Who will hit a home run tonight in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks) Check the next section if you want our reasoning for each of them, and feel free to use the recommended wagers here for our free World Series betting contest.
Best Home Run Bets Today, March 27
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for March 27 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for March 27:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+550) – Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays open their 2025 season on Opening Day with plenty of question marks. The biggest bar none is whether this is the final year that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He wants a new contract and the Blue Jays were unable to come to terms with him in the offseason.
In other words, Guerrero Jr. is in a contract year and the stakes are high. Look for him to get off to a quick start against the Baltimore Orioles on Opening Day. Guerrero Jr. swatted 30 home runs for the Jays last season.
Vlad Jr. put in WORK this offseason 😤 pic.twitter.com/y0KhcZSTn9
— MLB (@MLB) February 15, 2025
He started slow a season ago and caught fire two months into the year. If Guerrero Jr. wants a $600 million payday, he’ll need to start faster this time. The Jays have a decently favorable matchup versus Zach Eflin at the Rogers Centre.
The pitcher doesn’t have the best experience against Vladdy. Note that Guerrero Jr. has hit two home runs in 19 at-bats against him. Eflin is a solid hurler, but he’s conceded a .368 batting average to Guerrero Jr. as well!
With this in mind, Guerrero Jr. at +550 to hit a home run is a fantastic option.
Alex Bregman (+550) – Boston Red Sox
Alex Bregman makes his regular season debut in a Red Sox uniform. Bregman was a prized free agent signing for the Red Sox in the offseason. It took him until February to decide on inking with the Red Sox on a three-year contract.
He brings 26 home runs with him from his final season in Houston. The 30-year-old third baseman has hit at least 25 long balls in each of his last two seasons. Note that Bregman has been swinging a hot bat in spring training.
Alex Bregman introduces himself to @RedSox fans with a big home run! #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/CjTNjuXhlq
— MLB (@MLB) February 23, 2025
Bregman has been looking to impress in his first campaign in Boston! He tattooed three balls over the fence in 43 at-bats in the preseason. A solid all-around game is part of Bregman’s appeal, which includes power hitting.
The Rangers send Nathan Eovaldi to the bump on Opening Day. Bregman has been a menace versus Eovaldi in his career. He’s hitting .345 with two home runs in 29 at-bats versus Eovaldi.
At +550, Bregman is one of the best MLB home run bets today on Opening Day!
Ketel Marte (+350) – Arizona Diamondbacks
Ketel Marte and the Diamondbacks open the 2025 campaign against the Cubs at Chase Field. Marte is on the heels of a fantastic career season in the desert. He recorded a career-high 36 home runs in 136 games with the Diamondbacks.
Ketel Marte had the highest average (.397 AVG) on inside fastballs in the national league last season
A reminder: do NOT throw an inside-heater to Ketel, otherwise its a Marte-Party for the Dbacks pic.twitter.com/XPzyYcQR9G
— Dalton Feely (@dfeely14) February 25, 2025
Marte is expected to have another huge offensive showing this season and he should get off to a fast start versus the Cubs. Justin Steele receives the starting call for the Cubs. He is coming off a shaky performance in the Tokyo Series against the Dodgers.
Steele was hammered for an ERA of 11.25 after conceding five earned runs and five hits. The Cubs’ starter was tagged for two home runs in a start he wants to forget about quickly.
Note that Steele has been off the rails in spring training, too. He posted a 9.35 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, with four home runs yielded in 8.2 innings. With Steele struggling, Marte at +350 is one of the best home run picks today!
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/best-bets-to-hit-home-run-today/
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