Australian Open Tennis Day 6 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets: Time for Djokovic to pick up the pace

Third-round action at the Australian Open gets underway on Friday, when world #1 Aryna Sabalenka takes the court along with Coco Gauff, Carlos Alcaraz Novak Djokovic and Coco Gauff. The competition level is starting to heat up for Djokovic, who is bidding for title #11 at Melbourne Park. 

Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 6 schedule. 

Parlay: Novak Djokovic ML over Tomas Machac and Jakub Mensik ML over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-106) 

Djokovic has good value as not that big of a favorite, at least in a parlay such as this one if not just on the money line. Machac has played Djokovic tough in the past and even won their second meeting last spring, but the Serb was far less than 100 percent physically in that match – plus he is a whole different beast at Grand Slams. Nowhere is Djokovic better than he is in Melbourne, where 10 of his 24 major titles have come. Machac is in fine form at the moment, but he has a history of physical problems and he is coming off a 5-set struggle against Reilly Opelka on Wednesday. Mensik vs Davidovich Fokina is more of a fair fight, but Mensik appears to have the clear edge. The 19-year-old Czech scored an impressive win over world #6 Casper Ruud in pretty routine fashion during second-round action. He has been playing much better than Davidovich Fokina dating back to last summer and that should be evident once again on Friday. Like Machac, ADF needed 5 sets in the second round – and his was the longest match of the tournament so far (4 hours and 51 minutes against Felix Auger-Aliassime). 

Parlay: Alexander Zverev -1.5 sets over Jake Fearnley and Tommy Paul -1.5 sets over Roberto Carballes Baena (-150) 

Both of these matches should be relatively straightforward for the 2 favorites, to an even greater extent than Djokovic-Machac and Mensik-ADF. Zverev is #2 in the world and is facing an opponent in Fearnley who is outside the top 100. The former college standout at TCU has never been on this kind of stage in the early going of his professional career. Zverev has been absolutely dominant through 2 rounds and I expect more of the same in his next match. Paul required 5 sets in his opener and 4 on Wednesday, but he improved dramatically from the first round to the second and should be playing with confidence. The American has a very favorable third-round draw against the essence of a clay-court specialist in Carballes Baena. Over the course of his career, the Spaniard has won 499 matches on clay while saddled with a terrible 43-64 record on outdoor hard courts. Paul should roll.

Ugo Humbert vs. Arthur Fils Over 39.5 games (-112) 

It will be an all-French affair when Humbert and Fils meet again on Friday. They faced each other in the Tokyo title match this past fall and it was a complete circus. Fils was struggling physically but somehow managed to come back from 3-4, 0-40 down in the second set and saved a championship point at 5-6 in the ensuing tiebreaker before prevailing 5-7, 7-6(6), 6-3. Another competitive contest should be in store for the Melbourne Park fans. Both Frenchmen were awesome in 2024 and have kicked off this season in stellar form, as well. It should be noted that of their 14 combined sets played so far at this event, 11 have been no less competitive than 6-4 – including 5 with scorelines of either 7-5 or 7-6.

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