Things That Matter & Things That Don’t: Week 9 (Fantasy Football)

The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here. Is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out some of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.

The Return of the Mac: OBVIOUSLY MATTERS, BUT IT COULD FINALLY HAPPEN!

Christian McCaffrey is one of the most important players in fantasy football, any way you slice it. In 2023, he became the second player in the modern era to finish as the overall RB1 three times (Marshall Faulk was the other). His unique blend of elusive running, workhorse capacity, and elite route running make him one of the most unique players of a generation; his game is impervious to game script, his consistency is off the charts, and his upside is unparalleled by any other modern RB. But we know all that, which is why McCaffrey went first overall in summer drafts.

It has been a bummer rolling with the punches after a potentially serious Achilles tendonitis issue became known to most fantasy drafters after it was already too late. While we can all agree that we want to protect CMC’s precious Achilles-es-es, we are equally anxious to see his return. And it might come this week against Tampa Bay; his practice window was opened Monday, and reports seem optimistic.

The Niners have been battling the injury bug all year, but they seem to be getting mostly healthy at just the right occasion. There is no guarantee McCaffrey will jump right into his traditional workload, but if he passes the test in Week 10, it would be easy to see such a process accelerate, possibly as soon as Week 11 for a juicy matchup against Seattle.

The Trade Deadline: MIGHT MATTER

While many will be focused on one crucial deadline for our nation on Tuesday, nerds like us may keep one tab open on The Fantasy Footballers’ Fantasy Football News page to see if any big stars receive new zip codes. Cooper Kupp (probably rescinded), Bryce Young, Alvin Kamara, Khalil Herbert, Miles Sanders, Mike Williams, Kendrick Bourne, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, and more are among those who have been frequently bandied about in potential trades.

Speculating on who goes and who doesn’t may feel like an exercise in futility, and I wouldn’t waste any valuable resources on these types of maybes. Still, it might not be a terrible idea if you have a spare bench spot or two you aren’t thrilled about and want to add an available name or two from this list through Tuesday.

Another helpful thing we can glean is which teams are taking the rest of the year seriously or just taking the year off. We can use this to deduce theories on what veterans might soon be benched and which younger players are in a situation where their team might want to take an extended look, beneficial practice with QBs in tight SuperFlex leagues.

Tank Wars: MATTER, BUT YOU HAVE TO KNOW WHAT TO LOOK FOR

Do NFL teams tank for better draft capital? Yes, but it’s an abstract concept. Just because a team has a bad record this time of year doesn’t mean they will race to the bottom. These things are somewhat nuanced, and the personnel still lingering around may not be incentivized to lose because, though it could benefit the franchise long term, the individual may pay the consequence before that comes to fruition. The players will never want to tank; the coaches will execute a tank by finding excuses to sit the players who give them the best chance to win.

Take the Saints; they are out of the race already. If Chris Olave’s concussion – his second in a month – is deemed severe, they will be without their two starting WRs. Their line is in shambles. Ryan Ramczyk, Erik McCoy, Paulson Adebo, Marshon Lattimore, Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller, and Kool-Aid McKinstry are all injured. Obviously, they have nothing to play for in 2024. But they just fired their coach, and Interim Head Coach Darren Rizzi may want to make a great impression with hopes of parlaying it into a bigger gig (not only do some coaches, like Antonio Pierce, get retained; others, like Dan Campbell, get much-needed exposure that can propel them toward a job later). Rizzi may not feel inclined to go along with the tanking plan.

On the other hand, a team like New England, which was expected to be bad and is working through the growing pains of a young team, may not be as opposed to it if HC Jarod Mayo and the upper management feel their positions are secure enough to get away with it.

As of today, the following teams seem likely to indulge the tank: New England, Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee, and Carolina.

Teams that seem like they might have more significant priorities than tanking: N.Y. Jets, Las Vegas, Jacksonville, N.Y. Giants, Dallas, and New Orleans.

Taysom Hill: MATTERS

If you’re in a league where Hill is TE-eligible, he is probably unavailable; if he is out there, make sure that doesn’t last long. The beauty of Hill is that he plugs into a position that is already volatile and from which we already expect so little. If a player is drawing a 17% target share (as Hill did Sunday), taking periodic carries in the green zone, or throwing passes, he’s offering many more outs to achieve fantasy production.

The compiling injuries in New Orleans only offer Hill more potential opportunities with the football. We’ve seen this sort of thing before. Ultimately, the thing we seek most from out-of-left-field acquisitions is the upside. Hill is capable of 30-point fantasy games.

