Breaking Down the Penn State vs. Boise State Fiesta Bowl Odds

Penn State is a bigger favorite for the College Football Playoff quarterfinals than it was in the first round.

The Nittany Lions are -11.5 for the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State, and to be honest, it’s a fair line considering where both teams have come from.

Penn State resided in the top five for most of the season and finished five spots ahead of Boise in the final CFB Playoff rankings. Boise earned a higher seed because the top four conference champions got the top four seeds and first-round byes.

While Boise does have Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty at running back, it only played one game against a power-five opponent and that was back in September when Oregon was still finding its groove.

You could make the case for Boise to cover the spread on New Years’ Eve because the Broncos only lost by three points to Oregon, but so much has changed since Week 2 that we just don’t know how Boise stacks up against a power conference team.

The matchup between Jeanty and PSU’s defense is strength-versus-strength. Jeanty’s gone over 100 rushing yards in every game and scored in all but one contest. Penn State owns the seventh-best rushing defense in the FBS and allows just a tick over 100 yards per game on the ground.

So is it as simple as stop Jeanty and cover the spread? Probably.

Boise’s offense only averages 219.6 passing yards per game and Penn State allows 179.6 pass yards per game.

The Nittany Lions hold the clear edge at quarterback with Drew Allar over Maddux Madsen. Tyler Warren is the clear top target on either roster in the passing game.

Jeanty alone is the best running back in the matchup, but you could argue that Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen as a tandem at least come close to neutralizing Jeanty’s overall impact.

As for what the trends say, Penn State is 4-4 against the spread as a favorite of 11 or more points. Boise has only been an underdog once and covered the 18 against Oregon.

The over/under of 53 is the second-highest total for a Penn State game this season. The Nittany Lions are 5-2 to the over when the total closes above 50 points. They are 1-6 to the under when the total closes below 50.

Meanwhile, with Boise, totals have been this high all season. The Broncos are 7-6 to the over and all of their totals have closed at 53 points or higher.

The over seems to be the play given Penn State’s stark trend with higher totals, and if you believe Jeanty will break one or two big runs to go along with PSU’s normal offensive play, that might be the best way to approach the game with such a high spread.

Kinkead: The PSU moneyline is -450 and has no value. If you can bet that down with NJ sportsbook promos or PA betting promos, maybe you wrap it into a Texas parlay that gets you under -200. 

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