2026 Academy Awards Odds: Who’s Winning an Oscar?

Best Picture Odds and Pick

The early favorite in the Oscars odds for Best Picture is Marty Supreme (+220), starring Timothée Chalamet, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Tyler, the Creator! It’s helmed by Josh Safdie, who wrote Uncut Gems in 2019 with his brother, Benny. It’s also the first role for Paltrow, who won Best Actress in 1999 for Shakespeare in Love, since Avengers: Endgame. The early report is that it’s a steamy movie, which bodes well for Marty Supreme after Anora steamrolled the Oscars in 2025! Marty Supreme is scheduled for release on Christmas Day, 2025.

Gwyneth Paltrow told the “Marty Supreme” intimacy coordinator to “step a little bit back” while filming sex scenes with Timothée Chalamet.

“We have a lot of sex in this movie. There’s a lot. There’s now something called an intimacy coordinator, which I did not know existed. I… pic.twitter.com/kd2poPzuCZ

— Variety (@Variety) March 18, 2025

There are more candidates on the list, such as Long Day’s Journey into Night (+350), which is a film adaptation of a play by Eugene O’Neill from 1956. It stars four-time Oscar nominee Ed Harris and two-time winner Jessica Lange, and debuted at the Dublin International Film Festival on February 27. With Lange and Harris leading the way, this has “Oscar nomination” written all over it!

Mickey 17 (+350) was released on March 7, and stars Robert Pattinson, four-time Oscar nominee Mark Ruffalo, 2000 Oscar nominee Toni Colette, and Steven Yeun. But it’s also written and directed by Bong Joon Ho, who won all the awards for 2019’s Parasite, the first non-English film to win Best Picture.

Highest 2 Lowest (+350) stars Denzel Washington, who has been nominated for nine Academy Awards, and has won two. Washington also reunites with Spike Lee, who won for Best Adapted Screenplay for BlacKkKlansman in 2019, but lost out for Best Director the same year. It’ll be the fifth movie Washington and Lee have done together.

Wicked for Good (+350) is the final of the top favorites we’ll check out, and it’s the sequel from 2024’s Wicked, which was nominated for ten Academy Awards, but won just two, and none for acting. I’m expecting another slew of nominations for the sequel!

BEST PICTURE BETTING PICK

There are other options worth considering, such as Hamnet (+750), and Avatar: Fire and Ash (+800), the third installment in the Avatar franchise. The first two have been nominated for Best Picture. There is also Frankenstein (+800) and The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde (+1000). This list will change multiple times before film awards season starts.

But I’m predicting Marty Supreme at +220 in the early Oscars odds, and I know it’s chalk, but it has everything the Academy Awards loves to reward. Paltrow won an Oscar, and Chalamet lobbied quite hard in the Best Actor category in his acceptance speech at the SAG Awards. The voters are younger and more diverse than ever, so it appears that a risqué film like Marty Supreme has a good chance to win! Let’s take the favorite, for now.

Best Actor Odds and Pick

Chalamet (+180) leads the way in the Best Actor odds, and he made a late charge this year for playing Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, but came up just short behind Adrien Brody for The Brutalist.

“I’m really in pursuit of greatness.I know people don’t talk like that but I want to be one of the greats.” – Timothée Chalamet accepting his SAG Award pic.twitter.com/hAGx2edovn

— Shannon Burns (@itsshannonburns) February 24, 2025

But he’ll have some stiff competition. Robert Pattinson (+240) is in the hunt for his first Oscar nomination in Mickey 17, and the same goes for Oscar Isaac (+300) in Frankenstein. Dwayne Johnson (+500) is up for his role in The Smashing Machine, a biopic about former MMA fighter Mark Kerr, and helmed by Benny Safdie. It’s jarring to see Johnson’s name among potential Oscar nominees (especially with better odds than the next two actors I’ll discuss), but we’ll see if he can pull it off!

Washington (+375) will get a look from the Academy, then you have Daniel Day-Lewis (+600), who has won three Oscars for Best Actor out of six nominations! Day-Lewis returns to the screen for Anemone, which is directed by his son, Ronan, and Daniel helped write the screenplay.

Austin Butler (+1000) was nominated in 2023 for the main role in Elvis, and he could be again for Caught Stealing, which comes out in August 2025. Finally, we have George Clooney (+1000) for Jay Kelly, which also stars Adam Sandler and Laura Dern. Clooney has been nominated eight times, and won for Best Supporting Actor for Syriana in 2006. He was also a producer for Argo, which won Best Picture in 2013.

BEST ACTOR BETTING PICK

Again, it’s early, but I’m going with the favorite and taking Timothée Chalamet at +180! After coming so close in 2024, Chalamet will be on the lobby trail early for this award. He was also nominated for Best Actor in 2018 for Call Me by Your Name, so Chalamet has been knocking at the door. He’ll burst through that door next year at the Academy Awards!

Best Actress Odds and Pick

Cynthia Erivo (+185) was nominated for Wicked, and she’s the favorite for Wicked for Good, so you can write her down in pen for a nomination now! This would be her third nomination, as Erivo was also put up for her role in Harriet, about historical figure Harriet Tubman, in 2019.

Cynthia Erivo earns her second Best Actress nomination at the #Oscars:

2020: Harriet
2025: Wicked pic.twitter.com/RX60Buucll

— Pop Crave (@PopCrave) January 23, 2025

2013 Best Actress winner Jennifer Lawrence (+225) is aiming for her fifth nomination for her work in Die, My Love, in which she is also a producer. Lange (+350) should be up for Long Day’s Journey into Night (+350), and this would be her third win, and seventh nomination.

It’s looking to be a busy year for Jessie Buckley, who could be nominated for Hamnet (+450) or The Bride (+800). I would lean more towards Hamnet, which is about the death of William Shakespeare’s son of the same name. It’s also directed by Chloé Zhao, who won Best Director and Best Picture for 2020’s Nomadland.

Anne Hathaway (+1000) won Best Supporting Actress for Les Misérables in 2013, and a nomination for Mother Mary would be her third Oscar nomination. Jodie Comer (+1000) could be in line for her first Academy Award nomination for the Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde.

Emma Stone (+1000) always has to be included in the Oscar conversation after two wins and five nominations. After winning in 2024 for Poor Things, Stone could be up for another one for Bugonia.

Dakota Johnson (+1200) is fresh off topping the Razzies odds, and winning Worst Actress for Madame Web. But she shouldn’t take that to heart. Halle Berry won the same award for Catwoman in 2004, but showed up with her Oscar from 2001’s Monster’s Ball to receive the award! Johnson could be nominated for Materialists.

Emily Blunt (+1200) wraps up the early Oscars odds for Best Actress for The Smashing Machine, and she was nominated for Oppenheimer in 2024.