Bucs vs. Commanders: Pewter Predictions For NFC Wild Card Round

BUCS vs. COMMANDERS

WHEN: Sunday, January 12, 2025 | WHERE: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) | KICKOFF: 8:15 p.m. ET | TV: NBC

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Mike Tirico | ANALYST: Cris Collinsworth | SIDELINE: Melissa Stark

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Experienced Bucs Overcome Upstart Commanders

The Bucs have hosted a Wild Card playoff game in each of the last four years and have been in the playoffs in each of the last five years. That experience should help on Sunday night when Tampa Bay hosts Washington. This reminds me of when Tom Brady and the 13-4 Bucs beat the 9-8 Eagles in the 2021 Wild Card game. Philly won 14 games the next year before losing to Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

The Commanders have made an amazing turnaround in Dan Quinn’s first year as head coach, but his team just lacks playoff experience. Washington’s last playoff game came in 2020 at 7-9 when the team hosted Tampa Bay in a Wild Card game and lost. Not many players The Bucs also have the experience of beating the Commanders in Week 1, 37-20.

Both teams have gotten better since then and have the No. 4 (Bucs at 29.5 ppg) and No. 5 (Commanders at 28.5 ppg) scoring offenses in the league. But Tampa Bay’s defense has been stellar down the stretch, allowing just 17 points per game since the bye in Week 11. The Bucs have gone 6-1 over that span and have only allowed an average of 3.3 points per game in the second half of the last seven games. The Commanders have won a few games in the last minute, but the Bucs defense should be ready and looking to blitz Jayden Daniels even more than it did in Week 1.

Baker Mayfield got snubbed for the Pro Bowl by Daniels despite throwing 41 touchdowns to Daniels’ 25. He’ll have an extra large chip on his shoulder for this one. If he can replicate last year’s Wild Card performance in which he threw for three touchdowns – or his season-opening salvo of four TDs vs. the Commanders – the Bucs should score 30 or more points again. Bucky Irving should also run wild against the league’s No. 30 rushing defense. Tampa Bay is 3-0 when he rushes for 100 yards or more, and is 6-0 when he hits at least 80.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Commanders 26
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 10-7

Matt Matera: Bucs Win In Close Contest

It’ll be fun that this is a matchup between two teams that kicked the season off against each other, so the Bucs and Commanders are much different teams than when they met months ago. That doesn’t mean that the high-scoring moments will be few and far between. This game can be a shootout, just used in a different way. 

During the first game, Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield balled out with 289 passing yards and four touchdowns as Tampa Bay scored 37 points. This time around, though, the Bucs will take advantage in the ground game, leaning on Bucky Irving as they exploit the weakness of the Commander’s ability to stop the run.

And of course, we get the always exciting matchup of Mike Evans against Marshon Lattimore. I’m sure offensive coordinator Liam Coen will get Evans going in several ways.

How the Bucs try to slow down Jayden Daniels will be a mystery. Can Yaya Diaby continue his momentum after winning NFC Defensive Player of The Week? They can’t let Daniels buy time and find Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz downfield. The good news for the Bucs is they’ll get safety Antoine Winfield Jr. back and cornerback Jamel Dean returning, who can make up for a lot. It may take one big play by the defense to get it done, but the Bucs find it within them to win and advance.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 33, Commanders 31
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 11-6

Bailey Adams: Bucs Do Just Enough To Hold Off Commanders

Truthfully, I was going back and forth on this matchup all week. I think this is a rare case where the Bucs like that they ended up drawing the Commanders, and the Commanders like that they ended up drawing the Bucs. Both teams have to love their chances in this one, and I think it’ll be a close contest.

These are two of the best offenses in the NFL, and both teams have defenses that can be plenty shaky. That could lead to a high-scoring game. In fact, I think it will. But I think Tampa Bay prevails in the end.

Offensively, it’s hard to put one of these units too far above the other. But I think where I’ll give the Bucs the edge is with their run game. Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is dangerous with his arm and legs, but I don’t like Washington’s chances to muster up much of a rushing attack against this Tampa Bay defense, at least outside of what Daniels can do when he escapes the pocket.

