Zamir White’s 2024 Outlook & the Backup RB Effect (Fantasy Football)

In my last article, I talked about the “backup effect” and how backup RBs transition to becoming starters. I found that oftentimes, highly performing backups who put up incredibly efficient numbers as an RB2 cannot sustain the same pace when they take the reins. As usual, there are a couple of new starting backs this season who were previously backups — one of them being Zamir White. In this article we will take a look at White’s potential as a starter, and if he is at risk of the backup effect.

For reference, the below chart shows some notable transitions of high-upside backups into starters — incredibly high-performing RB2s typically disappoint relative to expectation in their first season as the lead.

Zamir White Outlook

When we look at Zamir White‘s efficiency as a runner, we aren’t necessarily blown away, which is a good thing, technically. White falls just above average for rushing yards per carry and well below average for fantasy points per rush. This shows us he is a fairly efficient runner (high rushing yards per carry) who hasn’t seen great opportunities (low fantasy points per touch). Additionally, following historical trends, since White’s numbers aren’t through the roof, we likely know what we are going to get — a smooth transition to RB1.

Last season, we had a test run of White as a starter and what we saw was enticing. He put up strong numbers, getting over 17 carries in each game, and scoring over 13 as well (PPR scoring). He finished as the RB20 or better in each of these weeks (with his best week at RB12). White surely has some maturing to do as a runner, but it doesn’t look like he is influenced by the backup effect, where RB2s get “easier” looks when the defense isn’t expecting them to get the ball.

Next, I compared White to some of the notable backups shown earlier in their RB2 breakout seasons. There are a couple of key takeaways. First, White isn’t TD-reliant — we saw with Alexander Mattison, who had a high TD rate, that he was unable to produce as a lead back when he wasn’t picking up Dalvin Cook‘s goal line runs to give his starter a breather. Second, we see yet again that his numbers aren’t through the roof.  While he likely won’t be a top-tier back, historical trends tell us it is unlikely he will regress much from his performance as a backup.

Conclusion

Zamir White‘s season is…confirmed. Based on his efficiency in his breakout season as a backup, White should be a strong option at RB. With Mattison as his backup, it is likely that White will earn the majority of the pass-catching opportunities as well, which will be key if young QB Aidan O’Connell is at the helm. In addition, the Raiders have bolstered their line in the offseason, selecting two linemen in the draft and signing Cody Whitehair and Andrus Peat during the offseason. While he might not be a top running back week in and week out, White could be a steal this season, especially in redraft leagues, where he is projected to go in the seventh or eighth round as the RB22.