The NBA MVP odds for the 2024-25 season have the usual suspects at the top of the list. Denver’s Nikola Jokić has won the award in three of the last four years. However, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has caught the “Joker” at NBA betting sites and is the favorite to win his first MVP!
I’ll provide my analysis of the NBA odds for MVP, largely focused on the top two favorites. Read until the end for my NBA MVP prediction and betting pick!
2024-25 NBA MVP Odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) | -600 |
| Nikola Jokić (DEN) | +400 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) | +50000 |
| Jayson Tatum (BOS) | +50000 |
It’s officially a two-horse race in these 2025 NBA MVP odds, according to NBA betting sites. Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-600) has surged out to a considerable lead! The Thunder star has an implied win probability of 85.7% to win his first MVP, which is up from 84.6% on February 27. “SGA” has Oklahoma City way out in the Western Conference, and they’re neck-and-neck with Cleveland in the race for the #1 overall seed. The Thunder are officially slight favorites over Boston in the NBA championship odds.
The only other realistic choice is Denver’s Nikola Jokić (+400), who carries a 20% implied win probability. Jokic has won three of the last four MVP awards and finished second to Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid in 2022-23.
Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo (+50000) and Boston’s Jayson Tatum (+50000) are the only other players listed at offshore sportsbooks. At this point, they don’t have a realistic chance.
It should also be said that many players are missing due to not being able to reach the 65-game requirement to be eligible for awards. That rules out Embiid and Luka Dončić of the Los Angeles Lakers, among others.
The NBA odds for MVP you see above come from Bovada, and the sportsbook offers more players. You can find this market by heading to Sports > Basketball > NBA Awards & League Leaders > Regular Season MVP.
The NBA MVP Favorite for 2024-25
Two players have risen to the top of the NBA MVP odds. One of them has accounted for three MVP wins, while the other finished second last season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-600)
.@WindhorstESPN believes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s impact is “undersold.”
“I see people talk about that there’s a race for the MVP, I just don’t think that there is. I think he’s in the lead by a lot.” 👀 pic.twitter.com/3Solecj6Dm
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) March 5, 2025
Gilgeous-Alexander is incredibly efficient, shooting 52.5% from the field, 37.1% from three-point land, and 90% from the foul line. He’s within reach of the mythical 50/40/90 shooting splits that only a handful of players have reached. Steve Nash did it four times, Larry Bird and Kevin Durant have done it twice, while Kyrie Irving, Stephen Curry, Mark Price, Dirk Nowitzki, Reggie Miller, and Malcolm Brogdon have all hit that mark once.
The Toronto native is also a great defensive player, and while he’s not a lockdown defender, Gilgeous-Alexander knows where to be in Oklahoma City’s scheme. Only Orlando is allowing fewer points than Oklahoma City, but the Magic play at a far slower pace than the Thunder.
Overall, there isn’t a lot to nitpick about Gilgeous-Alexander’s case for the NBA MVP. However, there is a three-time defending MVP in Denver that is doing his best to change that.
The Main Competition for the NBA MVP Award
Nikola Jokić, Denver (+400)
Nikola Jokic gave incredible praise to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander when asked about the 2024-25 NBA MVP race:
“This is my third or fourth year in a row, so, I can’t control it. I will say, I think I’m playing the best basketball of my life, so, if that’s enough, it’s enough. If… pic.twitter.com/tJb0kYNorP
— Courtside Buzz (@CourtsideBuzzX) March 11, 2025
Gilgeous-Alexander put up 40 points in a 127-103 mauling of Denver at home on March 9, but Jokic had 24 points, 13 rebounds, nine assists, and three blocks. The next night, “Joker” had 35 points, 18 boards, and eight assists in a 140-127 win in Oklahoma City, and Gilgeous-Alexander had 25 points and seven assists. After those games, many thought Jokic made up ground on Gilgeous-Alexander in the MVP race.
However, the NBA MVP odds didn’t reflect that. It’s tough on Jokic, who has won three of the last four MVPs, and is known as the best player in the world. He’s having the best season of his life, and is certainly deserving of the MVP. The Nuggets are also now up to third in the Western Conference, tied with Memphis by record.
NBA MVP Prediction and Pick for 2024-25
It’s going to be very fascinating to see how the voters evaluate two terrific seasons from these players. Both are extremely deserving of the MVP, and are putting up incredible numbers! Most importanty, both players are available for their teams. “SGA” has played 64 games this season, and “Joker” has played 60. I think Jokic’s odds are being undervalued right now. If you think Jokic can get enough votes, his price of +400 is definitely worth taking a chance on.
I do think the voters are going to lean towards Gilgeous-Alexander, and I feel team success has a lot to do with it. The Thunder have been, arguably, the best team in the NBA all season. If the Nuggets were closer to the Thunder (OKC leads Denver by 12 games), I think Jokic might win the award. I also do think that voter fatigue is a thing in the NBA. I watched Karl Malone and Charles Barkley win MVP awards that could have, arguably, gone to Michael Jordan, so there is precedent for it. You could also argue that the MVP that went to Embiid, Jokic should have won.
So, I’m predicting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win the award, but I’m avoiding his 2025 NBA MVP odds because at -600, there’s no value there.
More NBA Futures for 2024-25
https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/nba-mvp-odds-favorites-predictions/
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