2025 Free Agency 2025 Off-Season 55 Free Agency Best Sports Picks Dynasty dynasty fantasy football Free Agency Free Agents

55 Free Agency Implications for Dynasty Managers

March 22, 2025
financialfreedomllc20

Wait, so why did you pick 55?

For wordsmiths/logophiles out there, pentapentacontaphilia (the love of the number 55) can 100% be blamed on our own Mike Wright (and Sammy Hagar). I’ve shared about the origins of the Footballers love of FIFTY-FIVE(!) before on Twitter.

But do you experience the strange phenomenon that this number shows up wayyy more than it should? That is the Baader-Meinhor phenomenon, or the frequency illusion. It is a simple bias that causes you to feel like something is more common than it really is. It’s like when you notice a certain car for the first time on the road… and then you just can’t stop seeing it. Like if you were in a car driving 55…

People always ask if we force that number into the podcast… Nope. With enough stats, it will show up on its own. But if a number is at 54.6… you bet I’m rounding up. One year, I compiled all of those 55 stats in an article. Never doing that again!

In this article, let’s walk through 55(!) of the biggest implications/connections/inferences from the most important free agency moves for dynasty and projecting the course for teams over multiple years.

On Wednesday’s Fantasy Footballers’ Dynasty Podcast, Betz and I talked through the Free Agency Implications for Dynasty leagues.

 

NFL Franchises

1. The value of a dollar has changed.

Maybe it’s taken you a minute by every new contract that comes across your timeline might be initially met with a “oh, wow; that’s a lot of money for that guy!” We have to retrain our brains when we see contracts knowing the initial number pushed on social media is something the agent puts out. The big figure is not the end all as we scour the web for information about the guaranteed money and void years in contracts. However, the free agent money we saw a decade ago when the Fantasy Footballers podcast started looks a bit different.

2. Money must be spent.

As a follow up to the previous point, keep in mind that NFL teams are subject to a minimum salary cap, also known as the “salary floor”. According to the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), teams are required to spend at least 90% of the salary cap in cash on their players over a four-year period. This rule ensures that teams invest a substantial amount in player salaries and prevents them from hoarding all money (it’s ours!) or spending too little on talent (our product sucks!).

For example, with the 2025 salary cap projected to be around $279.2 million (per OTC), teams would need to spend at least $251 million in cash on player salaries over a four-year cycle. This is a league-wide and team-specific rolling average, so teams don’t necessarily have to hit that exact number every single year. When we look at overall spending for certain teams and the contracts they shared, keep in mind owners can’t just sit around and sit on cash. It must be spent.

Per OvertheCap.com, here are the teams that shelled out the most so far in 2025’s free agency:

3. Free Agency shifts dynasty valuations, for better or worse.

In a game predicated on being fantasy, “dynasty tiers” are made based on personal choice. This isn’t meant to belittle your decisions or somehow poo poo on the process of creating dynasty tiers. It is more holding with an open hand how exact and precise this endeavor is supposed to be. In this format, you are projecting over multiple years starting a dance between talent, age, pedigree, production, team situation, and contract status. You might value one or two of those traits above the others but they all should be factored in.

Certain sites like KeepTradeCut (KTC) use crowd-sourced decisions to try and calculate perceived “value” of each players. We reference this site sometimes on the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty podcast and certainly find it as a valuable part of the dynasty discussion especially considering we’ve been doing a KeepTradeCut segment on the podcast since 2016. However, I do need to bring up the pros and cons of “dynasty value” sites. The values and figures (based on people voting on the site) eventually condense into one number. This value might feel like a true number and it is true to the site. However, it is an arbitrary value better used as a 3rd or 4th tie-breaker in evaluating trades rather than a set figure: “this is how much this player is worth!“.

For example, take C.J. Stroud who saw his dynasty “value” rise as high as QB2 on KTC from the addition of Stefon Diggs in early April. It inflated his value. Check out Evan Engram. Heading into March, he was the TE24 and he jumped 10 spots in a span of two weeks after signing on with Denver. You can obviously tell yourself a story (and I will below in the TE section) about Engram’s value but what shifted was the landing spot, not the player. If you have Engram, you can likely flip for some picks if he’s your TE2.

If you have Engram, you can likely use this opportunity to cash in. Teams trading for Engram are likely imbuing this value because the vision of the player became that much clearer. It was fuzzy before (Where will he go?) and now we are connecting dots and telling a story of why he suddenly jumps 10 spots in perceived value based on people answering a KTC question when they get to the site. I use sites like this as a gauge or taking temperature NOT as a hard-lined value. These values are not steady year-over-year.

4. Offensive regimes are not as long-lived as you might think.

A couple of statistics worth considering that highlights the short-term nature of offensive staffs:

  • Over the last nine years, NFL teams hired 60 different head coaches. Only 27 have had play calling experience including four newcomers this year: Ben Johnson, Brian Schottenheimer, Liam Coen, and Kellen Moore.
  • Of the 32 NFL teams, only 14 of the OCs (44%) employed for 2025 will be play-callers.
  • 21 of the current OCs (66%) have been on the job with their respective teams fewer than two years.
  • The longest-tenured OCs (Adam Stenavich, Frank Smith, Wes Phillips, & Mike Kafka) have been in that position with their respective teams for just 3(!) years.

The takeaway for dynasty is taking a step back and consider that the “system” and coaching personnel in place likely will have more turnover than you realize. Don’t bank on the band staying together for very long.

5. Don’t get too comfortable with newly formed stacks.

I brought this up on last week’s Dynasty Podcast but the newly formed stacks rarely stay together for very long. The rush of excitement for new landing spots can often over-inflate values of players as we dream of what this QB/WR combo can do together. You will see a ton of new graphics flood your social media of these pairings brimming with optimism (‘Who is going to stop this offense?’) You, being a smart dynasty manager, can take a step back and see that hype is often profitable. Check your league for pairings and use these real-life “acquisition windows” to work out trade negotiations in your league. A majority of the time you can sell the idea of a new connection.