Injuries in Dallas: DEFINITELY MATTER, DUH

The Cowboys have been a disappointment in 2024. They have already been dovetailing from a playoff contender to an outsider. The injury bug has bitten them, sure. But this trend has been ongoing all year. Even throughout their slow start a year ago, odd game script scenarios made it relatively easy to rationalize; this year, it felt like a far more legitimately flawed product.

That won’t be made better by a pair of fresh injuries Sunday. Dak Prescott has a hamstring issue and is expected to miss several weeks. CeeDee Lamb came down hard on his shoulder, and it seemed fortunate he could continue in the game against Atlanta. It looked like a clear AC joint issue, and that’s what it is; today, there is optimism it is not too bad, and Lamb will keep playing. But needless to say, it isn’t great for Lamb or anyone else if their star QB misses significant playing time.

Zack Moss’ Neck Injury: MATTERS TO CHASE BROWN

From the sound of it, the injury that kept Zack Moss out of action Sunday may keep him out for a long time; it is possible Moss will even hit the IR. This is very troubling, and we wish Moss the best.

With Moss out of the lineup, the committee dissipated, and Chase Brown was left with the lion’s share of the work, going off for 27-120-0 and adding 5-37-1 through the air. That’s a true-blue featured back workload.

If Moss’ situation is only now clarifying, the Bengals should be expected to have some kind of response, whether signing a player or trading for one; most likely, they’ll take from someone’s practice squad. Even so, there are few backs out there that threaten Brown in terms of talent. If he receives even 75% of his workload from here on out, he could be a legitimate difference maker and help many to championships.

The Raiders’ QB and RB Changes: DON’T MATTER

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a coach more eager to bench a QB than Antonio Pierce has been to stick Gardner Minshew on the pine. Minshew’s already lost his job once, which went to Aidan O’Connell, who eventually got injured. This time, Desmond Ridder came in Sunday and led a TD drive (he also took four sacks quickly).

Remaining with Ridder (or O’Connell if he can return) may make sense, as he is younger and more untried. Because of this, the move may stick. However, Ridder won’t resurrect the offense; the roster is too flawed, and Ridder isn’t good enough to elevate them. When Vegas returns from a Week 10 bye, their next three matchups are brutal. As such, it is far more likely they stay on the treadmill of mediocrity.

Ameer Abdullah is not going to change much, either. RBs don’t affect the game as much as other positions, and Abdullah’s had plenty of chances to alter his perception. The reality for the Raiders is that no one is coming to save them, and this is how it will likely remain all year.

Nick Chubb’s Return: SADLY, MAY NOT REALLY MATTER

This pains me. Few are easier to root for than Chubb; the Browns’ fan base could use a win for all the agony they’ve endured. It just doesn’t look like he’s right. But the Browns are a bit too dysfunctional and a bit too out of the race. On Sunday, they did something that may have been a little unexpected – when Jerome Ford returned from an injury that’s kept him out of action, they gave him the lion’s share of the snaps. Granted, this was because he was treated as the pass-game specialist due to a deficit; I wish I could say this Browns team won’t often have a deficit, but that would be optimistic.

This seems like an ominous sign for those hoping for back-weighted production from Chubb. It is entirely possible the remainder of this year is a chance to get him back into the swing of things slowly, and he won’t be set free until 2025. Sadly, if it remains a three-person committee for a mediocre football team, there’s no fantasy juice for anyone.

Trey Benson Is Ramping Up, Which: PROBABLY MATTERS

When you take an RB in the third round, and he’s the second one taken in the whole enchilada, you hope that RB is pretty good. Did the Cardinals already have an RB? Sure, they had veteran James Conner. As a competitive team, it makes sense they would utilize Conner a lot more to start the year, especially as he was playing quite well, but it is not uncommon to see rookies cut into the share more and more as the season goes along.

That appears to be happening in Glendale. Benson has primarily been used in low-leverage situations in the year’s first half. Now, he is starting to get touches in the meaty parts of the game.

These are still in small doses, but he got more first-half snaps and carries than ever and looked good when he had the ball. He is still mainly a contingency-based back, but if his workload grows slightly from here, he could fall into that “flex with benefits” class of RB. As a result, we can expect Conner’s workload to fall in response. Roster Benson if he is available, and keep your eyes peeled.

A.J. Brown’s Injury: DOESN’T SEEM TO MATTER, BUT WHEN HE’S OUT, IT MATTERS FOR DEVONTA SMITH

The initial reports were not great, but things have settled, and A.J. Brown is listed as day-to-day. There are even reports he’ll be ready to face Dallas this week.

That said, we should continue to monitor his health, and as a response to Brown’s absences, think of Smith as a WR1. When Brown is missing, including the playoffs, Smith averages 7.5 receptions for 96.75 yards and half a TD per game; extrapolated over 17 games, that equals 128-1,645-9. Dial him up if Brown misses time against Dallas.