A Look at the NFL Divisional Round Odds and Trends

A handful of notable trends are in play for the NFL’s divisional round.

As of Wednesday evening, there are three clear favorites in Kansas City, Detroit, and Philadelphia. Baltimore is a short favorite, but there’s a chance that number flips in Buffalo’s favor by kickoff.

There’s a distinct difference in the over/unders with two totals in the 50s and two in the low 40s.

Here’s a look at all of the spread and over/under trends for the eight remaining postseason participants.

 

Texans at Chiefs (-8.5) (Over/Under: 41.5) 

Kansas City presents a peculiar case when it comes to spread betting.

The Chiefs have not covered a spread of more than a touchdown all season. They are 0-4 ATS in those spots and they will likely close above seven points by the time kickoff rolls around on Saturday.

On the other hand, Houston has not been an underdog of more than 6.5 points all season. The Texans are 4-3 ATS as an underdog, but they did not cover the spread of three against Kansas City in December.

The over hit in the regular-season meeting, and that number closed one point higher than the current total of 41.5.

Houston is 4-0 to the over when the total closed at 41.5 or less, while Kansas City is 4-0 to the under when the total ends up at 42 or lower.

The Chiefs have the most recent playoff history of any team left, so their trends are best to follow. The Chiefs are 3-3 ATS as a favorite of six or more in the playoffs during the Patrick Mahomes era. They are 10-2 ATS with spreads of six points or less.

 

Commanders at Lions (-9.5) (O/U: 55.5)

Everyone thinks Commanders/Lions will be a shootout because of Detroit’s season-long struggles on defense.

The over went 4-0 in Lions games in December, but they reversed course and held the Vikings to nine points and hit the under by 16.5 points in the regular-season finale.

Only two Lions games closed with a total of 55.5 or higher. The Lions went 1-1 to the over in that small sample size.

Washington hasn’t had a game close with a total above 52 points all season. They are 2-1 to the under in three games where the total closed above 50.

Something to consider for PA sports betting this weekend is that the Commanders haven’t been more than a 7.5-point underdog all season. They covered and won outright against the Bengals as a 7.5-point underdog.

Meanwhile, the Lions are 2-1 ATS with a double-digit spread in their favor. They’re 4-2 ATS as a favorite of seven or more points.

 

Rams at Eagles (-6) (O/U: 43.5) 

The Eagles are 6-3 ATS as a favorite of less than a touchdown.

One of those covers came as a three-point road favorite against the Rams on November 24th.

The Birds have trended toward the under in games where low totals are posted. They are 4-2 to the under when the number closes below 44.

The Rams are 4-6 ATS as an underdog and they covered the two biggest spreads that went against them this season. They won outright as a six-point dog against the 49ers on September 22 and covered a seven-point number against the Seahawks in Week 18. Only the cover against San Francisco applies to the overall trends since the starters were rested in Week 18.

Los Angeles hit the over in all three games where the total closed below 43 points.

 

Ravens (-1.5) at Bills (O/U: 51.5)

If the spread holds, Buffalo would be an underdog for the second time this season against the Ravens.

Buffalo is 2-2 ATS and 2-2 straight up as an underdog and it has only been a favorite lower than three points twice this season. The Bills are 2-0 ATS as a short favorite with one of those covers coming against Kansas City. That’s important to note if the number flips back in their favor.

Baltimore has only been an underdog once this entire season, and that was against the Chiefs. The Ravens are 2-1 ATS as a favorite of a field goal or less.

The more notable Ravens trend is with the total. They are 4-1 to the over when the total closed at 50 points or higher. The Bills are 2-0 to the over when the total ended up at 50 or higher.

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