Rookie Picks

6. Cam Ward, Welcome to Nashville!

For Titans camp, there was almost zero buzz on QBs in Free Agency… except for the small group of Brandon Allen truthers who were stoked when he signed on as a backup here. The signals (and betting markets) are leaning heavily towards the Titans staying put and taking the Miami QB 1st overall. The team did make a commitment to the offensive line with several additions in free agency:

  • LT Dan Moore (4-years, $82 million)
  • G Kevin Zeitler (1-year, $9 million)
  • G Blake Hance (1 year, $1.3 million)

Last year’s 1st rounder JC Latham will kick out to RT with the following additions giving potential No. 1 pick Cam Ward at least some semblance of an offensive line to work with. The Moore signing was seen as a massive overpay across the league but it’s clear the new GM (Mike Borgonzi) is paying for the sins of the previous regime as the roster feels multiple years away from competing.

Questions remain: How will Ward fit with this coaching staff and skill group? Is the offensive line good enough for a QB who likes to hold the football? We highlighted Ward in the QB prospects episode mentioning his range of outcomes in rookie drafts.

7. The NFL QB demands outweigh the rookie supply.

As we’ve stated a few times, the NFL’s desire for franchise QB does not always match it’s supply. We know at least four teams that are heading towards the NFL Draft without a clear plan at QB for 2025:

This list is not counting teams like the Jets, Colts, or Saints who seem to only have short-term solutions in place.

Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders have their own concerns. Ward has the size, mobility, and arm strength that matched his 4313 & 39 final season at Miami but his style of play might not translate to the NFL the way Caleb Williams had a tough time adjusting inside the pocket and when pressure was in his face. Sanders comes with the family name and perhaps one of the purest throwing motions of any QB of recent memory. There are some concerns with his turnovers and pressure-to-sack ratio that certainly will need to be cleaned up at the next level. These two are in a tier of their own (in terms of likely NFL Draft capital) as Alabama’s Jalen Milroe and Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart are all over the map in current mock drafts. Milroe’s rushing ability catches your eye after 20 rushing TDs this past year but Dart also possesses some sneaky rushing upside with the highest scramble rate in the class. With Ward and Sanders likely going as 1st round NFL Draft picks, SuperFlex drafts might have a few QBs pushed up the boards thanks to the other teams listed above. Keep in mind that in any other year Milroe and Dart wouldn’t sniff warranting heavy rookie draft capital in dynasty leagues.

8. Landing spot immunity is a skill earned; start working on it.

While the free agency additions help us clear out some of the landing spots for rookies, we (dynasty managers) are too easily swayed. I am often quite forgetful not learning from past mistakes. Or misremembering what I thought at the time. Conventional wisdom holds that the landing spot plays a crucial role in determining a player’s output in their first year but our perception is relative and often hazy when we look back and ask, “why did I pick this guy?” In my research, reaching on RBs doesn’t usually pay off. When you survey the list of the rookie RBs drafted in the 3rd round or later of the NFL draft and where managers took them in dynasty, it might cause you to rethink your life.

  • Of the 40 RBs selected since 2015 in dynasty rookie drafts, only five became RB1s in their 1st year.
  • Yet, 13 of those RBs with that type of NFL draft capital (3rd round or worse) ended up as top-5 rookie picks!

If you want a follow-up on this subject, one of our writers Matt DiSorbo wrote an article: What Matters More for Rookies: Skill or Landing Spot? He wanted to take this idea a step further than just including draft capital. It’s hard to quantify “skill” or “landing spot” but in his methodology, he tries to get as close as possible using fantasy points as a metric. His findings for the two major positions were thus:

  • Skill and landing spot effects are equal and opposite for RBs
  • Skill is much more important for WRs.
Ohio State running back Quinshon Judkins (RB18) during the 2025 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

9. NFL “team needs” is fantasy football mythology.

We all love playing pretend GM which is the beauty and glory of fantasy football: it’s just plain fun. We like to evaluate our team’s strengths and weaknesses and forecast what players could help fill voids on the team. If you’ve been attached to your NFL team for years, there are likely a lot of holes you can identify.

But needs are relative when roster construction is at the forefront of many GMs’ minds. There is a dance between their salary cap, their current roster, the landscape of that position in the NFL, and free agency. I’ve written about NFL Draft misinformation and sifting through headlines numerous times on this site.

“Team A likes/needs this player” taking a step back: what incentive does a billion-dollar organization have to leak out this type of information ahead of the NFL Draft? (aside from smokescreens) Perhaps even more important, 2025 offers us one of the most non-consensus NFL drafts we’ve seen in the modern era. How would you know if that player was even available when you’re on the clock?

The Eagles were a popular spot for LSU WR Justin Jefferson  at 21st overall and he slipped in the draft because we all concluded, “he was a slot-only WR”. ESPN had him going to the Eagles in both Todd McShay & Mel Kiper Jr.’s mock drafts. On the the Fantasy Footballers DFS & Betting Podcast, we did too! Alas, they took Jalen Reagor (hold back your laughter) and Justin Jefferson is basically the hottest thing on planet earth. This exercise strolling down memory lane isn’t a chance to dunk on anyone but rather reminds us that team needs that have been cemented into our brains aren’t necessarily how NFL teams decide to pick.

The takeaway for dynasty is to not pencil in picks ahead of time. Don’t react and make trades in your league because “I know this guy is going to this team” or “he won’t be there at the 1.05.” Chaos is about to ensue; let it happen!

10. NFL teams are preparing for a rush of rookie RB activity.

After the “top RBs” started signing, the writing on the wall became clearer that the NFL did not quite value them the way we saw Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs command attention last year. Add the following adages to your team’s playbook:

  • Your veterans will slowly lose value over the next two months.
  • Your buying window to “lock up” a backfield should be in June or July.
  • Don’t expect every rookie to steal the job from capable veterans.

11. The Bears are being mocked for Ashton Jeanty… non-stop. 

The Bears pushed their chips into the middle of the table bolstering the interior offensive line in free agency with veteran OG Kevin Zeitler, outbidding multiple other teams for C Drew Dalman, and trading for OG Jonah Jackson. The run game in general was pretty inefficient as Chicago ranked 28th in EPA per rush attempt. While there has been an overwhelming rush of excitement for Ashton Jeanty to go here at 10th overall, we don’t necessarily need to write that pick down in ink just yet. If anything, this period should open you up to possibility of two running backs being viable for fantasy in Chicago. Yes, D’Andre Swift was not part of Ben Johnson‘s regime but that said, Swift was used enough (253 total opportunities) and played 17 games, so he ‘got there’ as the RB19. I would not completely right him off although his contract makes it seem that 2025 will be his final one if they add a rookie RB.

