2025 NFL Combine: A Summary of Research & What Matters

Sometimes you know when to tap out.

I’ve done a ton of research over the years working for TFFB including writing my 1,000th article last August (it’s 65,000+ words so taking the TLDR approach is ok) and yet, the combine is one of those areas I mostly skipped over annually.

Part of my lack of knowledge (or perhaps ineptitude) is quantifying what matters at the combine watching someone 15 years my younger running around in shorts. Maybe you are like me and every year you come back to this annual event and ask yourself: so wait, what should I pay attention to?

The 2025 combine player schedule is packed out including a general medical exam, team interviews, media interviews, measurements, on-field workouts, and finishes with bench press and broadcast interviews on the final day. I have friends who are directly involved within Exos Training (a premiere pre-draft training program that helps NFL prospects improve their performance at the combine) who share with me a bevy of behind-the-scenes events and happenings that make the combine tough to gauge when you add in all of the media attention.

While there are a number of websites devoted to athletic testing and RAS scores, we have a method within our Production Profiles on our website that automatically adds every player’s testing scores in categories such as

• explosiveness (vertical & broad jump)
• speed (weight-adjusted 40-time)
• quickness (3-cone & 20-yard shuttle)

Comparing combine metrics to their peers does give us a sense of their relative athletic skills in these drills; however, it does not necessarily convey what translates to a successful NFL career.

We can use anecdotal evidence of players like John Ross— a speed merchant who ran a blazing 4.22 40-time at the 2017 combine. The Bengals were so enamored with his skills that they took him 9th overall. You know the end of that story as Ross became a poster child for combine hype turning into career disaster.  However, that simple one-to-one deduction obviously does not tell the entire story of his career dealing with injuries, team fit, and overall WR skills that failed to consistently translate to the NFL.

Beyond bringing up tales of caution and conjecture, I will be drawing from a number of research-based studies done by gentlemen much smarter than myself about the NFL combine. My goal is simple: condense this in one place.

Editor’s Note: For updated production profiles on all of the 2025 Prospects, make sure you check out the Ultimate Draft Kit+ with the 2025 Dynasty Pass being updated daily.

Research-Based Combine Studies

All four of the studies I’ve chosen (there are many more out there) are ones that I’ve referenced over the years in my own research. I wanted compile their findings in one place as a sort of collection and summary of combine findings and champion the work they’ve done.

Below, I’ve listed the analyst, links to their work, their website, the methodology of their studies and the years of combine data they focused on:

For brevity sake, I will be highlighting specific combine drills and quoting the key findings from their studies for the four offensive skill positions: QB, RB, WR, TE. I highly encourage you to read through each of their studies for full context and a look at the offensive line as well as defensive positions.

The combine drills they reference in their studies include:

• 40-yard dash
• 10-yard split
• Vertical jump
• Broad jump
• Three-cone drill
• 20-yard shuttle
• Bench press (225 pounds)

I will summarize the finding while also giving context for additional drills and measurements that are position-specific.

Quarterbacks: Keep it Simple

For the most important position in professional sports, it seems the combine is a mixed bag of what matters and what doesn’t matter. The team interviews are often lauded as the most important part of the process getting a feel for leadership qualities and team culture fits.

Beyond the drills, QBs participate in throwing to receivers running a number of different routes: Slant, Curl, End Zone Fade, Sail, Post/Corner, and a Go Route. All of which have zero defenders on the field. “Throwing against air” in shorts whether at the Combine or Pro Days ultimately should not sway billion dollar organizations. Right?

Narrator: And yet Zachary Kapono Wilson would complete just one more play-action pass of 45+ air yards for the rest of his career.

Wk4 vs TEN-2021 pic.twitter.com/4nQ70kKYDP

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) February 27, 2025

What Does the Research Say?

Lotter: “The forty, shuttle, and vertical leap are all statistically significant…”

Sannes: “Overall, none of these workouts has a super tight relationship with production at the NFL level. This makes sense, given how many other factors come into play at the position… weight-adjusted 40-time for quarterbacks had a higher R-squared value with the first four years of production than at wide receiver, interior offensive line, and interior defensive line. It’s not nothing, and it was the workout that stood out most for quarterbacks.”

Seth: “…broad jump is the combine measurement to watch while age, three cone, and weight influence a quarterback’s production as well.”

Summary

While there is ancillary discussion about measurements like hand size, perhaps simple size/speed metrics will suffice. As Lotter adds: “Athletic QB’s might be better able to make up for their rookie mistakes and are better suited to be successful on day one.” Players like Shedeur Sanders have decided to skip combine drills letting his body work (1,803 career pass attempts) do the most talking. I recently wrote up Sanders’ Rookie Profile on our site if you want a deeper dive on him.

Running Backs: Explosive & Quick

The 2025 RB class seems to be lightyears ahead of last year’s lackluster crew. As I detailed in the 2024 Rookie RB Class Review, we saw the fewest total touches & yards from scrimmage from rookie RBs over the last decade. It was the first year since 2011 that two rookie RBs did NOT finished inside the top-24 at the position.

