What Are Bucs Strengths, Weaknesses, And X Factor In 2024?

Earlier this month ESPN graded and analyzed the Bucs’ offseason, going over the handful of moves made by Tampa Bay in the hopes to improve upon a season in which they went 9-8 and won the NFC South for the third straight year.

Although the team has garnered some unexpected praise from one national media outlet, a recent ESPN+ article (subscription required) ranked each roster and does not have the Bucs as highly esteemed. NFL analysts Mike Clay, Aaron Schatz, and Seth Walder each dived deeper into the strengths, weaknesses, X factor, and a nonstarter to watch out for heading into this season.

What Is The Biggest Strength, Weakness Of The Bucs?

The Bucs placed 22nd in ESPN’s ranking ahead of the 2024 season, just behind the Falcons and Saints, who ranked 19th and 20th, respectively. Mike Clay began going over Tampa Bay’s roster by identifying its biggest strength and weakness, with both residing on the defensive side of the football.

Bucs Ss Jordan Whitehead and Antoine Winfield, Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Biggest strength: Safety. This group is anchored by 2023 first-team All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr., who became the highest-paid defensive back in league history in March. Old friend Jordan Whitehead is back for his second tour with the Bucs after playing over 1,000 snaps each of the past two seasons with the Jets. Tampa Bay added depth via Tykee Smith in the third round of April’s draft.

Biggest weakness: Edge rusher. This was a toss-up between edge rusher and interior offensive line, but the departure of Shaquil Barrett (45.0 sacks in five seasons) swung my decision toward the former. Tampa Bay will now turn to a combination of Yaya Diaby, newcomer Randy Gregory, second-round rookie Chris Braswell, former first-rounder Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Anthony Nelson as its core at the position. None of those veterans played more than half of his team’s snaps in 2023. This is a rough situation for a team that finished 22nd in pass rush win rate last season.

There is little doubt that the safety room has drastically improved over the offseason. While Winfield’s presence raises any group, the additions of Whitehead and Smith will help take some of the pressure off him on the backend as they will provide more coverage and playmaking support at strong safety than Ryan Neal did.

A recent topic on the Pewter Report Podcast went over just how stacked this position group is, which Clay further asserts.

Bucs OLB Chris Braswell – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

On the flipside though, edge rusher is where a lot of eyes are fixated on heading into the season. After losing Barrett, head coach Todd Bowles is hoping to find a consistent pass rush from a rotation of guys, unless one emerges from the group to pair alongside Diaby.

With there being a combination of youth and experience to rely on though, I’d argue that the interior offensive line remains a bigger weakness than outside linebacker with the starting left guard spot remaining up for grabs as well as the relative uncertainty of the level of play the team receives from both the center and right guard spots.

While Clay mentioned much of the team’s depth at the position, one also has to consider the possibility of Markees Watts and/or Jose Ramirez factoring in, and even without a top-tier pass rusher, this is a group filled with players that may benefit from working in a rotation to get the most production out of them.

What Is The Bucs’ X Factor?

With the Bucs’ biggest strength and weakness being laid out, Seth Walder then took to looking at the biggest X factor on this year’s team. One that will very much make or break the level of success Tampa Bay has.

Bucs C Graham Barton and RG Cody Mauch – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

X factor for 2024: The offensive line. Outside of Tristan Wirfs, the entire line is either a question mark or a concern. Cody Mauch ranked last among guards in pass block win rate (85%) last season, and Ben Bredeson (88%) wasn’t that much better with the Giants. Luke Goedeke (86%) was below average in the metric among tackles, and Graham Barton is a rookie. Whether QB Baker Mayfield can repeat his 2023 performance may hinge on this group.

As Walder explains, there is some concern for the offensive line room, but there should also be more optimism. Another year in their respective spots should help Wirfs, Mauch, and Goedeke improve their level of play, and doing so in a similar system under offensive coordinator Liam Coen provides much-needed continuity.

Barton should provide a spark to the offensive line, and there is a chance that he will hit the ground running and become a high-level starter right away, or at the very least, serve as an upgrade to Robert Hainsey. If Mayfield has any chance of replicating his success last season though, this is the group that will be entrusted to make it happen.

Can This Bucs DB Still Make An Impact In 2024?

Bucs DB Christian Izien – Photo by: USA Today

With much of the overview and explanation of the Bucs’ rankings being covered, Aaron Schatz took to pegging defensive back Christian Izien as someone to know heading into the season. Although he is not guaranteed a starting role at the moment, he very much could still make an impact all across the secondary.

Nonstarter to know: Safety Christian Izien. Nominally a safety, Izien was Tampa Bay’s nickelback for most of his rookie season. He was targeted a ton compared to other nickelbacks but had reasonably good charting metrics, including a better-than-average coverage DVOA of minus-4.2%. What will be his role this season? Is he a depth cornerback? A depth safety? Some sort of mix of the two?

Playing in all 17 games last season, Izien was an under-the-radar contributor.

He recorded 65 total tackles, two interceptions, and a forced fumble, but more than that, the undrafted free agent held down the nickelback spot without Todd Bowles having to worry much. He will need to iron out his consistency, but Izien has the potential to factor in again at nickelback or as a cornerback/safety in Bowles’ defense.

Where Tykee Smith lines up will factor greatly in this equation, but expect Izien to remain involved and on the field in some capacity.