12. This group of rookie TEs should be elevated in your mind.

The last couple of weeks of NFL activity have made this abundantly clear: there are very few difference-making TEs. While Evan Engram is the “headline” name, the other contracts signal that the league is finding more and more young talent to start right away. While Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers‘ TE1 seasons might not be the norm (as we highlighted in Trending or Ending), the days of “wait a few years” on TEs might be changing.

Investing in Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland is taking a shot at more than just the TE10 on an annual basis. This thread from our own Marvin Elequin is worth your time if you want to get your head around this year’s group.

13. The late first round and early second round in rookie drafts should be fruitful.

We usually give the opposite advice for dynasty managers: trade those picks!

However, the crop of players I’m seeing in mock drafts are certainly enticing. This is a current SuperFlex rookie mock draft that is under way I’m participating in with the FootClan.

14. The WR needy teams in the late 1st round are juicy… for NFL purposes.

These late 1st round WRs are connected with playoff teams.

Quarterbacks

15. The Seahawks trying to cash a parlay with Sam Darnold.

Regardless of your opinion of Darnold, consider what the Seahawks are trying to accomplish coming off a 10-win season in 2024 heading into 2025:

  • Vacate 2 of your top-3 WR (32% of team’s targets)
  • Starting QB (98% of snaps)
  • New offensive coordinator

I need to do even more digging to see if an NFL team has ever pieced together all 3-legs of this parlay in one single off-season. It was clear HC Mike Macdonald was not too happy with his regime as OC Ryan Grubb was let go and the passing game received a massive makeover with Darnold and Cooper Kupp now in tow. After going from 5th to 24th in turnovers last year, Macdonald wants to win with defense and ball control. With Klint Kubiak as OC, expect an emphasis on the running game and a commitment to use more 2TE sets and the occasional fullback. The Athletic’s Michael-Shawn Dugar had a great team read highlighting the fact they’re hoping he becomes a “point guard“. Hopefully you aren’t expecting a repeat of 35+ passing TDs and 14 wins from Darnold if you are a Seahawks fan.

Darnold should be viewed more in the mid-QB2 range within this offensive structure and his contract details are really important for managers to consider if you think he is a long-term solution. It was reported as 3 years, $100.5 million (agents love that stuff!) but it is essentially a 1-year $37.5 million contract. If Seattle want to move on after the 2025 season, they can with no dead money (as long as Darnold is healthy and passes a physical. The guaranteed language within the contract states he would only see a $17.5 million injury guarantee beyond the 2025 season. In dynasty, we call that shaky territory that the team traded for him is basically telling him “prove it to us in Year 1 or we move on”.

16. The Texans are playing a dangerous game with C.J. Stroud.

Rewind the clock to a year ago. The Texans added Stefon Diggs to the mix at the beginning of April and Stroud’s ADP in dynasty went through the roof. We’re talking reaching as high as QB2 on KeepTradeCut’s crowd-sourced rankings. It was a rough year if you invested in Stroud highly in a SuperFlex start up or traded for him. The biggest difference between rookie & sophomore seasons: pressure. Stroud’s 235 QB pressures were the most in the NFL taking 52 sacks in 17 games. He only threw to his 1st Read 60% of the time (3rd lowest rate among QBs) as the roster dealt with so many injuries.

The Texans are betting on a new play-caller (Nick Caley) being a solution while removing basically their entire offensive line from existence Thanos-style. LT Laremy Tunsil’s exit to Washington is the big headline. We compared Stroud to other QBs near him preferring Caleb Williams and Bo Nix but remaining on Stroud’s side when comparing to Drake Maye. Check out Stroud’s dynasty rank among other QBs in the Dynasty Pass startup ranks.

17. The Commanders are signaling they are all-in… but what about 2026?

It’s hard to adjust Jayden Daniels‘ dynasty value much more than where we have him right now: QB3 behind Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. The additions of the aforementioned OT Laremy Tunsil and WR Deebo Samuel make 2025 a fun “next step” season for the rookie sensation. I wrote an article last offseason entitled Jayden Daniels Range of Outcomes & Recent Dynasty History where he was compared among the elites in fantasy thanks to his historic scramble rate. I added that “a scramble is the most valuable QB rush attempt between the 20s worth more than two times as many fantasy points as a designed run in 2023. QBs with 20+ scramble attempts averaged over 7 yards per carry last year.“ After setting the NFL record for scrambles, he is just that dude.

If we could nitpick a few things from his otherworldly rookie season, his pressure to sack ratio was very rookie-esque. At 27.6%, it is still a bugaboo in young QBs ranking 43rd of 47 qualifying QBs with 100+ dropbacks. We also saw a ton of short attempts with only 10% going for 20+ air yards. Will teams adjust in 2025?

Regardless, Daniels is set up for success now but keep in mind the age of his weapons and how ALL of the starters are free agents (currently) for 2026:

They need a young blood at the offensive skill positions. We aren’t docking Daniels by any means due to his insane rushing upside but we do need to forecast beyond 2025. The cast of characters surrounding him will look totally different in the coming years. He is likely immune to the turnover but we can’t stick our heads in the sand and ignore it.

18. There is nowhere to go but up for Caleb & the Bears?

Ben Johnson as the prized coaching hire of the off-season and it seems like Chicago is already making strides in a ton of areas. They bolstered the interior of the offensive line in free agency, hopefully able to fix some of Caleb Williams‘ bugs from his rookie year:

  • 68 Sacks Taken — MOST in the NFL and Tied for the 3rd Most All-Time
  • 30.6% Pressure to Sack Rate — Only Will Levis was worse
  • 41 Throw-Aways — MOST in NFL by a wide margin (11 more than next QB)
  • 69% Catchable Target Rate — 44th out of 47 qualifying QBs
  • DEAD LAST in Pass Expected Points Added among QBs

He struggled versus man coverage but we can also explain it away citing the offensive play-calling ineptitude of Shane Waldron. During his three years as OC in Detroit, Johnson’s offenses had the three highest 4th down go %s of any team since 2016. We expect this CHI offense to take a massive step forward in 2025 and dynasty managers are already banking on it. You did see some ceiling outcomes with five top-6 fantasy finishes on the season and his rushing was a nice little bonus averaging 4.8 rush attempts and 28.4 rushing yards per game.  If managers in your league are having Jayden Daniels regrets with their rookie picks from last year, sliding into their DMs trying to make a deal for Caleb isn’t a bad idea at this time of the year.

