U.S. Open Tennis Day 1 Predictions: Today’s Expert Picks & Best Bets – Schwartzman faces Monfils in final U.S. Open

With Wimbledon and the Paris Olympics in the rearview mirror, it’s on to the U.S. Open. The season’s fourth and final Grand Slam gets started on Monday in New York City, where Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are among those taking the court.

Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 1 schedule, and also be sure to check out my best outright bets on both the men’s and women’s sides. 

Diego Schwartzman +6.5 games over Gael Monfils (-120)

Schwartzman may not be the Schwartzman of old (that’s why he is retiring early in the 2025 season), but he finally has momentum after qualifying for the U.S. Open main draw. The 32-year-old Argentine did it with victories over Andrea Pellegrino, Thiago Agustin Tirante (the top seedin qualifying), and highly touted Lithuanian teenager Vilius Gaubas. Although Schwartzman is well past his prime, perhaps we should not be surprised that he is once again finding success at Flushing Meadows. It has always been one of his favorite events, having advanced to the quarterfinals twice while reaching the fourth round in 2021. It would only be fitting if Schwartzman made a real run in his last U.S. Open appearance. Meanwhile, Monfils is 37 years old and is a question mark from a physical standpoint every time he takes the court. That is especially the case in a best-of-5 situation. Schwartzman should be able to make this competitive, and if he turns it into a long match, he might even win it outright.

Viktoriya Tomova +4.5 games over Ekaterina Alexandrova (-118) 

Alexandrova and Tomova first met on tour 8 years ago at none other than the U.S. Open. That encounter came in qualifying, won by Tomova. They also squared off in round one of this season’s French Open, where Tomova also prevailed. Alexandrova leads the head-to-head series 3-2, but only once in 5 meetings has she covered a -4.5 spread. There is no reason to think she will suddenly do it again on Monday. Alexandrova is a disappointing 4-6 in her last 10 matches overall and she has never played particularly well in New York City. Tomova is comfortable in this particular matchup and has a good chance to pull off the upset. 

Parlay: Casper Ruud ML over Yunchaokete Bu and Lorenzo Musetti ML over Reilly Opelka (-117) 

Both Ruud and Musetti should take care of business on Monday. Ruud has won a boatload of matches on hard courts this season and he is a former U.S. Open runner-up (lost to Carlos Alcaraz 2022). His opponent is the little-known Bu, who has won only a single match on the main professional tour in his entire career – and that was via retirement. Opelka can be dangerous due to his booming serve, but he is just now coming back from basically 2 years away from the game because of injuries. From a physical standpoint, it’s hard to see the 6’11’’ American surviving a best-of-5 situation. Moreover, Musetti has been red hot this summer – with a semifinal run at Wimbledon semifinal and a bronze-medal performance at the Olympics

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