2025 Rookie Profile: QB Shedeur Sanders (Fantasy Football)

Regardless of whether you consider yourself a true “watch the tape” grinder, sort through endless spreadsheets with a stats-only approach, confess that you’re a college football junkie or you admittedly look at this just for fun, there is no room to shame anyone who wants to begin evaluating the upcoming rookie class. Instead of choosing either-or, why not combine all of those?

We see often what we want to see and can easily make decisions for dynasty based on what we think should happen. While I’ve been writing for the Fantasy Footballers since 2016 and dabbled in some film work in past for other companies, I think my strength in looking at rookie QBs is asking a few simple questions: What am seeing? What am I not seeing? We ask big questions and reflect knowing there is a range of outcomes for every prospect.

For Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, if you were to ask NFL scouts where they see him slotting in for 2025, there seems to be a plethora of opinions. He shows up as the No. 1 QB on many consensus boards while trusted names like Dane Brugler (#25) and Daniel Jeremiah (#11) not only have him as their QB2 but outside their own top-10 big boards. Based on team needs, Sanders does look like a surefire early first round pick but for fantasy purposes, will that translate to this silly game we all play?

Editors Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2025 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2025.

College Production Profile

A 4-star recruit from Tyler, Texas in the 2021 class, Sanders’ story is intertwined with his famous father and coach Deion Sanders. How many athletes can say they started for four years in college with their father at two different schools?

Depending on who you talk to, Coach Prime is either the best thing that happened to college football or his presence exacerbated some of its flaws with NIL and non-stop media coverage. Regardless of your feelings on Coach Prime, his son went from HBCU star at Jackson State to transitioning to a Power-5 school with best buddy Travis Hunter and becoming a legit NFL prospect. In 2023, he was the Pac-12 Newcomer of the Year although the team won just four games.

His game was elevated to another level in 2024 as the Buffaloes went 9-4 finishing with an Alamo bowl loss to BYU. As a passer, Sanders ranked among the elites of all college football in 2024:

• 1st in completion percentage (74.2%)
• 2nd in the nation in total EPA added as a passer
• 2nd in adjusted accuracy percentage per PFF
• 2nd in TD passes
• 4th in passing yards

If we ended the profile there, you’d probably walk away asking what is the issue? Despite being a precision passer, Sanders 19.2% pressure-to-sack ratio is just the beginning of his downside. Here are the highest 1st round QBs since 2018:

26% of his pressures were deemed “QB-responsible” per PFF, an alarmingly high number when you stack it up against other 1st round QB prospects. In fact, the only 1st round QBs with a P2S% of 19+ % and 25% QB responsibility include Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, Kenny Pickett, and Sanders.

As we’ll discuss below in his film evaluation, sacks taken and other negative plays should be a huge part of our process. Very few prospects jump from the college level to the NFL and quit this bad habit. Josh Allen is one of the few shining examples of QBs who morphed into a sack avoidant king at the next level after struggling under pressure at Wyoming.

Measurables

Let’s discuss Sanders in the context of his physical attributes compared to the other top prospects using our Production Profiles in the Dynasty Pass.

The oldest of the top-4 prospects, Sanders’ 50 games of starting experience should be seen as a plus. Given the proper environment and coaching staff, he seems like he could step in immediately as a starter. Ignore the breakout age (21.6) as his Jackson State numbers will not register as posting a QBR of 50+.

It will be interesting to see where he measures in at the combine/Colorado’s Pro Day. I’ve seen Sanders listed as 6’1″-6’2″ with weight anywhere from 215 (quite generous) to all the way below 200.

What’s On Tape

What do we see on the actual football field from Sanders? While perusing the Jackson State film is tempting, we’re going to focus on the last two Colorado seasons with an emphasis on 2024.

My method for watching film is simple: get out a pen and pad of paper. Watch each pass attempt taking note of the down and distance and simply write down what I see. For a QB, I focus on accuracy, aDOT (specifically intermediate area throws), footwork, locating 2nd reads, and how they stand in the pocket under pressure. For Sanders, I took eight of his highest-profile games including two from 2023 and his final game against BYU in the Alamo Bowl.