19. Geno Smith can be a solid QB2 if you open your eyes.

The Raiders must not have loved the prospect of picking a QB 6th overall considering they traded for Geno Smith to be their guy for the foreseeable future. Smith reunites with Pete Carroll and should sign a contract extension in the near future. If you re-examine his 2024 season, his efficiency numbers were right there:

  • Set Career-Highs in Completion % (70.4), Passing Yards, Wins (10), Pass Success %
  • 4th among ALL QBs in Completion Percentage Over Expectation

For fantasy, his TD rate was the killer (3.6%) as he had just 2(!) total games of multiple TD passes from Weeks 1-15. He certainly is preferred over Sam Darnold moving forward in dynasty as we think the Raiders are in a good position to move up in our minds.

Oct 20, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) scrambles against the Atlanta Falcons in the third quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

20. Justin Fields is a true fantasy versus reality conversation.

Fields was under center for the Steelers in 2024 in Weeks 1-6, leading the team to a 4-2 record before Mike Tomlin opted for Russell Wilson. He receives $30 million guaranteed to begin the year as the Jets signal caller. Fields still has his issues as an NFL passer, but he runs which translates to gold for fantasy. In six games as a starter last year, Fields averaged 9.2 rush attempts and 38.5 rushing yards per game. However, he likely isn’t guaranteed a starting job beyond 2025 and it’s very possible the Jets use a 2nd round pick on a project like Jaxson Dart or Jalen Milroe. For fantasy, this works; for the NFL, it’s clear they aren’t so sure.

21. The Colts passing game will remain limited.

Anthony Richardson, you’re officially on notice. GM Chris Ballard has talked publicly about creating competition in the QB room, and he backed it up by paying Danny Dimes $14 million in free agency. It’s obviously not starter money, but it’s top of the league backup money. In other words, Richardson is on thin ice entering his third year as a pro. On paper, we expect A Rich to enter camp as the starter, but don’t be surprised if Jones starts some games for the Colts in 2025. In dynasty SuperFlex formats, Jones should be scooped up and stashed at the end of your bench. We know he’s got his issues as a starter, but much like Richardson, he can put up fantasy points with his legs as evident by his 32 career rushing yards per game across 68 starts.

22. Be prepared for the bridge QB competing.

While the top of the NFL draft is where most of the attention is diverted, you, being the astute dynasty manager, understand there is more gold to be unearthed at the QB position. A year ago, Sam Darnold signed a 1-year, $10 million deal with Minnesota and we honestly thought very little of it after the team traded up to take J.J. McCarthy at 10th overall. While Darnold might the exception to the rule, it is worth remembering how trigger-happy we can be with young QBs. For every Jayden Daniels taken the top-5, we can recount 3x as many failures (Zach Wilson & Trey Lance say hello!) where a veteran or non-sexy QB came in to play meaningful snaps. We know you are scouring the waiver wire in your SuperFlex league like a hawk but don’t dismiss signings like Mason Rudolph, Mac Jones, or, hilariously enough, Zach Wilson.

23. Looking ahead to 2026…

As I’ve shared before, roughly 1/3rd of the NFL turns over year-to-year when it comes to starting QBs. We have at least five spots that are currently giant question marks going into NFL Draft season but you can count on at least 5-6 more that will be changing hands in 2026.

Here is a fun stroll down memory lane if you want to look back to 2018:

Running Backs

24. This is a two-year experiment in Minnesota.

Now that we know Darnold is in SEA, this is JJ McCarthy‘s team moving forward. (Chill out Aaron Rodgers and stop trying to make fetch happen) We love the pass-catching weapons in Minnesota, and HC Kevin O’Connell has worked wonders with whoever his signal callers have been (Kirk Cousins, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Darnold) en route to scoring the 8th most total fantasy points at the QB position over the last three years. We are bullish on Minnesota’s competitiveness to win and win right now. Aaron Jones (2 years, $13 million guaranteed) and Jordan Mason (2 years, $7.5 million guaranteed) provide a nice 1-2 punch. Jones saw the most opportunities of his career in his age-29 season and benefitted from some wild game scripts. The Vikings were leading or tied on 81% of his carries, the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. Mason was a monster taking over for CMC in San Fran with 41% of his carries going for 5+ yards, a top-5 rate in the league. This is a backfield that should be in positive game scripts.

Although both seem like tough assets to trade for, Mason might be the cheaper one to throw a late 2nd/early 3rd round rookie pick during your league’s rookie draft.

25. The Cowboys’ RB moves are puzzling.

If you are playing in a fantasy league in 2022, Javonte Williams & Miles Sanders might get you all hot and bothered. But Jerry, we are very much removed from those days. It’s wild to think about how much that ACL injury de-railed Williams’ NFL career. Prior to that complex knee injury in 2022, Williams was a tackle breaking machine who looked like a potential top-10 back in this league for years to come. Perhaps a change of scenery will be good for Williams, who’s still only 25 years old. While we’re intrigued with this landing spot in Dallas, the contract ($3 million) doesn’t exactly scream “RB1.” There’s a good chance Dallas drafts someone to pair with Javonte and Miles. If it’s a Day 3 pick, Williams might be a value…if it’s a Day 1 or Day 2 pick, things could go sideways pretty quickly for the former Bronco. For now, we wait…

26. The Seahawks are signaling to us loud and clear: we want to run the ball!

New OC Klint Kubiak has shared multiple times about his preference to run 2TE sets and incorporate the dreaded fullback in this offense. We are all aboard the Kenneth Walker III train. Before an injury shut him down over the final two months of the season, he was averaging 15.9 fantasy points per game and his major uptick in the passing game has our eyes perked. He averaged five targets per game including six games of 4+ receptions; that is astounding considering he had four total the previous two years. He’s a menace to tackle ranking #1 among all RBs in forced missed tackle rate and the Seahawks seem to be signaling with Kubiak that they want to emphasize the run more in 2025. Walker is still only 24 years old and we expect him to see either a contract extension with Seattle or a multi-year deal elsewhere after this season.

