2-Point Conversion: Todd Bowles Needs Another Bucs Defensive Masterpiece

Intro

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Todd Bowles Needs Another Bucs Defensive Masterpiece

Todd Bowles will be the first to tell you that’s not about stopping one player on offense – even a quarterback as talented as Washington’s Jayden Daniels.

He’ll say that his defense needs to focus on stopping the Commanders offense, which is orchestrated by offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.

But that’s not entirely true.

Daniels is a remarkable talent and should be the front-runner to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year after throwing 25 touchdown passes with just nine interceptions, while completing 69% of his passes. As the Bucs found out in their 37-20 season-opening win, Daniels’ scrambling ability is truly special. Daniels ran for 88 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries and finished his rookie season as Washington’s leading rusher with 891 yards and six scores.

That duel threat ability is what makes Daniels dangerous. But Bowles dialed up a game plan that turned out to be a defensive masterpiece last January in a resounding 32-9 Wild Card win over Philadelphia.

The Eagles had their own dual threat QB in Jalen Hurts, who along with Philly’s ground game, was neutralized by Bowles’ five-man defensive line scheme he threw out as a new wrinkle to stop the run.

Bowles will need another defensive wrinkle or two to slow down Daniels, who has improved by leaps and bounds from when he completed 17-of-24 passes for 184 yards against Tampa Bay’s defense back in Week 1. All season the weakness has been the middle of the Bucs defense where the team’s inside linebackers and safeties have been picked on due to lackluster pass coverage.

As a result, expect veteran tight end Zach Ertz, who is second on the team with 66 catches for 654 yards and seven touchdowns, to get plenty of action on Sunday night. And expect Daniels to try to scramble up the middle for big yardage if the pocket collapses.

It’s Tuesday as I write this and the Bucs haven’t practiced yet, so I’m not giving away any potential game plan information – nor do I have any insight into what Bowles is cooking up. But let me put on my South Pasco Predators Pop Warner defensive coordinator hat for a minute and think of a defensive scheme I’d consider running if I’m Bowles.

Bowles blitzed Daniels an awful lot back in Week 1 and that’s certainly his tendency as a play-caller. One of the looks I would draw up would be a 5-2-4 scheme with five-man defensive front consisting of outside linebackers Yaya Diaby and Anthony Nelson flanking defensive tackles Calijah Kancey, Vita Vea and Logan Hall.

At the linebacker level I’d feature Lavonte David and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, who is the best outside linebacker in coverage and the best and fastest OLB in space. Tryon-Shoyinka is faster than J.J. Russell or K.J. Britt and could help spy Daniels to prevent scrambles – or blitz Daniels from the middle. A five-man defensive front would likely cause Washington to leave in a running back or tight end in to help block. Otherwise it’s five one-on-ones for the Commanders offensive line – advantage Tampa Bay.

The secondary could feature Zyon McCollum matched up against Terry McLaurin wherever he goes, along with Josh Hayes – if Jamel Dean can’t go – with Tykee Smith in the box at strong safety and Antoine Winfield Jr. at free safety or Mike Edwards if Winfield can’t play. We’ll see what happens, but I’m really curious to see what Bowles has cooked up for Daniels and Co.

STATEMENT 2: Mike Evans Just Became A First-Ballot Hall of Famer

Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans has long been overlooked as one of the game’s best wide receivers. It really wasn’t until Tom Brady came to Tampa Bay and helped the Bucs win Super Bowl LV that Evans really started to get a lot of national attention. When Evans became the only wide receiver in NFL history to start his career with 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons it became clear to all that Evans is destined to be a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Now that he’s inside the Top 25 at No. 24 in terms of all-time NFL receiving yardage with 12,684 yards, Evans is a lock to not only be a Hall of Famer, but also a first ballot Hall of Famer. With one more 1,000-yard season, Evans will move up to No. 17 on the all-time list, and if he can get two more 1,000-yard seasons he’ll be in the Top 10 at No. 9, passing Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison (14,580).

But what cinched Evans’ first ballot status as a Hall of Famer is the fact that he tied Jerry Rice for the most consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards at 11. If Evans never played a down of football again after this season he’s already done enough to be a first ballot inductee.

Anytime the sentence begins with “the NFL record holders are Jerry Rice and…” well, the “and” guy is pretty special. And the “and” guy is Mike Evans. Don’t be surprised if breaks Rice’s mark next year with a 12th straight 1,000-yard season.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Is Yaya Diaby Coming On Strong At The End Of The Season?

