UFC 310 odds for this card are out as the UFC heads towards the end of 2024! A flyweight title match headlines the event in Las Vegas on Saturday, December 7, replacing a welterweight title encounter that had to be postponed.
Flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja will aim to defend his crown against UFC newcomer Kai Asakura, who was a champion at Rizin before joining the UFC. Will Pantoja stay at the top of the 125-pound ladder?
I’ll examine the UFC 310 betting odds for this match, and a welterweight title eliminator, and give you my UFC 310 predictions for both big matches!
The UFC 310 odds for this card are courtesy of Bovada, and you can find them by going to Sports > All Sports > UFC/MMA > UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Alexandre Pantoja: -240
- Kai Asakura: +200
UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja (28-5) has held the belt since July 2023, and the UFC 310 odds for this fight have held steady as Pantoja opened up at -235, and have gone as low as -220. He has settled at -240 about two weeks ahead of the fight.
Kai Asakura (21-4) is making his UFC debut after moving on from Rizin, where he was the bantamweight champion. He’s actually moving down in weight from 135 pounds to 125 pounds, which is a reason why he is the underdog coming into this title bout. Like Pantoja, Asakura’s odds haven’t moved that much, opening up at +185, going to +175, and now he sits at +200.
This fight was supposed to be the co-main event, but it is elevated to main-event status. Shavkat Rakhmonov was supposed to challenge welterweight champion Belal Muhammad for the belt. However, Muhammad had to bow out, due to an infection in a bone in his foot. I’ll have more on Rakhmonov following this fight.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| ALEXANDRE PANTOJA | FIGHTERS | KAI ASAKURA |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | AGE | 31 |
| 28 | WINS | 21 |
| 5 | LOSSES | 4 |
| 5’5″ | HEIGHT | 5’8″ |
| 125 LBS | WEIGHT | 125 LBS |
| 68″ | REACH | 69” |
| ORTHODOX | STANCE | ORTHODOX |
Pantoja likes to pressure his opponents, and he is well-rounded with eight knockout wins, and ten submission victories. “The Cannibal” has also shown he can take a punch and has never been finished in a professional MMA match. His power hasn’t translated that well as Pantoja hasn’t had a knockout win since Matt Schnell in December 2019, but the pressure usually wears on his opponents. If you go to the mat, Pantoja is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Asakura would like to keep this fight standing, as he has won 13 of his 21 victories by knockout, and he hasn’t submitted anyone since July 2016. The biggest concern around Asakura is the weight cut, as he hasn’t fought at flyweight since December 2015. However, he claims that he’s not worried about making weight.
Recent Performance and Form
Pantoja’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Steve Erceg via Unanimous Decision, May 4, 2024
- WIN vs. Brandon Royval via Unanimous Decision, December 16, 2023
- WIN vs. Brandon Moreno via Split Decision, July 8, 2023
- WIN vs. Alex Perez via Submission, July 30, 2022
- WIN vs. Brandon Royval via Submission, August 21, 2021
Pantoja submitted Brandon Royval in the second round of their August 2021 fight, mixing up striking and wrestling to gain control of the match. The Brazilian then choked out Alex Perez after just 1:31 of their meeting.
Pantoja then eked out a tough split decision over Brandon Moreno to win the flyweight title, in a match that was a “Fight of the Year” candidate. It was his second victory over Moreno as the 34-year-old won by unanimous decision in May 2018.
“The Cannibal” then beat Royval again, this time by unanimous decision in December 2023, using his pressure and takedowns to dominate the match. Most recently, Pantoja survived with a unanimous decision over Steve Erceg in May, but Erceg showed Pantoja could be hurt with strikes. The champion overcame it to keep his belt.
Asakura’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Juan Archuleta via TKO, December 31, 2023
- WIN vs. Yuki Motoya via KO, May 6, 2023
- LOSS vs. Hiromasa Ougikubo via Unanimous Decision, December 31, 2021
- WIN vs. Kenta Takizawa via Unanimous Decision, December 31, 2021
- WIN vs. Alan Yamaniha via Unanimous Decision, September 19, 2021
Asakura defeated Alan Yamaniha by unanimous decision in the Rizin Bantamweight Grand Prix quarterfinal in September 2019. The Japanese star then fought twice on New Year’s Eve, 2021. Both of the matches were decided by unanimous decision as Asakura defeated Kenta Takizawa in the Grand Prix semifinal, but he lost to Hiromasa Ougikubo in the final.
The 31-year-old returned in May 2023 to drop Yuki Motoya with a knee to the body. In December 2023, Asakura was challenged by Juan Archeleta, who missed weight for the vacant bantamweight title fight. This meant Asakura was the only one eligible to win the belt, and he did so in the second round by TKO, again, using a knee to the body.
