Best Trump Prop Bets: Odds, Analysis, and Betting Predictions

Will Donald Trump be on the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election Ballot?

• • Yes +200

During an interview with Meet the Press, Donald Trump mused about the possibility of running for a third term. The 22^nd Amendment limits presidents to two terms in office, a measure passed by Republicans after FDR’s four successive terms.

Trump isn’t the only person thinking about a third term for himself out loud. On Bill Maher’s April 11 show, former White House strategist Steve Bannon claimed to have a team working on making Trump’s third term a reality.

Steve Bannon tells @BillMaher that the 22nd Amendment is “open for interpretation”:

“President Trump is going to run for a 3rd term and President Trump is going to be elected again. On the afternoon of January 20th of 2029. He’s going to be President of the United States.” pic.twitter.com/EheI4wclMX

— Real Time with Bill Maher (@RealTimers) April 12, 2025

As one of the architects of the MAGA movement, Bannon’s push for an unconstitutional third Trump term shows how serious the president’s most ardent followers are about the idea. Trump’s willingness to challenge laws and norms also suggests he could be undeterred by legal prohibitions against a third term, anyway.

That’s why the odds of +200 for Trump to run again make a lot of sense.

Who Will be the Next Cabinet Member to Leave their Post?

• • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +300
  • Marco Rubio +300
  • Pete Hegseth +300
  • Tulsi Gabbard +500
  • Linda McMahon +600
  • John Ratcliffe +1000
  • Scott Bessent +1200
  • Pam Bondi +2000
  • Kristi Noem +2000
  • Lee Zeldin +2500

After 14 Cabinet members left their positions in Trump’s first term, all eyes are on the next round of exits. As of mid-April, the top three contenders are Robert Kennedy Jr., Marco Rubio, and Pete Hegseth.

Kennedy, Trump’s HHS secretary, is a vaccine skeptic who has proposed managing the early 2025 bird flu outbreak by letting the virus spread then play out. He also sent Vitamin A supplements to a Texas town experiencing a measles outbreak fueled by low vaccination rates.

Marco Rubio, Trump’s secretary of state, could quit or be pushed out over the positions he’s had to reverse or Elon Musk’s DOGE firings.

Rubio was previously a supporter of Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression but had to sit quietly while the president and vice president blamed the war on Ukraine’s president. He has also clashed with Musk over eliminating USAID, a department under Rubio’s control.

Pete Hegseth, who required a tie-breaking vote from the vice president to become secretary of defense, wrapped himself in scandal weeks into his tenure. A national security advisor added The Atlantic’s editor to a group chat on an unsecured app discussing attack plans on Houthi rebels in Yemen. Hegseth seems to have survived his scandal but may not survive the next self-inflicted wound.

My expert pick is Rubio as the next to leave. In Trump’s first term, Cabinet members who were willing to challenge him were among the first to leave. It’s a pattern that may replicate the second time around.

Will Donald Trump Create a DOGE Dividend in 2025?

• • Yes +350

In February 2025, Trump and Musk proposed a DOGE Dividend. It would be a stimulus check sent to qualifying Americans based on a proportion of DOGE’s savings. Originally, it was pitched as a $5,000 to each American making over $40,000 per year.

In April, DOGE’s website showed $155 billion in savings, which comes out to almost $1,000 per federal taxpayer.

Like the stimulus checks sent during the pandemic, Congress would have to approve the checks, and it may not come down to a clean party line vote. President Biden’s stimulus checks at the beginning of his term were criticized for being inflationary, a charge DOGE dividends would be vulnerable to as well.

My betting pick is Yes on a DOGE dividend. It doesn’t have to meet expectations or earlier promises to pass later in the year.

How Many People Will Donald Trump Deport in 2025?

• • 250k-500k -110
  • 500k-750k +400
  • 750k-1m +1200
  • 1m-1.25m +3500
  • 1.25m-1.5m +3500
  • 1.5m-1.75m +6000
  • 1.75m-2m +6000
  • 2m or more +4000

While Trump made campaign  promises to “launch the largest deportation program of criminals” in American history, his first-year results are expected to be much more modest.

A Newsweek story from mid-March reported the Trump administration deported about 28,000 undocumented immigrants. In an April 1 story, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reported to Newsweek that it deported 100,000 people, implying that it had conducted over 70,000 deportations in the two weeks since Newsweek’s previous update.

Since ICE reduced the frequency of its public updates in January, it’s hard to say how many proven deportations have occurred. It’s likely to be lower than advertised by the end of the year.

My expert pick is to expect 250,000 to 500,000 deportations by the end of 2025. Biden’s final year saw over 271,000 deportations, so while Trump could escalate deportations later in his term, it seems like a reach to more than double deportations in one year.