On the flip side, I think Liam Coen’s offense will be able to strike a great balance between the pass game and run game. Baker Mayfield is playing great football right now, and the duo of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White should have a field day against the Commanders’ 30th-ranked run defense. As hard as it is to call which of these offenses will bring more to the table on Sunday night, it may be the same conundrum with the defenses.

But, for all the faults of the Tampa Bay defense, there’s something telling me that Todd Bowles will pull out another masterful gameplan come Sunday night like he did in the team’s 32-9 win over Philadelphia in last year’s Wild Card game at Raymond James Stadium. It may not lead to the Commanders only scoring nine points, but I think the defense does just enough to help out the Bucs offense and keep this season going. Oh, and don’t be surprised if Chase McLaughlin’s leg ends up making a difference in this one.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 34, Commanders 28
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 12-5

Josh Queipo: Bucs Win And Return To Divisional Round

Full disclosure. While my prediction appears above Adam Slivon’s, I was the last to enter my prediction. And it is killing me to agree with ALL of my colleagues and make this a clean sweep of us predicting the Bucs will win. But that is truly what I think will happen.

The Bucs have a better point differential than the Commanders this season at +117 to +94. The Bucs are 7-2 in games decided by more than one score. The Commanders have a similar win percentage but have been in just five such contests this year, showing they struggle to really put teams away.

Where Washington has excelled is in one score games, where they are 8-4 on the year. But history has shown those types of teams tend to come back to the mean over time – the 2022 Vikings come to mind. The Bucs hold the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. And that should be what decides this game.

There has not been a secondary that Liam Coen hasn’t been able to scheme open his playmakers against, and Marshon Lattimore be damned, I don’t see that starting this week. Baker Mayfield has leveled up in recent weeks, and an underreported aspect of his game has been the fact that he has been a damn good playoff quarterback to date, albeit in a small sample size. The question comes down to the defense and I think that Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy approach will do enough to get a couple of key stops to allow the Bucs to win this by more than most people think.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 27, Commanders 19
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 10-7

Adam Slivon: Bucs’ Offense Does Enough To Beat Commanders And Advance

On paper, the Bucs and Commanders match up quite well heading into Sunday night’s Wild Card game. Tampa Bay has the fourth-scoring offense and 16th-scoring defense in the NFL, while Washington ranks fifth and 18th in those categories, respectively. While the home team holds slight statistical advantages over their opponent, the offense – led by Baker Mayfield – truly sets them apart. Mayfield has shown throughout the season that he can lead the Bucs to wins in a variety of ways.

While most can be credited to putting up a high volume of points on the board, he has been able to play with whatever weapons he has at his disposal. Anchored by an offensive line with first-team All-Pro Tristan Wirfs, it is a stout front that buys him time and gives Bucky Irving ample space to make things happen. Combining his success through the air with facing the 30th-ranked rushing defense is a recipe to keep the good times going.

Bobby Wagner leads the Commanders defense, but it is a unit that was exposed back in Week 1, allowing 37 points. Adding cornerback Marshon Lattimore adds some intrigue, but until proven otherwise, offensive coordinator Liam Coen gets the benefit of the doubt.

There are some doubts about how Tampa Bay’s defense will fare facing a more comfortable Jayden Daniels. Daniels is a dynamic threat on the ground and through the air, with much of his recent production being a product of his elite efficiency in making all kinds of throws. Stopping him is paramount, and getting Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jamel Dean back bodes well in preventing Terry McLaurin from having a big day.

Lavonte David has a tall task of containing him in the pocket, coming home on blitzes, and holding his own against Zach Ertz in a battle of 34-year-olds, but I think “LVD” still has some gas left in the tank. I predict a close, back-and-forth first half, but the team’s playoff experience paired with being led by an ignitor of a quarterback allows them to pull away late to a postseason victory at home.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Commanders 27
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 11-6

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