just go by the eye test, and Green is still one of the most impactful defensive players in the game? But the most impactful? I’m going to go down the board to find more value in these NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds.

Evan Mobley (+130)

Mobley has been consistent all season long on the defensive end of the floor, and now his odds are back to providing some value for you! The Cavaliers are right behind Golden State overall in defensive rating, and Mobley is 13th in defensive win shares, along with 11th in win percentage. He also took a page out of Green’s book by lobbying for the award.

Mobley is just as good on the perimeter as Green, and he’s much better at the rim, averaging 1.6 blocks to 1.1 for Green. The Cavaliers’ recent dip in form looks to be boredom as they wait to get to the playoffs as they’ve almost sewn up the #1 seed in the East. But Mobley still ranks 11th in defensive net rating, while Green isn’t in the top 25.

But Mobley is well-deserving of this award and as I saw, he’s been better for most of the season, until maybe the last month. Even that is up for debate.

Best NBA Defensive Player of the Year 2024-25 Sleepers

Lu Dort (+1500)

Dort probably won’t win the award, but he has been brilliant for the Thunder on defense this season. The Thunder don’t ask Dort to do much offensively, where he averages 10.1 points per game. Therefore, he has more energy to expend on hounding the opposition’s best perimeter player. Even his teammates are touting his skills.

The native of Montreal is a force on an Oklahoma City team that has been the best defensive squad for most of the year, and by a wide margin. Between Dort and Williams on the wings, and the duo of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren in the post, teams are in tough to score against him. That’s not even considering Gilgeous-Alexander and Alex Caruso, among others.

Therein lies the issue with Dort: how much is the system, and how much is the individual? Don’t get me wrong, Dort is an outstanding defender without being flashy, and his games against the league’s best prove that. But there are many factors at play when you deal with Oklahoma City, and Dort might get credit for being a cog in the wheel. He might be the most important cog, but I don’t think it’s enough to earn him the NBA DPOY.

Dyson Daniels (+2500)

I think Daniels should have better NBA DPOY odds than Dort, simply because the other defenders around him aren’t great, to be nice. Daniels is 21st in defensive net rating, but you have to consider how much Daniels has to do with Trae Young beside him, and no rim protection.

Daniels also has to do more offensively than Dort, averaging 14.1 points, which is way up from his 5.8 points of last season. The Hawks’ guard is also making moves up the NBA Most Improved Player odds, and his trade to Atlanta should be one of the best moves of the season.

I think Daniels should get consideration for the NBA DPOY award, but I don’t think he’ll get it.

NBA Defensive Player of the Year Predictions and Betting Pick

I’m sticking with my NBA DPOY prediction of Evan Mobley, and I’m pleased that he offers more value now at +130. In addition to everything I noted above, I think you have to consider that Mobley is the defensive backbone of a 60-win team and a probable #1 seed in the East.

I think Green has had a great season, but Mobley has been better from start to finish. Evan Mobley is my NBA Defensive Player of the Year prediction at +130!

The Bet
EVAN MOBLEY
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Where to Bet on the NBA Defensive Player of the Year 2024-25?

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