Trending or Ending: Players for 2024 (Fantasy Football)

The days of holding our breath for a third-year breakout in fantasy football are mostly behind us. These days, if a player doesn’t flash as a rookie, or even in their second season, we’re ready to write them off as a bust. Instead, we look for players like Justin Jefferson and Jaylen Waddle who were “drafted to be great” and start making an impact for fantasy in the first year of their careers. Last season, Nico Collins did something that almost nobody saw coming. He made the jump from WR88 and WR78 in his first two seasons, respectively, to WR9 in just 15 games played. And he wasn’t the only player to enjoy an unexpected breakout. Players like David Njoku, Baker Mayfield, and Gus Edwards also took the leap into fantasy relevance last year. In this article, I’ll look at some history of late-bloomers in fantasy, and explore whether I think these four players can maintain fantasy relevance — at least for one more year.

Nico Collins

Collins’ slow start to his career wasn’t due to a lack of opportunity. He averaged 71% of his team’s snaps in 2022 over 10 games played, and his average of 6.6 targets per game that season was only slightly lower than his 2023 average of 7.3. So what changed? The short answer is C.J. Stroud. Nico’s catchable target rate of 50.0% (!!) in 2022, mostly with Davis Mills as his QB, jumped to a whopping 78.0% last season with Stroud. That’s a very high number for a wide receiver who is frequently getting targeted in the intermediate and deep ranges of the field.

Looking ahead to this season, the good news for fantasy managers is that CJ Stroud isn’t going anywhere. As far as target competition, the Texans brought in a big name this offseason, but the addition of Stefon Diggs shouldn’t scare away fantasy managers. Diggs looked past his prime toward the end of last season, and Collins just proved he doesn’t need extremely high target volume to succeed in this offense.

As far as historical data to support Nico’s sustained success, there isn’t much. It’s rare to see a player finish outside the top 50 in their first two seasons and then explode for a top-10 season in their third season, much less transform into a perennial top-10 player. There was, however, one other player to follow a similar path, and he goes by the name of Davante Adams. Adams finished as the WR74 and WR69 in his first two seasons before jumping to WR8 in his third year. 

I’m not saying Nico Collins is a future Hall of Famer like Davante Adams, but I do see some parallels between the two players. Collins has the talent and the elite quarterback play to sustain WR1 output for years to come, and I like him at his current ADP of WR14.

Final Verdict: Trending

David Njoku

Just your classic seventh-year breakout, Njoku finished last year as the TE6 with a receiving line of 81 catches for 882 yards and six TDs (all career-highs). Over his final 11 games played, he finished in the top 12 at the position 10 times, and he ended the year with four consecutive top-three finishes at the position. He also added seven receptions for 93 yards in the Browns’ only playoff game. It was a truly dominant run for Njoku, so surely he will carry all that momentum into next season, right? Not so fast.

Njoku’s most dominant stretch (from Week 13 on) happened to coincide with a quarterback change to none other than Joe Flacco, who came out of retirement to save the Browns’ season and win Comeback Player of the Year. Despite this success, Flacco is now backing up Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis, and the Browns will turn the offense back over to Deshaun Watson. It’s almost like Cleveland owes Watson some money or something.

Jokes aside, Watson went 5-1 as a starter last year, though in one of his starts, he completed one pass on five attempts with an interception. The problem for Njoku is this:

You can look at this data in one of two ways. On the one hand, it’s impressive that Njoku dealt with such a quarterback carousel and still managed to finish as the TE6. On the other hand, he averaged just 6.6 fantasy points per game when Watson started, and 12.1 with all other starters. Hopefully, the Browns learned something about the type of player they have in Njoku and continue to utilize him as a weapon for their offense, but the fact is that we have a six-year sample size before last season with Njoku being a weekly streaming option at best in fantasy football. 

Njoku’s season reminds me a little bit of a fellow Cleveland Brown, Gary Barnidge, who happened to be one of the great one-year wonders in the history of the tight end position. It’s not a huge risk to grab Njoku at his current ADP in the eighth round of fantasy drafts, but I wouldn’t expect to lock him in as your every-week starter. There are likely better options later in drafts.

Final Verdict: Ending

Baker Mayfield

Make no mistake, Baker didn’t win fantasy players their leagues last year, but he did post his first-ever top-10 finish at the position and the first 4,000-yard passing season of his career. He also made his first Pro Bowl, winning 11 games (including playoffs) and taking the Buccaneers to the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs. Prior to last season, Mayfield’s career-high fantasy finish was QB16 as a rookie in Cleveland. 

In 2023, Mayfield found himself in a great situation with high-powered weapons in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and an offensive coordinator in Dave Canales who wasn’t afraid to let him throw the ball around the field. Canales left for browner pastures (Carolina), and his replacement, Liam Coen, might bring a slightly slower pace of play to Tampa Bay this season. The last time Coen was an offensive coordinator was in 2022 with the Rams, when they ran the fourth-fewest plays in the NFL. Speaking of pastures, Mike Evans isn’t getting any younger. He’s coming off one of the best seasons of his career, but he’s crossed the age-30 threshold, and it might be time to put him out to pasture soon. 

I don’t expect Mayfield to come crashing back down to Earth this season, but I do think we just saw the best season of his career. Similar to 2022 Geno Smith, who finished as the QB5 out of nowhere, I think last season was the perfect storm for Mayfield, and I expect some regression back to his mean this coming season. There’s a reason he’s currently being drafted as the QB21. You can safely stay away from him in single-quarterback leagues.

Final Verdict: Ending

Gus Edwards

Gus “The Gus Bus” Edwards has been a cult favorite in fantasy circles for a long time, and not just because he has a sweet nickname. During his first three seasons in Baltimore (2018-2020), he always seemed to produce when called upon, albeit in a backup or limited role. He spent most of the 2021 and 2022 seasons injured, but last year, in his sixth season as a pro, he finally put together a complete season, appearing in all 17 games and finishing as the RB21. His rushing metrics weren’t all that impressive, posting just 4.1 yards per attempt on 198 rushes, but he found the end zone 13 times in a Ravens offense that spent a lot of time down near the goal line. 

This season, Edwards heads to Los Angeles to be the feature back in what shapes up to be a run-heavy offense under their new head coach, Jim Harbaugh, and Edwards’ former OC, Greg Roman. It seems like a perfect fit for a powerful back like Edwards. His new quarterback, Justin Herbert, has traditionally been one to lean on his running backs in the passing game, but pass-catching backs like Austin Ekeler don’t just grow on trees, and Gus Edwards has been far from a receiving specialist during his career. His 13 targets last year matched a career-high. 

Still, Edwards should have no problem finding touches in an offense where his main competition is, ironically, his former teammate in Baltimore J.K. Dobbins, and sixth-round rookie Kimani Vidal “Sassoon.” Expect Edwards to see north of 200 carries this season and return solid value for fantasy drafters who snag him at his current ADP of RB37. He reminds me of Carlos Hyde, who was actually drafted by Jim Harbaugh in 2014 and took a few years to get going, but eventually turned into a productive, bruiser-type back in the NFL. 

Final Verdict: Trending