Pantoja vs. Asakura Betting Pick
Asakura is a talented fighter, but this might be a bit too much for him in his UFC debut. Pantoja is the most talented opponent he has ever faced, and that’s not even getting into the weight cut. Asakura says he’ll be able to manage it, but going 25 minutes in a new weight class with a champion is a tough ask.
I’m going with Alexandre Pantoja to retain his title, and I think he’ll use his pressure to tire Asakura out, and then cruise through the championship rounds. If he can stay out of Asakura’s range, Pantoja should remain on top of the flyweight rankings.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Shavkat Rakhmonov: -320
- Ian Machado Garry: +260
Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0) is surely disappointed that he won’t get a crack at the belt, but a win over Ian Machado Garry (15-0) is, in fact, a title eliminator. Rakhmonov opened up at -290 as the favorite in these UFC 310 betting odds, and for a good reason. “Nomad” is undefeated, and has finished every single fighter he has faced. He did move down to about -265 at one point, but he’s back up to -320.
Garry started around +215 as an underdog, and is down to +260, but Rakhmonov shouldn’t overlook the Irish fighter. Garry is a talented fighter who has been lobbying for a title shot for a while now. If he can beat Rakhmonov, “The Future” will indeed get his chance.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV | FIGHTERS | IAN MACHADO GARRY |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | AGE | 27 |
| 18 | WINS | 15 |
| 0 | LOSSES | 0 |
| 6’1″ | HEIGHT | 6’3″ |
| 170 LBS | WEIGHT | 170 LBS |
| 77″ | REACH | 74” |
| ORTHODOX | STANCE | ORTHODOX |
Rakhmonov’s bread and butter is his grappling, but he is also a good striker that comes at his opponents from different angles. Eight of his wins have come by knockout, while the other ten have been by submission. His style isn’t easy on the eyes, but it’s no doubt effective for Rakhmonov, who has absolutely rolled through the competition.
Garry is a little more flashy with his striking, and he’ll want to keep this fight standing up. He has a takedown defense rate of 69%, which will be tested by Rakhmonov. Garry has just one submission win, and that came back in his third professional fight in November 2019. He’ll want to stay out of Rakhmonov’s range and try to catch him with a counter.
Recent Performance and Form
Rakhmonov’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Stephen Thompson via Submission, December 16, 2023
- WIN vs. Geoff Neal via Submission, March 4, 2023
- WIN vs. Neil Magny via Submission, June 25, 2022
- WIN vs. Carlston Harris via KO, February 5, 2022
- WIN vs. Michel Prazeres via Submission, June 26, 2021
Rakhmonov mauled Michel Prazeres and submitted him back in June 2021, but it was set up by some nice striking combinations. He did the same to Carlston Harris, hitting him with a heel kick to the head, and finishing it with ground-and-pound.
Veteran Neil Magny lasted two rounds with “Nomad” in June 2022, mixing striking and takedowns to land a guillotine choke for a win. Geoff Neal missed weight for his fight against Rakhmonov, who submitted Neal in the third round of their fight.
His last match against Stephen Thompson was very impressive as the two felt each other out in the first round. But Rakhmonov would have the last laugh as he took down “Wonderboy” and became the first person to submit Thompson in his career.
Garry’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs Michael Page via Unanimous Decision, June 29, 2024
- WIN vs. Geoff Neal via Split Decision, February 17, 2024
- WIN vs. Neil Magny via Unanimous Decision, August 19, 2023
- WIN vs. Daniel Rodriguez via TKO, May 13, 2023
- WIN vs. Song Kenan via TKO, March 4, 2023
Garry had a busy 2023, fighting three times. The first was in March, when he knocked out Song Kenan in the third round. Then, Garry scored a head-kick TKO over Daniel Rodriguez just over two months later. “The Future” then went on to defeat Magny by unanimous decision, dominating the UFC vet, and you could argue Garry had two 10–8 rounds.
The Irishman then fought Neal in February 2024 in a dull match in which Garry looked to play it safer than we’ve seen him do in the past. That lined up Garry with Michael Page, and while Garry earned the unanimous decision, some thought that Page won the fight.
Garry used his grappling more than he ever has, which is fair against an elite kickboxer like “MVP”. But the 27-year-old hasn’t really looked great as he has stepped up in competition.
Rakhmonov vs. Garry Betting Pick
Garry might be able to pull off a counter, but I think this is Rakhmonov’s fight to lose. He can lean on his grappling to slow things down if Garry gets going, but Rakhmonov can also strike with the Irish fighter. Rakhmonov is also extremely durable, and I’m not sure that Garry has the power to put the Kazakh man down.
Let’s take Rakhmonov to stay on his championship path, and when the betting markets are released closer to fight night, take a good look at Rakhmonov Inside Distance.
Where to Bet on UFC 310 Odds?
In closing, here are my UFC 310 predictions for these two massive fights:
- Pantoja (-240)
- Rakhmonov (-320)
You can parlay those two fights to get UFC 310 odds of -104 for these matches!
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