UFC 309 odds for November 16’s card in New York City at Madison Square Garden feature a pair of huge favorites in the biggest fights of the night. But in the fight game, anything can happen!
Jon Jones looks to defend his heavyweight title against former champ Stipe Miocic in a spectacular legacy fight. Michael Chandler aims to avenge his loss to Charles Oliveira in a major lightweight fight that won’t be short on firepower!
I’ll sift through the UFC 309 betting odds for this fight, and give you my predictions and best bets for both of those fights at the end of this article. I’ll also recommend a parlay to get you more value!
The UFC 309 odds for this card are courtesy of Bovada, and you can find them by going to Sports > All Sports > UFC/MMA > UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic.
Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Jon Jones: -650
- Stipe Miocic: +450
Heavyweight champion Jon Jones (27-1, 1 NC) opened up around -300 at some UFC betting sites, but they have shortened to an astonishing -650 as of November 5! It shouldn’t be a surprise as Jones seems to be the consensus GOAT of MMA, or he is at least in the conversation. The former light-heavyweight champion has an implied probability of 86.7% to win this fight!
TWO MORE WEEKS 👀#UFC309 IS ALMOST HERE!! pic.twitter.com/qCaIos4Aol
— UFC (@ufc) November 3, 2024
Meanwhile, Stipe Miocic (20-4) is one of the greatest heavyweight fighters of all time, but UFC 309 betting odds aren’t giving him much of a chance. Miocic opened around +240, but is now around +450 with less than two weeks to go. That means there is a ton of betting value laying with Miocic, but he’s a massive underdog for a reason.
Both men are also hinting at retirement after this fight, but it would be nice if the winner went on to face interim heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall, who has dominated the division recently.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| JON JONES | FIGHTERS | STIPE MIOCIC |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | AGE | 42 |
| 27 | WINS | 20 |
| 1 (1 NC) | LOSSES | 4 |
| 6’4” | HEIGHT | 6’4” |
| 248 LBS | WEIGHT | 234 LBS |
| 84.5” | REACH | 80” |
| ORTHODOX | STANCE | ORTHODOX |
Jones entered MMA as a wrestler but quickly became one of the most well-rounded fighters I’ve ever seen. His Muay Thai striking is strong, and “Bones” might have the most vicious elbows in MMA history.
Jones is also adept at submissions, as proven by his standing guillotine against Lyoto Machida. His bread and butter is still his wrestling, and Jones has landed 36 of 97 takedowns. If he takes you down, the ground-and-pound will get you.
But Jones’ best attribute is his fight IQ. Jones, with his coaches fantastic at creating a gameplan for an opponent and then executing it.
Miocic also started out as a wrestler in MMA, but he is now one of the best boxers ever at the heavyweight level. The two-time heavyweight champion wants to go for your head, but he showed in his second fight against Daniel Cormier that Miocic can work the body. Miocic can lean on his wrestling if the going gets tough, but that’s going to be an issue against Jones, who has a takedown defense rate of 95%.
Recent Performance and Form
Jones’ Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Ciryl Gane via Submission, March 4, 2023
- WIN vs. Dominick Reyes via Unanimous Decision, February 8, 2020
- WIN vs. Thiago Santos via Split Decision, July 6, 2019
- WIN vs. Anthony Smith via Unanimous Decision, March 2, 2019
- WIN vs. Alexander Gustafsson via KO, December 29, 2018
Jones won the light-heavyweight belt (which was vacant) for the second time by knocking out Alexander Gustafsson in December 2018. Then he won decisions over Anthony Smith, Thiago Santos and Dominick Reyes, but you could argue that Jones lost the Santos and Reyes fights. He looked unmotivated and lethargic by his standards.
But Jones would take nearly three years off after relinquishing the 205-pound belt, as he wanted to bulk up to move to heavyweight. His first fight in his new class was against Ciryl Gane for the vacant heavyweight belt. The 37-year-old made short work of the Frenchman, submitting Gane in 2:04 seconds to claim the heavyweight belt.
Miocic’s Last Five Fights
- LOSS vs. Francis Ngannou via KO, March 27, 2021
- WIN vs. Daniel Cormier via Unanimous Decision, August 15, 2020
- WIN vs. Daniel Cormier via TKO, August 17, 2019
- LOSS vs. Daniel Cormier via KO, July 7, 2018
- WIN vs. Francis Ngannou via Unanimous Decision, January 20, 2018
Miocic faced Francis Ngannou in January 2018, and won that fight handily by staying out of Ngannou’s range, and then taking him to the mat. Next was a trilogy against then-light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier, and Cormier stunned Miocic to win by KO to win the heavyweight belt.
The 42-year-old would regain the belt over a year later by TKO, and then a year after that, Miocic put the trilogy to bed with another win over Cormier. But then Miocic ran into an improved Ngannou in March 2021, and lost by second-round KO.
Jones vs. Miocic Betting Pick
I have all the respect in the world for Miocic, and he’ll go down as one of the greatest heavyweights in all of MMA, not just the UFC. He does have excellent value in these UFC 309 odds at online sportsbooks , but I don’t think Miocic wins this fight.
Despite the lack of low odds for Jones, I would bet on him to win this, and I would wait until the betting markets come out with Inside-Distance odds. I think Jones will finish him. He has more ways to win this fight. He can (and will) take Miocic down, and “Bones” could be the first man to submit Miocic.