Yes. Yaya Diaby has shown a ton of improvement this year in terms of rushing the passer and generating pressures. In fact, he finished ninth among edge rushers with a career-high 65 pressures this year, according to Pro Football Focus. For the third straight game Diaby got to the quarterback, sacking Spencer Rattler for his 4.5 sack of the year. Diaby notched a sack of Carolina’s Bryce Young last week and split a sack with Calijah Kancey of Dallas’ Cooper Rush the week before that.

Diaby led the team with 7.5 sacks last year as a rookie and was expected to possibly hit double-digit sacks again. While his number of pressures and his pressure rate win rate have increased – from 6.7% to 17.4% this year – Diaby hasn’t gotten to the quarterback as much as we thought in his second season in Tampa Bay.

Yet it seems Diaby has some momentum heading into the playoffs this year with 2.5 sacks and 10 pressures in the last three games. Diaby failed to record a sack in the Bucs’ two playoff games last year. And he only recorded four total pressures against the Eagles and Lions. Tampa Bay hopes Diaby can make his presence felt in the postseason and his arrow appears to be pointing up after his strong finish to the regular season.

QUESTION 2: Can The Bucs End Their Primetime Slump?

They’ll need to if they want to continue their quest for a Super Bowl appearance. The Bucs were 0-4 in primetime games this season, and that could be an ominous sign as Tampa Bay is set to host Washington in the NFC Wild Card game on Sunday Night Football on NBC at 8:00 p.m. ET.

The Bucs’ first primetime appearance this year came on Thursday Night Football in Atlanta where they blew a lead and lost in overtime, 36-30. Tampa Bay lost the coin toss and never got the ball as the Falcons scored a touchdown on their first possession in overtime. Up next was a Monday Night Football game against Baltimore in which Tampa Bay jumped out to 10-0 lead, but lost 41-31 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score would indicate.

The Bucs had a Monday Night Football road game at Kansas City and lost another overtime game, 30-24. Tampa Bay tied the game at 24-24 and played for overtime rather than trying to win it with a two-point conversion. That would prove costly as the Bucs lost the coin toss again and never possessed the ball on offense as Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs on a touchdown drive on their first overtime possession.

Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle 2-0 in Dallas and that sealed the team’s fate in a 26-24 loss on Sunday Night Football in Week 16, ending the Bucs’ four-game winning streak. Now the team has a chance at redemption in primetime with a home playoff game against the Commanders.

What could be a good sign is the fact that the Bucs had never won a game in which they didn’t score first. Tampa Bay was 9-1 in games in which it scored first and 0-6 in games it didn’t prior to Sunday’s win over the Saints. New Orleans scored first in Week 18, but Tampa Bay still prevailed, 27-19. So perhaps that’s a sign of things to come and the Bucs can end their primetime slump.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Sunday Night Will Be A Shootout

I can see the Bucs vs. Commanders game being a shootout. Perhaps the last team with the ball wins. Remember, a more cohesive, experienced Bucs team won back in Week 1, 37-20. That’s 57 combined points in the season opener in Dan Quinn’s first game as Washington’s head coach. Now with a full season in offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s system, look for the Commanders offense to be more potent.

Tampa Bay has the fourth-highest scoring offense this year, averaging 29.5 points per game with Washington finishing fifth at 28.5 points per game. The Bucs struggle to stop the pass and the Commanders struggle to stop the run. The team with the best defensive performance likely wins, as well as which team wins the turnover battle.

It should be a very entertaining playoff game for sure. The over/under is currently at 50.5 and that seems low. I’d bet the over right now.

PREDICTION 2: Bucs Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen Is Going To Be In High Demand

Pewter Report has reported for weeks that Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen was going to be a highly sought-after candidate for head coaching jobs this offseason. That’s coming to fruition, as the Jacksonville Jaguars have publicly stated that they are looking to interview Coen for the vacancy that was created with Doug Pederson’s firing.

Two weeks in my SR’s Fab 5 column I reported that the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots could fire their head coaches, Antonio Pierce and Jerod Mayo, and that happened over the 48 hours since the conclusion of the 2024 regular season. Coen, who was a quarterback at UMass, was born in Rhode Island and grew up a fan of Tom Brady and the Patriots.

The chance to play for the New England team he grew up following could be tough to turn down if he gets an interview and ultimately an offer. The Patriots already have a young quarterback in place in Drake Maye, last year’s first-round pick, and the most salary cap room in 2025 with $127.7 million.

But Brady is now a minority owner of the Raiders and it’s been reported that he will have a lot of influence over the head coaching hiring process, as owner Mark Davis has made several blunders over the year. Brady has called three Bucs games this year, including Sunday’s Week 18 game against the Saints in which Coen’s offense scored 27 points. He was also on hand to see Coen and Co. rip the Eagles defense for 33 points in Week 4. An in-person interview with Brady might be very tempting for Coen, and the Raiders have $107.3 million in cap space, which is the second-most in the NFL.