Aaron Judge Odds and Props — Can Judge Make Yankees’ Fans “All Rise” in 2025?

Judge led the entire majors with 58 home runs last season, and has hit the 50-homer mark three times in his career, hitting a high of 62 in 2022. He’s not a pull hitter, either, as Judge has learned to take advantage of the short right field in Yankee Stadium as a right-handed hitter.

Aaron Judge’s longest home runs of 2024 pic.twitter.com/muzUJvAiNu

— Talkin’ Yanks (@TalkinYanks) December 31, 2024

But it’ll be interesting to see how much protection Judge gets in the lineup. Fellow outfielder Juan Soto is gone, having signed the biggest contract in sports history with the New York Mets. Designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton battled injuries to both elbows last season, and likely won’t start the season with the Yankees.

Outfielder Cody Bellinger was acquired from the Chicago Cubs, but he hasn’t hit more than 30 homers since his 47-HR season in 2019. 37-year-old Paul Goldschmidt was signed to play first base, but he hit 22 homers last year and has been on the decline since 2023.

With all Aaron Judge odds being equal at -120 for this prop bet, I’m going to lean on the under. I think Judge won’t see the pitches he did last year with Soto in the lineup, which isn’t as strong around him. He’ll hit more than 40, but he won’t reach 50.

Judge was third in the American League with 122 runs scored last season, while Soto led with 128. Again, all odds are equal for this Aaron Judge prop, and I just don’t know if the surrounding lineup is strong enough. Judge will get on base, I don’t think there is a question about that. He still has a fantastic eye at the plate. His 133 walks led the AL, just ahead of Soto. The two had a great synergy in 2024.

Juan Soto staring at Aaron Judge every time he gets on base for him pic.twitter.com/pCj9wnZbxv

— Kevin Marin (@TheKevinMarin) October 29, 2024

Now, Judge has Bellinger and Goldschmidt hitting behind him, along with re-signed second baseman Jazz Chisholm. There will be a lot of pressure on them to drive Judge home when he gets on base. I’m wary of Goldschmidt at his age, and that’s why I’m leaning towards the Under at -120 here.

Judge had a career high in RBIs last season with 144, and he had 131 in 2022. He also had 75 in 2023, while playing 106 games due to injury. He has hit the 110-RBI mark three times in his career now.

2024 MLB RBI leader Aaron Judge knocks in his first two of #SpringTraining. pic.twitter.com/fH8xGj53Bi

— MLB (@MLB) March 1, 2025

Judge is projected to hit second in the lineup, but it’ll be interesting to see if manager Aaron Boone moves him down the lineup to give him more RBI opportunities. He was moved to third last season with Soto getting on base in front of him. But the Yankees’ lineup has many left-handed hitters, so Boone is moving him back to second, for now. Judge definitely prefers hitting third.

Aaron Judge on where he’d like to hit in the batting order this season:

“I’d love to hit third again, I told him that since the first day. But, I’ve always been about wherever you need me… I’ll be anywhere that helps shape this lineup the way we need to.” pic.twitter.com/WMJe3TtAh0

— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) February 17, 2025

I’m taking the under here, although I’d be apt to change it if Judge moves back to third in the lineup, and whoever is in front of him shows the ability to get on base.

Judge had 180 hits in 2024, 177 in 2022, and 158 in 2021. If there is one thing I’m confident in, it’s Judge’s ability to hit it with enough contact to get on base.

🚨 Aaron Judge: Take vs. Swing

• This says more about his mentality than anything else.

• “Im up there to hit.” vs. “I hope I don’t get out.”

⭐️ It’s much easier to decide NOT TO swing than it is to decide TO swing. Be the hunter! pic.twitter.com/YIX9EHDbmz

— Baseball IQ (@BaseballIQ_App) February 15, 2025

I’ll actually take the over here at -120, regardless of where he is in the lineup. Judge has one of the best eyes in baseball, and while he might not hit over 50 homers, he’ll get on base.

This Aaron Judge player prop only has an option of Yes, with odds of +5000. He holds the American League record for homers in a season with 62 in 2022, and came close with 58 last year. Judge broke the record set by another Yankee legend, Roger Maris, who went deep 61 times in 1961.

Two years ago today. Aaron Judge breaks the AL home run record with home run #62, cementing himself in baseball history forever. pic.twitter.com/BBCGe7cCwW

— The Yankee Report (@YankeeReport_) October 4, 2024

But Barry Bonds’ record of 73 homers in 2001 is safe for now. Judge won’t break his record, and as I’ve noted, he’s going to have to work hard just to get to 50 in 2025. So, I’m avoiding these Aaron Judge HR odds. Still, keep an eye on the start he gets off to this season.