27. The Chargers are busy up front. 

With the addition of RG Mekhi Becton, it seems Jim Harbaugh is serious about beefing up the offensive line. Selecting OT Joe Alt at 5th overall was a fulfillment of the prophecy he made in early 2024 before the NFL Draft. In true Harbaugh fashion, he responded to a reporter’s question with a question of his own: “What position group depends on no other position group to be good?”

I stated on the Dynasty Podcast that the Chargers are 1-2 playmakers away from being a top-5 scoring offense. They built in the trenches and finding a WR/TE in the draft could certainly take this team over the top.

However, it is the RB position that I am paying close attention to. Najee Harris signed a deal that originally received a ton of attention for the $9+ million figure first reported. The contract details put this closer to the $4-5 million range.  He’ll never really be a true difference maker for an NFL franchise, but Harris has proven to be a durable and dependable back, and that carries a ton of value in NFL circles, especially to a guy like Harbaugh. We expect the Bolts to add more to their RB room to git their man/gap scheme (Dylan Sampson please?), but Najee could be a solid RB2 for fantasy if he gets the bulk of the touches in this offense.

28. Yes, Jaylen Warren got the tender… and now what?

The Steelers bowling ball was given a 2nd round tender worth over $5 million signaling he will be a significant part of their running game in 2025 with Najee Harris now across the country in Los Angeles. While the Steelers likely will add another RB in the NFL Draft, Warren is set up to be the lead dog in Arthur Smith’s run-heavy scheme. Is that a good thing?

He’s also older than you’d imagine (26.3) despite playing just three years in the league. Warren never really has been a big workload guy so assuming he suddenly sees 15-20 touches a game is a big jump. More opportunity can often lead to a down turn in efficiency and it’s hard to be extremely bullish if the offense doesn’t score a lot. As we shared on Thursday’s Liar, Liar segment, through 3 seasons and 604 routes run, he has NEVER gotten closer to the end zone than the opponents’ 4-yard line after a reception.

Yep, he’s never scored a receiving TD (which doesn’t mean he won’t in 2025) but his red zone role has always been lacking. Also, do we expect this Steelers offense to be one we buy into this year? Expect Pittsburgh to take someone in Rounds 3 or 4 of the NFL Draft perhaps as a hammer (D.J. Giddens?) compliment to Warren. He’s a hold for now unless someone is willing to give you a late 1st round rookie pick.

29. The Chiefs backfield is going to frustrate you again.

Kansas City backfield remains an enigma. Last year, Isiah Pacheco was getting all the love despite the fears that a former 7th round draft pick might not hold his weight in dynasty leagues. His injury was devastating as he looked good through the first two weeks of the season. From almost out of the league to playing in a Super Bowl for the team that drafted him all those years ago, to say Kareem Hunt’s 2024 season was surprising would be an understatement. KC signed Hunt after about a month into the season when they lost Pacheco to a fractured fibula, and he was ultra reliable for that team, getting what was blocked and keeping the offense on schedule as the lead ball carrier. The veteran turns 30 in August returning to KC on a cheap short-term deal to complement Pacheco, entering the final year of his rookie deal. Elijah “Missile” signs a one-year deal in Kansas City amidst a backfield that certainly could use his explosive speed for a team that ranked dead last in runs of 15+ yards in 2024. Investing in this backfield is probably a fool’s errand. Chances are the back who ends the season as the lead guy might not even currently be on the team.

Wide Receivers

30. Not much changes with the Bengals big bags.

We can finally move past the organizational finger pointing we’ve all done to the Bengals. After both of their WRs secured the bag, we can lock them in with Joe Burrow for the next four years. Chase remains our unquestioned 1.01 in start up drafts while Higgins slides in as a low-end WR1. Last year, he ranked 2nd in the entire league in fantasy points per game. Defensively, they lose Sam Hubbard to retirement and we’ll wait and see on Trey Hendrickson. We know defense year to year is generally not sticky, but this is setting up to be a very young defense setting up for more and more shootouts.

31. The Steelers are going for the Bash Bros. strategy.

For Mighty Ducks enthusiasts, this is a welcomed strategy. (You need enforcers!) For fantasy purposes, you should be highly concerned. Two guys (Metcalf and Pickens) that can win down field but may lack true ‘WR1’ capabilities…their skill sets seem to overlap a bit? We currently have Metcalf listed as a “trade away” candidate in our Dynasty Pass.

DK’s name still holds a ton of value and intimidation for your opponents, and others in your league might be enamored by the huge contract he just signed. We have him ranked outside of WR2-ville but sites like KTC have him at WR24.

32. George Pickens was and is still overvalued in dynasty.

Last off-season, I was bullish on Pickens as someone who could flourish in Arthur Smith’s 2WR system. But the bigger question for this offense: will there be enough volume OR Efficiency to go around for Pickens & Metcalf?

  • Arthur Smith PROE by season: 29th, 32nd, 31st
  • Arthur Smith WR FPPG by season: 30th, 32nd, 29th

Pickens is being valued in top-30 WR dynasty territory yet his fantasy finishes three years into his career without DK Metcalf are disappointing: WR36, 26, 41. Woof. The question of who his QB also remains.