Currently, we have five RBs being mocked as top-65 picks according NFLMockDraftDatabase.com. While workout warriors like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry dominated the fantasy landscape in 2024, guys like Kyren Williams (4.65 40-time) and Bucky Irving (4.55) seemingly fell in their respective years due to slower than advertised times at the combine.

What Does the Research Say?

Lotter: “heavier, shorter, faster running backs were found to be more successful on average, but NFL scouts tended to ignore height and weight and instead focused on 40-yard dash time and broad jump“

Sannes: “The two that stood out most were the 40-yard dash and broad jump, both adjusted for weight.”

Cole: “Generally, athletic testing has a much bigger effect on draft position than NFL value in the form of Plus/Minus… Running back prospect three-cone times have almost equal correlations with draft position and actual value, making it the most important drill for teams to pay attention to for a relative advantage on the field.“

Seth: “…age and weight are very important factors while the actual combine events themselves hold less predictive power. Forty-yard dash is the one of note here as that carries the least weight.“

Summary

There are some mixed results here regarding the 40-yard dash. In terms of draft positioning, a faster 40-time will certainly move prospects up boards but the correlation with NFL production seems to be less weighty.

Three-cone is one that seems to have some signal as Cole pointed out. Last year’s RB leader in 3-cone drill time: NYG 5th round pick Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Wide Receivers: Don’t Be Fooled

The wide receiver position might get the most attention of any during combine week. NWe see top-end 40 times that flash on the screen as NFL teams are lured by sirens of catch phrases like “game-breaking speed” and “blazing fast”. Per NextGen Stats, Xavier Worthy hit 24.41 MPH during his record-breaking 4.21 40-time showcasing unreal straight line speed. As a purely athletic feat, it was awesome to watch last year.

The simulcam you’ve been waiting for.

Xavier Worthy tops John Ross’ 40-yard dash record with a 4.21

: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork
: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/ump5lW7aB6

— NFL (@NFL) March 2, 2024

What Does the Research Say?

Lotter: “None of the coefficients came out as significant for WR’s. In fact, WR’s are the only position in which the model can’t significantly predict success… WR’s can expect the biggest jump in the draft by improving their bench.”

Sannes: “there is no one workout metric that will tell the tale at receiver. Thus, all combine data should be taken with a grain of salt.”

Cole: “You will see a handful of receiver rise and fall significantly on draft boards over the next few weeks as measurements and drill times come in, but you don’t want to overreact… For every top athlete at wide receiver who looks like he belongs in the NFL, there are at least two who never work out.”

Seth: “… age again shows up as an important factor. Vertical jump ends up as the most important combine event for receivers and forty time is something that doesn’t hold as much weight as most might expect.” 

Summary

Woof. There seems to be a consensus here about the WR position: it doesn’t matter.  In fact, the constant in all four studies is the amount of noise it creates. Noise offers a double-meaning of both a random, irrelevant clutter of data and “buzz” which can influence evaluators. In fact, history suggests it seems to over-inflate WR draft stock in the eyes of many NFL scouts and front office folks. It often can confirm priors (he’s fast!) or elevate players with shoddy college production profiles.

It is also worth mentioning some of the route-based drills and recent WRs who showed out:

• The gauntlet drill (as seen here from 2024’s combine) is meant to test a WR’s ability to catch passes while running across the field. It can measure both speed and control using chips worn by every player. Players who disappoint in the 40-yard dash can regain ground as Puka Nacua’s leading time from 2023’s Combine gave credence to the drill after he ran just a 4.57 in the 40.
• The “go route” drill is as simple as “run in a straight line while we throw you the ball deep”. It wasn’t surprising that Brian Thomas Jr. was clocked at 22.91 miles per hour (MPH) during this drill, the fastest time anyone ran that route at the 2024 Combine. Per ESPN’s Jordan Reid, 41% of his production in his final year at LSU were on  “go” routes.

Tight Ends: Pay Attention

The tight end position might be the one offensive position that should sway your outlook the most from the combine.

What Does the Research Say?

Lotter: “It seems NFL teams have figured out the equation for tight end success – 40-yard dash to go out for passes, and also bench-press to block. Kudos.”

Sannes: “… R-squared value for the weight-adjusted 40-yard dash is the highest of any position across the six workouts…If you’re looking for benchmarks at the combine, for a tight end weighing 250 pounds, in order to rank in the 75th percentile, he’d need: Roughly a 4.65-second 40 and a broad jump at or above 10 feet…”

Cole: “Size, and to a lesser degree speed, are the driving attributes for NFL success at tight end… The reality for tight end is that much of the value in the receiving game is a crapshoot, and blocking value is more easily linked to size.”

Seth: “Forty time, broad jump, vertical jump, and three cone drill are all strongly positively correlated while weight is negatively correlated.”

Summary

The thought process seems simple: athletic tight-ends extend drives and are more likely to break off big gains and get downfield with chunk yardage plays. The Jack Doyles & Austin Hoopers of the world run 5-yard drags and fall down. In my research for identifying breakout TEs, I found that YAC-ability and generating missed tackles at the college level often translated to the NFL.

Check out George Kittle‘s 2017 combine for a good time.