USA vs Serbia Olympics basketball semifinal predictions, odds and best bets

Throughout these Olympic games, the United States has looked to be head and shoulders above the rest of the field in this men’s basketball tournament. That isn’t much of a surprise. After all, Team USA are heavy favorites to take home the gold medal, but that doesn’t mean the path to securing the top prize will be an easy one. After rolling through group play and Brazil in the quarterfinals, the United States continues its quest for a gold medal with a matchup against Serbia in the semifinal round. With a 16.5-point spread listed at most outlets, oddsmakers aren’t giving the Serbian national team much of a shot to hang with the United States in this one. But that’s why they play the games, right?

Let’s take a look at the odds and my prediction for this semifinal stage game in Paris.

USA vs Serbia men’s basketball betting lines and odds

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

Point Spread: Serbia +16.5, USA -16.5
Total Points Over/Under: 188 points
Money Line Odds: Serbia +950, USA -1650

USA vs Serbia men’s basketball best bet: Serbia +16.5 (-108)

Even for a team as talented as the United States, this entire tournament won’t be a cakewalk. I expect a much better effort from this Serbian team than what we saw in group stage play, especially since Nikola Jokic will likely play at least 35+ minutes in this game. The best player needs no introduction at this point, and he’s coming off a tremendous performance against Australia where he willed his team to victory after once trailing by 24 points. Serbia’s roster features 7 current or former NBA players, and they’ve proven their mettle in must-win games against South Sudan and Australia in this tournament. Jokic is joined by longtime Atlanta Hawks sharpshooter Bogdan Bogdanovic, as they lead a Serbia team that has international experience at every position, including Marko Guduric and Vasilije Micic.

While the United States looked dominant in the first meeting against Serbia back in group play, there’s no doubt that this will be the best effort the U.S. will see from Serbia. It’ll be the third time in the last month that these two sides have squared off against each other, which also points me in the direction of the heavy underdog. The United States has only covered the number in 2 of its 4 contests during these games, as it’s clear that securing a victory and advancing to the next round is more important to this team and coaching staff than winning by margin.

While the U.S. has looked much more comfortable as the tournament has gone on, they aren’t quite clicking on all cylinders yet, which has lead to diminishing returns from some of these talented All-NBA caliber players as they continue to adjust to their roles in international basketball. I do expect that the overall skill level and veteran composure of this USA side to win out on Thursday, I can see a game script where Jokic and Serbia make things uncomfortable for at least a half. The backdoor should be wide open late in the 4th quarter as well, so let’s take Serbia to cover this inflated number.

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