33. The Chris Godwin wave of excitement needs to be tempered.

Before devastatingly dislocating his ankle in Week 7, Chris Godwin was on a roll on pace to crush all of his previous career highs. He was the WR2 in fantasy behind only Ja’Marr Chase as an impact slot receiver with Baker Mayfield. He was brought back to Tampa Bay on a home town discount although his age (29), injury, the emergence of Jalen McMillan and the exodus of OC Liam Coen does bring some variables into the equation. His asking price around the league ($30 million per season) seems a bit elevated based on the current market. In dynasty, we love that Baker is tied to Godwin but his recovery timeline needs to be in view. Per our Injury Tracker, “From a healing standpoint, Godwin will be cleared by training camp and should enter the regular season without limitation. That said, as we’ve seen from other players who have recovered from this type of injury (Tank Dell, Tony Pollard), it does take time to ramp up to pre-injury levels of play. Godwin could get off to a slower start in 2025 but should be back to full strength in the second half of the season.” He’s being paid like a high-end WR2 but for dynasty, we view him more in the WR3 category. If you can

34. The McMillan window is closing folks!

Gonna take this straight from Mike’s Trade Away candidates section in the Dynasty Pass: McMillan’s end of season run was historic totaling 7 TDs over his final 5 games for 2nd MOST for a rookie WR behind only Randy Moss for that span. Trading away McMillan is a gamble given how well he flashed as a rookie, but the fact that TB signed Godwin to a big three-year deal says this team doesn’t envision him as a starter any time soon. There also is a chance his TD rate is just plain unsustainable joining the likes of Jahan Dotson and Gabe Davis as rookies whose TD totals were not congruent with their target share. He is an up-in-the-air name that you could flip for a gain if someone in your league thinks the end of year outcome is the norm moving forward.

Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

35. The Rams are going all-in expecting Adams to be the difference.

Let’s not forget…Rams were a couple of plays away from knocking off the Eagles in the snow. After re-working Matthew Stafford’s deal and signing Davante Adams to replace Cooper Kupp, they think there is still something left in the tank. How big of an upgrade is Davante Adams over Cooper Kupp? Or is it an upgrade? Per ESPN’s Open Score, he ranked 15th in the NFL, 25th in YPRR (2.04), and 4th in expected fantasy points per game. While the bottom can fall out of any player, consider Adams a solid WR2 for the 2025 season with the baked in upside if something were to happen to Puka Nacua. Counting on more production in 2026 is probably not where your head should be despite his insane track record for the last decade.

36. Kupp ain’t washed but he’s also not Cooper Kupp anymore.

Over the last week, the #1 Question in fantasy football world: Is Kupp washed or was he phased out of the offense in LA?

His YPRR trended downward (3.12 > 2.40 > 1.77 > 1.88) from his Offensive Player of the Year whirlwind of 2021. (What a magical time to be alive). However, it is worth noting that he was a top-5 WR with Puka Nacua on the field with him from Weeks 8-14. The final month of the season was rough but he can still produce WR2/3 numbers for fantasy.

The bigger question: how is Kupp going to fit in Kubiak’s system? Last year with New Orleans, the Saints were 31st in 3WR sets and with JSN (80% slot) and Kupp (65%) both have been exclusively 3-wide guys.

37. JSN is a hold so don’t abandon ship!

There is some panic in the streets about Jaxon Smith-Njigba and what to do with him in dynasty. He’s looking around Fresh Prince style in the living room with tears asking where everyone went. Betz and I discussed his value on this week’s FootCast (available only for FootClan members) but apart from someone offering two first round picks, I’m staying put. He is one of six players with an 100+ catch season Before turning 23 joining Larry Fitzgerald, Juju Smith-Schuster, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, and Malik Nabers. That is elite territory and while you might have an incoming 95/950/4 type of season, he is still a viable weekly contributor albeit not a top-10 WR like he was in 2024. Trading him away now is pulling the rip cord too early. Enjoy the ride and wait this out: you have a young, productive WR in dynasty. Be excited!

38. The 49ers are throwing a ton of spaghetti against the wall.

As the saying goes, let’s see what sticks. If you’re a 49ers fan, you’re just ready to move on after what was a hot fart of a season that was defined by injuries. Of course, the Christian McCaffrey saga happened, Brandon Aiyuk tore his ACL, rookie WR Ricky Pearsall was shot in the chest in late August, All-Pro LT Trent Williams missed time throughout the year, and even Nick Bosa dealt with an injury. The 6-11 record definitely tells the story here, but this team is obviously much better than their record indicates. After trading away Deebo Samuel, the remaining pieces in San Francisco’s pass-catching corps are somewhat puzzling to sort out.

The torn ACL and MCL in his Aiyuk’s right knee definitely kills his value but perhaps flipping him for a 1st round rookie pick is the type of reset your roster needs. We expect Ricky Pearsall to take a steal forward and George Kittle showcased that he might be the most consistent part of this offense outside of a healthy CMC. Jauan Jennings should have a big role in 2025 again but he also could easily not hold any value beyond this year. The addition of WR Demarcus Robinson is the WR3 your girlfriend told you not to worry about until he occasionally jumps in for a monster game with two TDs. Pearsall is probably the only one worth investing in long-term. It sure feels like this version of the Niners as we know it now won’t be around much longer, but for 2025 at least, this roster is strong enough to make a run in the post-season.

39. The Buffalo Bills WR room will continue to be a conundrum.

This receiving room felt like it had 30 different names at one point during the season. While the WR-by-committee approach can work for contenders in the NFL like the Chiefs and Bills, this team failed to produce a WR inside the top-30 at the position, marking the first time over the last eight years a top-5 fantasy QB failed to accomplish that. The extension of Khalil Shakir is good for the NFL but he’s never really moved from FLEX territory when you look at his week-to-week output. Keon Coleman has the size to be a menace in 1-on-1 situations and YAC opportunities in Year 2. That said, it’s a little concerning for Coleman’s dynasty value that the team decided to invest $36 million over three years in former Charger, Josh Palmer. On paper, the 3WR set should be Palmer and Coleman on the outside with Shakir in the slot. Speaking of slot WRs… despite fading from the limelight for most of the season, we forget Curtis Samuel signed a 3-year free agent deal in the 2024 off-season. He is under contract for two more years but it is effectively just one more. We know Joe Brady and the Bills love to use a WR rotation, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see the team draft another WR in April. Overall, good luck figuring this one out despite the fact their QB was NFL MVP!

40. Don’t take the bait with Dyami Brown.

I’ll be short here but despite the $10 million being paraded, this is just fluff. His highest fantasy finish through four years was WR100(!) so assuming he’s anything more than a best ball guy is wishful thinking. Brown finally made some noise at the end of the year during Washington’s playoff run as an explosive playmaker. It took him four years to accrue fewer than 800 total yards but the timing was spot on when you consider who he balled out against:

41. Brian Thomas Jr. is gonna eat.

The removal of Christian Kirk and Evan Engram (and their dinky <10 yard targets) in Jacksonville should lead you to only one conclusion: BTJ is that dude. He was incredible as a rookie, ranking 3rd in the NFL in receiving yards and posting the best zone YPRR average of any rookie WR since Odell Beckham Jr. Consider him a near untouchable in dynasty as a top-5 WR.