Games Viewed: BYU, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Utah, Arizona (2023), Stanford (2023)

1. His Throwing Motion is Smooth

The standout trait for Sanders and why he is being mocked as a 1st round pick is the fluidity of his throwing motion. It’s clean and efficient. While being a QB is so much more than just heaving the rock, Sanders’ mechanics as a thrower are almost flawless. From snap-to-snap, there isn’t a ton of variability in his motion while other QBs (like Miami’s Cam Ward) prefer to go to the Mahomes/Stafford route of changing arm angles all the time. In clean pockets, Sanders takes three step drops and releases with consistent, catchable balls. While that might not sound like an overpowering trait, you’d be surprised how tough it is watching college film and just noticing how difficult it is play-to-play for a majority of NCAA athletes to deliver passes that “look like they’re supposed to”.

In the game versus Kansas State, he completed a season-high 85 % of his passes looking confident completing at different levels of the field. Apart from some questionable negative plays (as we’ll discuss below), this game showed a varied approach with a few absolute ropes down the sidelines.

 

2. Managing the Pocket is a Problem

Escapability is an ability and trump card for certain QBs. I’ve referenced this before with prospects like Caleb Williams. In college, you can keep drives alive dancing around and manipulating the pocket. In the NFL, it is a recipe for 3-and-outs as evidenced by the fact Chicago ranked 31st in EPA on 3rd down last year. While we all approach QBing as if we were playing Madden on our Xbox trying to go-for it on every single play, negative plays will not lead to a long NFL career.

Re-watch the Stanford game and ask yourself the question, “how the heck did Colorado lose that game after being up 29-0 at half-time?” There are a comedy of errors (and long TDs by Stanford WR Elic Ayonmanor) but we can also point to some egregious 3rd and 4th down sacks taken by Sanders. There has been a lot of discourse in recent years about this subject but the main headline: sacks are a Quarterback Stat. Offensive line play is obviously a big part of the equation but sack avoidance is part of creating positive plays for your offense and not turnover or turnover on downs plays. I highly recommend this article from Kevin Cole on sack avoidance with prospects and Eric Eager’s on who controls pressure rates.

At first, I took the comment as a fun aside from our own Mike Wright, “Does Sanders ever step into the pocket?” After watching the film of these eight games, it seems like he often drifts into more pressure rather than stepping up into the pocket to “stand tall”. The backwards running on drop backs is a major red flag inviting more pressure than the play is beckoning. The BYU game was a disaster especially on 3rd down including two momentum shifting plays in the 2nd quarter shown below where he lost a combined 40 yards. While he did connect later with Hunter on a bomb TD, Hunter did most of the work and bailed out Sanders on the play.

 

Against Nebraska, he threw a Pick-6 early when the offense was backed up. The rest of the game forced Colorado to go into catch-up mode heading into half time down 28-0. Things weren’t much better in the second half despite the fact Nebraska routinely rushed just four. The huge losses ruined a number of third downs that makes you question if he thinks he’s more elusive than he actually is.

3. Distributes the Offense

The best way I can describe Shedeur is that he functioned best as a “point guard” executing the offense and distributing the ball. His “football IQ” is often mentioned as one of his best traits. The quick passing especially on timing routes can work with consistent, catchable targets for his WRs. He can throw to spots more than to just to open receivers which is a trait few college QBs can master as simple one-read plans are installed by coordinators.

I’ve focused on the 11-19 yard area of the field for a few years in my scouting process. The intermediate area is where you get chunk gains and extending drives converting 1st downs. His 82% completion between the numbers (PFF) showcases what is evident on film. Against Arizona, there were a number of throws across the middle of the field that caught my attention. He anticipated throwing lanes and receivers across the middle with enough zip on the ball to fit into tight windows especially on slants. In the Texas Tech game, Colorado got in a 13-point hole and while Sanders continued to take sacks and lose yards at a frightening rate, he brought his team back on YAC plays more-so than his traditional route. It wasn’t his prettiest game but the ability to shift

What’s Not on Tape

Here are a couple of takeaways from what didn’t show up:

1. Games Without Warts

As I shared above, apart from the accuracy as a passer perhaps the most consistent theme of Sanders tape is head-shaking negative plays. He took at least one sack in every single game with the yardage lost piling up in large quantities.

