US Presidential Election 2024 Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets

The election betting odds on the US presidency in 2024 show a tight race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. However, the best political betting sites also hint at possible upsets that only the sharpest bettors will catch.

BetUS offers different US president odds, including:

• Which presidential candidate – or celebrity – will win the election.
• Whether the first female president will be elected in the 2024 election.
• Whether Democrats or Republicans will win the election or the popular vote.

Even though the presidential race seems like a rematch between Biden and Trump, other candidates could win in November. In this article, I explore the odds, highlight the key factors in the race, and share my predictions and best bets for the US Presidential Election 2024.

Election Betting Odds For The US Presidency 2024

The following odds on the US Presidential Election 2024 are courtesy of BetUS.

BetUS offers election betting odds on two types of candidates: the safe group and the risky group.

The safe group includes Trump and Biden. The risky group features 40 other politicians, celebrities, and other public figures. I only added Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Michelle Obama here because you shouldn’t take them seriously and risk your money on lost causes. In fact, the two I’ve added are also highly unlikely to win. Focus on the real candidates instead.

Trump remains the favorite to win, but the margin is slim. An early March Morning Consult poll only found Trump ahead by one percentage point. That’s the poll’s margin of error, and other sources of error could double it.

The USA president odds only reveal how enthusiastic Trump bettors are. They say little about voter sentiment, but I will come back to that in my analysis sections.

Before we get there, I have more US Presidency Election odds to show you.

More USA Presidency Betting Odds for 2024

We have winning party odds courtesy of BetUS.

There are also winning party odds for the popular voter, again at BetUS.

The next American president odds show a surprising amount of sophistication from election bettors. The Republican Party is favored to win the election, but not the popular vote. Four Republican presidents have lost the popular vote but won the election. Two of those presidents were George W. Bush and Donald Trump, so the pattern is part of modern politics.

The possible US presidency predictions and picks also reflect how remote a third party’s chances are of winning the White House.

The United States’ two-party system discourages third parties. There’s nothing in existing third parties that isn’t covered by one of the two major parties. The Green Party’s environmentalism is well represented in the Democratic Party.

The Republican Party already has a vocal Libertarian wing. To be successful, a third party would have to take up an issue that the other two parties didn’t touch. Both parties already have their hands full of important issues.

Party Approaches To Key Issues In The US Election

The Republican and Democratic Parties speak to different needs among voters. They approach key issues in almost opposite ways, so that might decide the elections in 2024. Let’s explore the most important ones.

Abortion Rights Advantage For The Democrats

One of the key issues boosting Democrats is abortion rights. Ever since the Supreme Court overturned the right to abortion on a federal level in June 2022, pro-choice policies have won on every state ballot where abortion was an electoral issue. Four states approved abortion protections, and three states rejected abortion restrictions.

Abortion rights not only mobilized Democrats. Politico also found that it turned Independents away from Republican candidates. Republican women voted against heavy restrictions, and the issue delivered a win to Kentucky’s Democratic governor.

While abortion isn’t the only issue that will decide the US presidential election, abortion rights will play a crucial role in it. Let’s look at other critical factors.

Republicans Favored On Immigration And The Economy

Republicans are consistently viewed as more capable of managing the economy and handling security threats. Immigration is related to both, and Republicans have a key advantage on the issue.

The Party favors tougher border security policies and restrictions on immigration. These positions align with blue-collar workers’ concerns about how increased illegal immigration affects their jobs.

Many of these workers have lost jobs to companies for one of two reasons. Some workers have been laid off after factories moved abroad to cheaper labor markets. Other workers were underbid by immigrants willing to work for lower wages. In the face of these experiences, working-class voters who lean left economically may be swayed to vote for Republicans based on these issues alone.

Abortion and immigration aren’t the only issues both parties can leverage. However, they’re among the most important issues for their voters. Trump and Biden’s challenge will be winning swing voters, who will really decide the election.