He also led all WRs in slot YPRR (3.25) last year, a spot Liam Coen brought up early in his press conference that he was giddy about.

42. The Ravens still view Zay Flowers as their alpha WR1.

With the signing of DeAndre Hopkins, he joins a long list of moldy oldies the Ravens have signed at the end of their careers: Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith Sr., Dez Bryant, OBJ. It’s been a slow and steady decline for Nuk over the last few years going from Cardinals target monster to a boom-bust threat in Tennessee and finally an afterthought for the Chiefs. By the Super Bowl, he ended up being fourth on the depth chart behind Juju… gasp! He is a living fantasy legend but entering his age 33 season, he is simply a big name chasing a ring at this point. D Hop should be a solid possession receiver for the Ravens, but for fantasy, it’s hard to get excited about a WR competing for targets. Instead, I’m doubling down on Zay Flowers as the clear lead target in this offense. Mark Andrews is in the final year of his contract and while Flowers can be erratic week-to-week, his 27% target share (through Week 17) and 30% 1st read target share points to the fact this team views him as their main guy. We have Flowers as a low-end WR2 in dynasty startup rankings and can see the path for a WR1 season if things hit right.

43. Does any team hate Darius Slayton more than his own team?

Ever since Slayton entered the league and started earning some snaps for the G Men, it seemed like they just didn’t really want to give him a real role, yet when his number is called, he produces. The Giants threw $36 million at Slayton despite his lackluster production over the years just one year after they let Saquon walk for a similar price…sure! For fantasy, Slayton is more of a waiver wire type guy in the event that Malik Nabers misses time or a late round dart in dynasty best ball leagues. In two games without Nabers last year, Slayton led the team with a 29.3% target share compared to just 10% in games with the talented rookie.

44. Expect the remaining veteran WRs to wait out the summer.

If your name is Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, or Stefon Diggs, there is very little incentive to sign with a team right now. Not only has the market dried up but the surge of rookie WRs will likely be the main focus for teams heading into April. At this point in their careers, skipping a lot of the summer workouts seems ideal as they coast in the final chapters of their careers. Injuries will occur, teams will get desperate, and you can expect the flip phones of these geriatric WRs to get a call. Do not try and play the guessing game or time it. Let it happen and if the landing spot illicits excitement for someone in your league, let it rip with a trade offer selling high on the “new connection”.

Tight Ends

45. The tight-end position is being devalued… in the place it counts most.

As I shared in 10 NFL Trends: Reacting to Pendulum Swings for 2025 & Beyond, NFL TEs accounted for 24% of the receptions and the highest overall total in league history. This sounds great, right? Despite the increase in volume, we also saw the fewest fantasy points per reception for TEs since 2011 and we’ve steadily seen TEs league-wide account for a lower percentage of their team’s red zone targets and red zone TDs than five years ago.

We used to be able to put TEs in simple categories and one of those was “TD-or-bust”. The last few years show us that compartmentalizing TEs and placing them in this bucket might be a fool’s errand. Teams are running more inside the red zone, especially inside the five. Few guys have a true “red zone” dominator role like Mark Andrews. Even Travis Kelce felt the pain of it this year. Despite leading all TEs in red zone targets (25), he converted just three of those into TDs, the lowest total of his career!

At the end of the day, I want TEs with 20+ percent of the targets on offenses that consistently move the ball inside the red zone. These percentages might be moving into a range where they rebound league-wide especially in the TD department. It just makes the elite TEs that much more valuable and in dynasty, I just don’t want to chase fringe options even in TE-premium leagues.

46. The Evan Engram PPR hype train needs to slow down.

The 30-year old vet signs a 2-year deal in Denver with his fantasy value primarily tied to his role in PPR leagues. The media’s obsession with Sean Payton’s “Joker” role seems a bit short-sighted: Broncos TEs saw just 13% of the targets (31st in the NFL) with Lucas Krull “leading” the way with 19 receptions.  We’d caution thinking that this new Bo Nix/Engram connection is going to re-establish his otherworldly 2023 campaign where he caught 114 balls. While  62% of Nix’s targets were under 10 yards, the offense also funneled an absurd amount of RB targets that skewed that total. If someone wants to overpay for Engram and assume he is the focal point of this offense, let them pay up. He is still well within the Dynasty Lifecycle of a TE but the type of targets he receives have never quite been high value. After securing six TDs as a rookie, here are his TD totals over the last seven seasons: 3, 3, 1, 3, 4, 4, and 1. That is a TD every 33 targets.

47. Dalton Kincaid is not a top tier dynasty asset.

You probably already felt that.

On Tuesday’s Fantasy Footballers Podcast, the guys shared “Where It Went Wrong?” with Kincaid. Going into the season, we thought could he challenge for being the No. 1 target in the offense or at least No. 2. With just ONE weekly finish inside the top-12, it was rough.

His route tree was confusing with more screens than what is normal for TEs. Only Tyler Conklin ran a higher % of “Go” routes among TEs in the NFL. The problem is Kincaid contributed ZERO receiving yards on these routes. His targets were also less valuable with just one reception inside the 10-yard line and zero targets inside the 5.  The Bills have trended towards running the ball more & more inside the red zone over the last three years (43.3% RZ rush rate < 52.1% < 54.6%) to give you a sense of where they were before and after drafting Kincaid 25th overall in 2023.

The takeaway for me is that “hybrid TEs” can have issues for fantasy. The Kyle Pitts/Mike Gesicki-types are notreally slot WRs, not really TEs. They end up being a blend and not particularly ELITE at either position. Kincaid likely remain in a muddled receiving corp without a red zone role… we call that TE15 territory which is a death sentence in dynasty.

Dalton Kincaid #86 of the Buffalo Bills carries the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the first half of the game at Hard Rock Stadium on January 07, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida.