But he can also stand and strike with his opponent, and Jones might be the bigger man on fight night. If you are going to bet on this fight, bet on Jon Jones to win, and parlay it with the next fight on this card.
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Charles Oliveira: -245
- Michael Chandler: +205
Charles Oliveira (34-10, 1 NC) is the former UFC lightweight champion. He would love to get back up to the top of the contender list. The Brazilian opened up around 198 in these UFC 309 betting odds, but has shortened to -245 with less than two weeks to go. Those odds at offshore sportsbooks give Oliveira an implied probability of 71% to win!
Michael Chandler promises a “mind blowing” win in his #UFC309 rematch vs. Charles Oliveira. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/U7USKpMiLe
— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) November 4, 2024
Michael Chandler (23-8) opened around +160, and is now up to +205. He was due to fight Conor McGregor at various points in 2023 and 2024. The two even filmed a season of “The Ultimate Fighter” together as coaches. But Dana White shut down the prospect of McGregor fighting this year.
Instead, Chandler will enter this fight as the underdog at UFC betting sites, as this is a rematch from May 2021. Oliveira scored a TKO win over Chandler in that fight, but Chandler almost finished Oliveira in the first round.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| CHARLES OLIVEIRA | FIGHTERS | MICHAEL CHANDLER |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | AGE | 38 |
| 34 | WINS | 23 |
| 10 (1 NC) | LOSSES | 8 |
| 5’10” | HEIGHT | 5’8” |
| 155 LBS | WEIGHT | 156 LBS |
| 74” | REACH | 71” |
| ORTHODOX | STANCE | ORTHODOX |
Oliveira is one of the best submission artists that the UFC has ever seen. His 16 submission wins are the most in UFC history, and the same goes for his 20 finishes.
“Do Bronx” does everything he can to get his opponent to the mat, but he has improved his striking as well. Oliveira can ground-and-pound his opponents on the mat, but the Brazilian can mix up his striking with punches to the head and body, as well as leg kicks.
Chandler was an All-American wrestler, which was his foundation when he entered MMA. “Iron Mike” is also a powerful striker who has grown more technical throughout his career, and he almost put Oliveira’s lights out with a left hand in their first fight. Chandler is also good on the mat with seven submission wins, but he might want to steer clear of a grappling match with “Do Bronx”.
Recent Performance and Form
Oliveira’s Last Five Fights
- LOSS vs. Arman Tsarukyan via Split Decision, April 13, 2024
- WIN vs. Beneil Dariush via TKO, June 10, 2023
- LOSS vs. Islam Makhachev via Submission, October 22, 2022
- WIN vs. Justin Gaethje via Submission, May 7, 2022
- WIN vs. Dustin Poirier via Submission, December 11, 2021
A pair of submission wins over heavy hitters Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje put Oliveira in a lightweight title fight against Islam Makhachev for the vacant belt. It should be mentioned that Oliveira was the 155-pound champ in those two fights, but Oliveira was stripped of the belt against Gaethje for missing weight. But Makhachev, the current lightweight champion, submitted Oliveira in the second round, overwhelming him with pressure.
The Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace bounced back with a TKO win over Beneil Dariush in June 2023, sending Dariush to the mat with punches and ending it with ground and pound. But at UFC 300, Oliveira lost by split decision to Arman Tsaruyken in a very close fight.
Chandler’s Last Five Fights
- LOSS vs. Dustin Poirier via Submission, November 12, 2022
- WIN vs. Tony Ferguson via KO, May 7, 2022
- LOSS vs. Justin Gaethje via Unanimous Decision, November 6, 2021
- LOSS vs. Charles Oliveira via TKO, May 15, 2021
- WIN vs. Dan Hooker via TKO, January 24, 2021
Chandler, a three-time Bellator lightweight champion, made his UFC debut in January 2021 and knocked out Dan Hooker in the first round. That earned him a shot against Oliveira for the vacant 155-pound belt, but Oliveira survived a tough first round and knocked out Chandler in the second.
The Nashville native then lost to Gaethje in the 2021 Fight of the Year at UFC.com, then put Tony Ferguson to sleep with a vicious head kick in May 2022. Chandler was submitted by Poirier in his most recent fight, which was November 2022.
Oliveira vs. Chandler Betting Pick
Chandler definitely got the better of Oliveira in the first round of their first fight, but “Do Bronx” made some adjustments going into the second round. He caught Chandler with a 1-2 combination, and then ended the fight with a series of left hands.
If Chandler shows more patience this time, and doesn’t go for the knockout right away, he can beat Oliveira. However, I’m going to give the nod to Oliveira, and this time, I believe he’ll submit Chandler, so wait for that UFC betting market to be released closer to fight night. Oliveira survived that first round, so he can take Chandler’s power, and he has power as well. If this goes to the mat, it’s a wrap.
Where to Bet on UFC 309 Odds?
In closing, here are my UFC 309 predictions for these two massive fights:
- Jon Jones (-650)
- Charles Oliveira (-245)
You can parlay these two fights together to get odds of -160! But you should also wait for more betting markets to find even more value in both the Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic odds, and the Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler odds.
You can make all these UFC 309 bets at Bovada, where you’ll also receive a welcome bonus of 100% up to $1,000, simply by using the promo code, BV1000! Keep an eye on Bovada for those betting markets, don’t miss out
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