Swing Voters Will Could Decide The US Presidency In 2024

Stop reading national polls. Instead, read state polls in these eight states:

• Arizona
• Florida
• Georgia
• Michigan
• Nevada
• North Carolina
• Wisconsin
• Pennsylvania

These states’ electoral college delegates were decided by less than three percentage points in the 2020 Presidential Election.

Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia’s final votes were less than a 0.6% difference. They are the reason Biden is in the White House. If Trump had received a few thousand more votes in those three states, he would’ve won the electoral college by one vote and made it to a second term.

Either candidate could win the three close states or the five other swing states. Further, each of these eight states awards all their electoral college delegates to the winner. There’s no partial credit like there is in Maine.

Electoral college math is why every election is so close. California may be the most populous state, and its 55 electoral college votes are important. However, Republicans control large swaths of the South, Midwest, and the Great Plains. Both parties have found combinations of states that give them strong chances of winning the White House. That’s what makes the swing states so interesting and why odds for the next American president can change based on a small slice of the electorate.

Understanding the few tens of thousands of voters who will decide the election is a better guide to who will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. What’s the plan for each candidate?

Biden and Trump Have Different Approaches to Swing Voters

The Biden/Trump rematch was expected, and by mid-March, both candidates had the delegates to make it official. Both men have tried to court union workers in states like Michigan. During the second Republican debate, Trump was in Detroit at an event to express support for striking union workers.

Biden joined the same group of striking workers on the picket line shortly before Trump’s event. In February, the United Auto Workers Union endorsed Biden.

Auto union workers are a crucial part of Michigan’s electorate. It represents working-class autoworkers who’ve seen an industry collapse and hollow out major cities. This group is sensitive to measures that imperil their livelihoods. Biden has pulled back on emission regulations and electric vehicle incentives to give auto manufacturers a chance to catch up and reduce the threat to autoworkers’ jobs.

The two men have also clashed on immigration. Trump’s hard-line stance on illegal immigration was summed up by border policies that detained illegal immigrants before deporting them. His detention methods included the infamous “kids in cages” policy, which made family separation an intentional practice to deter illegal border crossings.

Biden hasn’t taken these measures. Rather, he has supported a bill that would have:

• Shut the Southern border down if illegal crossings reach certain thresholds.
• Increased funding for hiring ICE agents.
• Cutting years off the asylum application process.

During his 2024 State of the Union address, Biden called on Congress to send it to his desk for signature.

This was the same border deal that Trump implored Republicans to torpedo. Trump didn’t want to hand Biden the victory on immigration. Instead, he hoped to hold on to the issue until he could return to office and implement his own solution.

Trump’s failure to encourage border action, combined with his party’s support for state and national abortion bans, could imperil his ability to win in the general election. He may keep making Biden’s age an issue, but swing voters notice when politicians aren’t connected to the issues that matter to them. If Trump is perceived as disconnected from everyday issues, he’ll be more vulnerable than early polls imply.

2024 US Presidential Election Predictions and Betting Picks

While Donald Trump is favored to win on BetUS, his odds make him appear safer than he is. Trump and the Republicans have various vulnerabilities on the key issues of immigration and abortion. In contrast, Biden and the Democrats have pushed for legislative solutions to both problems that align with the whims of large swaths of voters.

The election will be closer than the current prices suggest, so backing Biden and Democrats makes sense. Since the odds for the current president are higher than backing his party, and that’s pretty much the same wager, betting on Biden is the sensible choice.

Still, if the odds drop below +100, I recommend skipping this wager.

Who Do You Back In The US Presidential Election 2024?

The US election odds for 2024 are close to my expectations, but I still think they underestimated the Democrats and Biden a bit. That’s why I recommend betting on them, but I know that many people will be backing Trump to win.

Either way, I strongly recommend using BetUS for your US Presidency best bets. The sportsbook offers high prices and a huge welcome bonus of up to $3,750 for new players. You can also get countless Election betting props on Trump, Biden, Mark Cuban, and a bunch of other candidates!