Megan Briggs/Getty Images

48. Add Brenton Strange to the list.

It isn’t the sexiest name but Strange might be just be in the right place at the right time. With Engram gone, the former 2nd round pick out of Penn State joins a pretty awesome set of Penn State TEs who are currently starters in the NFL with Tyler Warren the next to add his name.

Strange was a nice fill-in when Engram was out, including an 11 reception game in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. The former 2nd round pick is below average as a blocker but should be rostered everywhere in the event that this new regime heads into the 2025 season with him as the guy. Jacksonville invested very little in the TE position in free agency, signing Hunter Long to a 2-year deal, $5 million deal and Johnny Mundt to a 2-year, $5.5 million deal. In TEP leagues, you could do worse.

49. Mike Gesicki got paid but he’s nothing more than a back-end TE1 at best.

“Sticky” had his moments in the Cincy offense as a necessary PPR option, but his splits were heavily tied to games with Tee Higgins on the sidelines. The 29-year-old is a hybrid slot WR/TE that is a liability in the run game, but the Bengals clearly value his role as the ‘WR3’ given that they signed him to a pretty legit three-year deal to bring him back. For fantasy, we view him more as a streamer as long as Chase and Tee are healthy, but if either of those guys miss time, we know Gesicki will have plenty of value as a TE1 starter. In five games last year without Tee, Sticky averaged 7.2 targets per game in this extremely pass-heavy offense.

50.  The Baltimore TE monopoly is coming to a close.

While there was speculation that Mark Andrews could be either a cap casualty or traded, the Ravens picked up his $4 million roster bonus for the 2025 NFL season. However, he enters the final year of his contract and so does Isaiah Likely. Everyone’s favorite “TE backup” is an expiring asset in the Baltimore system although it would not be shocking if he received a healthy second contract to go elsewhere. For 2025, if you are a contender both are probably holds. Andrews led all TEs in receiving TDs (11) as no other TE had more than 8. It resulted in some of his efficiency stats being boosted as he tallied the highest Passer Rating (140.9) when targeted of any TE over the last 7 years. His stat line (55/673/11) is somewhat comedic but in a world where TEs are less and less involved inside the red zone, Andrews is still a stronghold at the position.  It is worth mentioning that over the last decade, every single TE with 10+ TDs &  less than 900 receiving yards regressed in TD department the following season.

51. In a TE-Premium league, don’t sleep on Juwan.

Juwan Johnson posted the best numbers of his career in 2024, catching 50 of 65 targets for 548 yards and three touchdowns. At 6’4”, Johnson provides a big target for his QB over the middle of the field. For fantasy, Johnson will have some usable weeks as a streamer depending on the matchup, but this is not the type of guy you build your offensive game plan around. That said, the fact that the Saints, who are a bit strapped for cash, re-signed him to a pretty lucrative three-year deal has us intrigued with Johnson as a late round sleeper for redraft leagues. In dynasty, he’s a solid TE2/3 for your squad.

52. Cole Kmet is a quietly in a good spot to produce.

Call this a sneaky, sneaky addition in dynasty. We might be tin-foil hatting here connecting dots but the addition of Ben Johnson to Chicago brings new possibilities for us. Only 26.0 years old, Kmet is under contract for three more years and it seems like the offense just forget him last year. Before their Week 7 bye, he had a number of difference-making fantasy finishes and an 18% target share; however, from that point on, he saw just 8% of the targets. If everyone is expecting a Caleb Williams 2nd year leap, why not invest in one of the cheapest ways possible with Kmet? Expect a major improvement in the play-action passing game with Kmet being the type of red zone target emulating Sam LaPorta.

53. The Commanders aren’t convinced Ben Sinnott is ready.

Zach Ertz just won’t go away! At age 34, Ertz was a vital part of the Commanders passing attack down the stretch with Jayden Daniels. He finished as the TE8 on the back of his most receiving TDs (7) since 2018. He’s back in Washington as Jayden Daniels‘ chain-moving safety blanket. 2nd round pick Ben Sinnott was rarely heard from as a rookie despite Jayden Daniels massive breakout. Zach Ertz was the dependable underneath option all year long, and it’s obviously not ideal that the team brought back the old vet on a one-year deal. However, because of that Ertz one-year rental, Sinnott is essentially free in start up drafts and in the trade market. If you believed in the talent from last year’s draft process, now is not the time to shy away in fear! Some TEs (not named Brock Bowers) take a while to develop.

54. Trey McBride is about to get paid!

After 111 receptions, it is evident McBride is just built different. The headline was the lack of touchdowns but we understand those are volatile year-to-year in the NFL. We shared on Thursday’s Liar Liar segment that McBride recorded the MOST receptions EVER for any TE over their final 8 games played in a season.

Expect a massive contract extension this off-season cementing his status as a top-2 TE in dynasty behind only Brock Bowers. Trading for McBride sounds tough but going hard in the paint for someone of his caliber makes sense. How great does it feel to lock in a positional advantage for the next 5-7 years?

55. Brock Bowers is him.

You probably already know this but after scouting this year’s rookie TE prospects and reviewing Bowers as a prospect to compare… it’s clear there is no one like him. The free agent class and the aging out of the old guard (Kelce & Andrews) makes him shine even brighter when you consider what he did as a rookie. All 3 Ballers have him as a top-10 startup pick in our dynasty rankings and if you wanted to go as high as 6th off the board, I get it.

The offense was dreadful last year inside the red zone and the more I’m piecing together dynasty strategy, paying up for Bowers in exchanged for 2 1st round picks + something else is worth it.

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/dynasty/55-free-agency-implications-for-dynasty-managers/

#fantasyfootball #Sports #Betting #sportsbetting #sportsbettingadvice #freepick #freepicks #sportsbettingtips #handicapping #predictions #sportspredictions #NFL #esports #espn #NBA #NHL #sportsprediction #ncaa #mlb #WNBA #prediction #nhl #nhlplayoffs #nhlpicks #nbapicks #NBAPlayoffs #NFLPlayoffs #espnsports #bettingsports #bettingtips #bettingonline #bettingexpert #basketball #football #soccer #hockey #sportspicks #ncaabasketball #foxsports #cbssports #soccerpredictions #sportingbet