What Do We Do With Bryce Young? (Fantasy Football)

Please raise your hand if you feel like you have been personally attacked by Bryce Young.

Exactly.

Young’s fantasy football story began so simply and with such hope. The Alabama QB was drafted first in 2023, and why not? Young was a Heisman winner, a national champion in 2020, and the SEC Offensive Player of the Year in 2021. Sure, he was on the smaller side for QBs – 5’10” and 204 lbs at his combine – but we have seen men of that size be successful in the NFL before.

Alabama QB Bryce Young

A+ poise, accurate, can beat you stationary inside of the pocket and with sandlot-like plays outside of it.

Size concerns, but he has the skillset to be a face of the franchise type of player right away. pic.twitter.com/7IRGlPTxuS

— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) March 23, 2023

Young was always far from a guarantee in fantasy circles. His size was a concern, but the talent was there, and the 1.01 draft capital (after trading up from the ninth pick) made it clear that the Carolina Panthers believed in the man.

It was not a good first year for Young. As the second overall pick, C.J. Stroud took the fantasy community by storm, adding insult to injury. Stroud finished as the QB11 with only one week outside the top 25. It was unexpected and made the future in Houston – and anyone that drafted Stroud in dynasty – look bright. Those who drafted Young, including Carolina, were left looking down at our hands, wondering what went wrong. 

As a new season dawns, as fantasy managers, what do we do with Bryce Young? Is there hope for him heading into this pivotal sophomore season?

Where Were We? 

If you didn’t own Young in any leagues, you might not have been privy to exactly how bad he was. He was not good, Bob.

Among 31 QBs who had over 290 dropbacks in 2023, here is how Young fared:

• PFF Passer Rating: 73.7 (31st)
• Sacks: 62 (2nd)
• YPA: 5.5 (31st)
• PFF Pass Grade: 52.6 (30th)
• CPOE: -1.4% (23rd)
• PFF Adj. Completion: 71.0% (29th)

But wait, let’s not bury the young man yet – we have seen a season like this from someone before. Trevor Lawrence had a rough rookie season in the NFL after being similarly touted as the QB that would save us all. In the Urban Meyer era in Jacksonville, Lawrence finished as QB22, throwing for 3,641 yards, 12 TDs, and a whopping 17 INTs. In that season, Lawrence put up similar numbers to Young in PFF passer rating (71.9), YPA (6), and PFF pass grade (58.3). Lawrence did, however, bounce back in his second season, proving quite serviceable for fantasy, especially at his ADP; he was the 18th QB off the board. In 2022, Lawrence moved up to QB8 putting up over 4,100 yards passing with 25 TDs and 8 INTs.

Lawrence cooled slightly last season, but he is a prime example of how coaching and overall team setup can significantly affect a talented QB. Could this be Young’s issue?

In late November 2023, Young lost his head coach, Frank Reich, who was fired after the team started 1-10.  Before that, the play calling was even messier – Reich started the season calling the plays, then handed it over to OC Thomas Brown, and then Reich took it back. Snip, snap, snip, snap. Chris Tabor came in as the interim coach after Reich left. All of this while Young was playing for a GM that didn’t do much, if anything, to provide his young QB with weapons (see Chicago Bears in the 2024 draft for a how-to video) or protect him in the pocket. 

Woof.

Where Are We Now?

Be the change you want to be in the world. Enter Dave Canales, a.k.a. the QB whisperer, to coach the Carolina Panthers. If you haven’t heard of Canales regarding Young, I hope you enjoyed your vacation in the middle of nowhere. 

Let’s recap his success.

Canales was the QB coach in Seattle in 2018. That year, Russell Wilson improved in almost every metric from his past two seasons while setting a career-best mark in passer rating.

