Wild Card Weekend BALLER Model: Best Bets to Cover the Spread (Fantasy Football)

This article series covers BALLER*, a machine-learning betting model that predicts which team will cover the spread in each NFL game.

Through eighteen weeks, it has gone 53.8% overall, and since adjustments last week, it has gone 55.2% on its selected ‘Best Picks’ (‘Best Picks’ are determined through a combination of model confidence and outside football intuition). The model looks to bounce back on ‘Best Picks’ and realign with the overall average.

This is not an official Fantasy Footballers betting model* but hopefully a useful tool to make your decisions for fantasy and leans on certain spreads and who could cover. For the full array of betting material, find season-long and weekly props in the DFS Pass and tune in every week to the DFS & Betting Podcast.

In this article, I will break down the model’s best picks for Wild Card Weekend (four games) — let’s dive in!

Wild Card Weekend BALLER’s Best Bets

Keep in mind a couple of key points with this model:

• It focuses on the spread of the home team.
• It is applied primarily on which team can cover the spread, NOT “use this xSpread” the model spits out.

Green Bay Packers (+7.5):

The Packers are 3-1 against the spread as the underdog and 7-2 against the spread vs. teams with equal rest — and with a Cowboys team that has lost two of their last four (to the Bills and Dolphins), the stars may be aligning for the young Green Bay squad. Over the past five weeks, we can see their EPA/play has had a higher ceiling than Dallas’, largely due to Jordan Love‘s impeccable QB play. If he can stay hot, the Packers should have no problem covering this large spread.

Cleveland Browns (-2.5):

The Joe Flacco-led Browns have been red hot to finish the season, winning their last four games (discounting Week 18), and scoring over 30 points in three of those victories. Not only this, but their win streak included an emphatic victory over the Texans, 36-22. They’ve additionally averaged over 370 yards gained in these last five weeks while allowing opposing teams less than 295. They are a whopping 6-0 against the spread as the home favorite this season, and BALLER doesn’t expect this trend to change this weekend.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5):

While the Chiefs have been shaky this season, the Dolphins have been unable to win big games. They’ve only picked up ONE victory against a playoff team this season and fell to the Chiefs 21-14 earlier this year. They are 1-5 against the spread as the underdog and have been outscored 146-67 by AFC playoff teams thus far. Even though the critics might be counting Kansas City out as a major Super Bowl contender, their defense is playing at an elite level that we haven’t seen before — they’re only allowing 17 points per game, which is much lower than the previous years when they won it all (22.6 and 21.7 PPG). If the offense can clean up their look, KC should have no problem handling Miami. Look for the Chiefs to cover Wild Card Weekend.

Detroit Lions (-3.0):

The Lions will face the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night, in hopes of grabbing their first playoff win since the 1991-92 season. In addition to a chance at breaking the streak, they face a Matthew Stafford-led Rams team. A loss against their former franchise QB would hurt just a little extra. Luckily for the Lions, they’ve been the better team this season. Taking a look at their EPA/play trends, they’ve had higher highs and higher lows. While Goff has struggled a bit down the stretch, the BALLER model still loves Detroit to cover.  The cherry on top — they’re 10-4 this season against the spread as the favorite.

As always, feel free to reach out on Twitter with any questions!