Shedeur taking 23 yard sacks proves he is ready to be a New York Giant.

— AJ Hoffman (@AJIsTheReal) December 29, 2024

Running backwards to avoid sacks was a common theme but one of my takeaways was asking the question: was there a complete game? In other words, was there a game where I walked away thinking this guy is completely in control and an absolute game-changer. Going back through years of writing Rookie Profiles, it was easy to identify the stud early 1st round QBs who put out statement games:

• C.J. Stroud– “The Georgia game was by far the toughest test for Stroud in his entire college career. It was easily his most complete game not only when looking at the stat sheet but his footwork went to another level…  he manipulated the pocket, showcased his strengths as a thrower on the run, and escaped pressure better than I’d seen in the rest of his tape.“
• Jayden Daniels– “Daniels went bonkers in the Florida game with an eye-popping 234 rushing yards but some of the angles from these linebackers made it feel like it was 534 rushing yards.”
• Joe Burrow– “Honestly, it seemed like every play Burrow was able to not only read the defense but the deliver the ball where it needed to be. It’s also apparent that some of his rushes were absolute back-breakers in huge moments… in the National Championship against Clemson, there were legitimate runs that made me notice his vision in the open field.”
• Justin Herbert– “In that Stanford game, he threw some absolute daggers, especially in the 4th quarter. Despite losing in OT, he put Oregon in a position to win being up ten points with under four minutes left in the game. This was arguably his most impressive performance on film in my opinion.“

We can certainly find counting stats within his game logs to justify Sanders. Perhaps you view 438 yards & 5 TDs versus Oklahoma State as a statement game. That Cowboys team went 0-9 in conference and somehow Sanders still took 6(!) sacks. I walked away from his film finding more volatility in his decision-making and drop backs than I would’ve initially thought. That is a recipe in the NFL for a short-lived career if you are consistently churning out negative plays.

2. A Consistent Running Game

I’m not so much highlighting Sanders’ rushing ability as much as mentioning the type of offense he ran at Colorado under Pat Shurmur. This team’s leading rusher (Isaiah Augustave) had 384 yards! Woof. They ranked 78th in EPA per rush attempt coupled with the fact Colorado’s 60.6% pass rate ranked 3rd among 134 teams in 2024. Colorado joined Hawaii as one of only two teams with a 58+ % pass rate each of the last two seasons.

If we are trying to take the puzzle pieces we have in front of us from college, keep in mind that he operated within a shotgun offense that rare used the run as a threatening part of their game plan. Imagine being an opposing defense thinking you can sit in Cover-3 or Cover-4 all day while rushing four passers. Part of Sanders’ sack problems can also be attributed to the system which asked him to be everything to this offense as a distributor and even asked him to create more as a runner than his skillset dictated. He can work off-script but when you have a running game, the threat of something (anything else!) will only help elevate him. I have hope that he can function in a quick-paced offense that takes advantage of his decision-making while mixing in the play-action passing game.

Fantasy Outlook

When you mix in a relatively weak draft class with Sanders’ production and precision passing, there will be an NFL team that envisions him as their heir apparent at QB. On the Dynasty Podcast, we discussed his floor as a passer but raised concerns of his fantasy ceiling due to the lack of rushing. In our first rookie mock draft in the Dynasty Pass, Sanders went at the 2.05 in a 1QB league. In SuperFlex, he likely slides in as a mid 1st rounder. Depending on your strategy and team needs, Sanders is not a must-target if you are looking for fantasy upside at the QB position and would prefer selecting the next best RB/WR on your board.

As of this publishing, his odds (+450) are behind Cam Ward’s (-140) on DraftKings Sportsbook to go No. 1 overall but it ultimately comes down to different teams, their evaluations, and what type of archetype they want in a QB. The most common landing spots according MockDraftDatabase.com are the Giants (#3) and Raiders (#6). Stepping into the NFL with a #1 WR in Malik Nabers or in Las Vegas with new HC Pete Carroll and OC Chip Kelly forming an intriguing combination. However, as I noted above, he needs an adequate and respectable running game to pair with him so he doesn’t have to try and be superman every play. Neither of those teams are currently in a position to work in tandem with him ranking 30th and 31st in play success rate a year ago.