Wilson improved in:

• Completion percentage
• Yards per attempt
• Touchdown rate
• Interception rate 

Canales did it again in Seattle with Geno Smith in 2022. That season, Smith threw 30 TDs and 11 INTs, made the Pro Bowl, and won countless fantasy managers championships. After proving successful in the Pacific Northwest, Canales headed to Tampa Bay to coach Baker Mayfield, who seemed like an afterthought for the Bucs after the departure of Tom Brady. 

Mayfield that season:

• 4,045 yards passing
• 28 TDs
• 10 INTs
• NFL passer rating of 94.6 (11th in the league)

In addition to improving the coaching, the front office made moves to help protect Young. Miami RG Robert Hunt and Seattle LG Damien Lewis joined the line, hoping to stop the massive defensive lineman barreling into Young. Young was sacked the second most last season – going down 62 times with 24.5% of pressures turning into sacks. If you managed to pressure Young last year, you had a one-in-four chance of getting him down. He had one of PFF’s lowest QB ratings.

Where Are We Going?

Panthers fans have their breath held as we enter the 2024 season, and for good reason. The path ahead is far from clear.

Who will Young be throwing the ball to?  Sure, the Panthers brought in Diontae Johnson, and the president of the local AARP chapter, Adam Thielen, is still there, but besides those two, you are looking at the unproven Xavier Legette along with Jonathan Mingo who has yet to get it together. Mingo had only one finish in the top 30 last season.

But, there is some big hope in the RB room with the addition of Jonathon Brooks, many people’s RB1 in this draft. Brooks is still recovering from his ACL injury and will be eased in slowly when available, but nothing helps a young QB more than the ability to dump it off to a strong pass-catching RB. Brooks had 29 targets in his final year at Texas.

Jonathon Brooks explodes for the 34-yard TD catch! pic.twitter.com/7UIaICgzwy

— Hook’em Headlines (@HookemHeadlines) December 30, 2022

The Dave Canales Effect

With three “wins” under his belt for Canales, this might be the true test. If he can fix Young he truly is a QB whisperer.  If he cannot do it, Young indeed might be past the point of no repair. So what does that mean for you, the fantasy manager?

When it comes down to it, it is about cost in redraft, and Young is practically free. Currently the 28th QB off the board in the 19th round, there are many leagues where you can grab him on the waiver wire and stash him on your bench if you believe in him. If he has a breakout, you can start him or use him in a trade offer to a team that has lost their superstar QB to an injury. Dynasty is a different beast. It is easy to drop Young if he is underperforming in redraft, but if you are like me and spent a very early pick on Young in dynasty, you are in quite a pickle. Trading Young now, even to a believer, will get you very little – managers know the status of the market. But if you drop him, he will indeed be picked up by someone, even for a “just in case” scenario.

The boring answer is to hold steady in dynasty  – you really have no other option – and if we do see Young improve, you would be in the position to bail out if you want to, with the hope of getting at least some value back. Unfortunately, those of us who drafted Young with one of the first picks in our rookie draft will never get the full value of that pick back in a trade. We must learn to accept this – our support meeting is the first Tuesday night of the month. Bring doughnuts. 

I ask you this, though: Could any QB have succeeded in Carolina last season? Young was in the worst situation a QB could be in, and he did the best he could. I was impressed at Young’s ability to hold his head high during the tumult.

His teammates seem optimistic. They say Young is poised to “take a big jump” in his second season, according to QB Andy Dalton. “We’re going to see Bryce do things he didn’t do last year just because of the experience,” Dalton said. “We’re already seeing it right now.” Adam Thielen also speaks highly of Young.

@athielen19

How is @_bryce_young progressing into Year 2 and what is the ceiling for the #KeepPounding QB?#NFL pic.twitter.com/pqWgbHsULS

— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) June 19, 2024

In drafting Young, you must keep your expectations in check – we are not forecasting a Josh Allen jump to greatness where Young becomes a top-10 QB for the rest of his career. However, serviceable QBs in fantasy football can be startable. Look at the Derek Carrs, Gardner Minshews, and Geno Smiths of the NFL – sometimes you need to take what you can get.