The Upside Case for Drafting Will Levis in 2024 (Fantasy Football)

Below is a helpful checklist you can use to help you make a great early impression at your new job:

1. Be punctual
2. Dress appropriately
3. Make great eye contact and remember names
4. Publicly advocate for something foolish
5. Be quick to listen and slow to speak
6. Show enthusiasm

Wait. Did you say publicly advocate for something foolish?

Maybe? I don’t know. For my third article with the Fantasy Footballers? Should I? (deep, labored breath, followed by an inordinately long pause) I’m gonna go for it.

Will Levis on Film

Will Levis has been very topical with the Fantasy Footballers of late. Our editor Kyle Borgognoni started this by posting a 36-minute montage of every Levis throw in 2023 over the 4^th of July weekend.

I asked myself the question… “Can it work? Can Will Levis dropkick the doubters?”

Every. Single. Will. Levis. Play. Go! pic.twitter.com/34fQaJh26a

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) July 8, 2024

Even better, this was preceded by an amazing blooper reel of Levis falling, fumbling, and failing.

Anybody still into Looney Tunes?

Will Levis: I got you. pic.twitter.com/6Gt6qj4U3f

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) July 7, 2024

Then, he was discussed by the Ballers on the AFC South preview pod, where he drew tepid optimism from Andy and concern from Jason about his offensive line.

If I’m being honest, I’m not what anyone should call a Will Levis stan. If we could strip it down to brass tacks, I think I would answer the true-false version of the Will Levis test this way:

Q: Will Levis is a good quarterback

A: False

Q: Will Levis will finish as a top 12 quarterback in fantasy in 2024

A: False

So, here is why you definitely should draft him.

A Titanically Stupid Off-Season?

Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans enjoyed four consecutive winning seasons, two division championships, three playoff appearances, a 1-seed in the AFC in 2021, and an AFC Championship game appearance in 2019. But even amid their successes, there always seemed the possibility they were an average roster propped up by above-average coaching. Vrabel consistently ranked high on various “best coaches” lists and was even the NFL Coach of the Year in 2021.

With two straight sub-.500 seasons and an aging roster, the Titans moved on from Vrabel this offseason, in addition to Derrick Henry, a player so aligned with the Titans’ identity that he singularly defined an era. Henry was still productive but aging. The offensive line, once mighty, had cracked and crumbled, finishing as PFF’s 32^nd-ranked line in 2023, dead last. There were promising young players, but not many. The Titans had become a pair of great jeans that had worn a little and been patched, but patches were no longer enough when another set of decayed threads seemed to bust every day.

After the team cleared out Vrabel, Henry, and much of the old regime, many assumed they would undergo a complete demolition to set up the chess board for a new game. But surprisingly, the Titans spent $230.8 million in free agency, the third-highest total in the league this spring.

Not only so, but they collected an aging and somewhat underwhelming Calvin Ridley, who has yet to fully squeeze into his old superhero costume since he came back from nearly two years off. They also signed Tony Pollard, who lost a boatload of efficiency in his first full year as a bell cow, overlaps considerably with remaining Titans’ RB Tyjae Spears’ skillset, and is growing long in the tooth for the position. With a considerable amount of historical data condemning the use of free agency to flip a franchise from bad to good, many called the Titans fools.

The likely (perhaps only forgivable) reason? They want to see what they have in Levis.

Levis was, at times, thought to be a first-round QB in waiting before the 2023 draft; just before the event, rumors swirled he would be a top-five pick. Instead, he slipped away, finally drifting into the Titans’ fishing net at 33, the first pick on Day 2.

Levis’ Week 7 debut was scintillating, as he went 19-29 for 238 yards, throwing no picks, and scoring a TD on about every seven throws. Even so, his passes were close to receivers but not always bullseyes; Hopkins helped him look good a few times, busted coverages a few others, and Levis probably came out with bigger numbers that day than he deserved. His 29-point fantasy effort was never equaled again; Levis eclipsed 20 on only one more occasion.

But he is incredibly toolsy, fairly athletic for a linebacker-shaped QB, and has a strong arm. Also, several factors created a steep headwind for the start of his NFL career.

Despite having the fewest passing snaps in the NFL, the Titans surrendered the fourth-most pressures, second-most QB hits, and most sacks. They ranked dead-last in PFF’s Pass Blocking Efficiency metric, had the fourth-worst pressure rate, and caused pressure rate (occasions when at least one offensive lineman is responsible for a sack). The Titans also ranked in the bottom half of the league in PFF team receiving grade and pass rate from a neutral game script; they tied for the fourth-slowest pace-of-play based on neutral script seconds to snap.

There is no guarantee the situation is better, of course, but the Titans have done all they can; that’s the point of this silly spending. They entered 2023 with the second-most cap space before free agency, a product of clearing out some old dogs and having a rookie signal caller. Paralyzed by a promising QB that endured so much adversity, the new regime still didn’t know what they had. And having so much money to spend, the Titans took what was behind Door No. 2; they bought up any resource they could to outfit Levis with the slightest bit of offensive competency. Did it matter the pieces didn’t fit? Did it matter their age? Not from Tennessee’s perspective, apparently, because all the spending amounted to was a recon mission to discover if the QB they need is the one they already have.

Deep Into That Darkness, Peering Long

There is a thin mathematical correlation between the percentage of passing yards completed deep and future fantasy scoring; conversely, there is a negative correlation between the percentage of passing yards completed at or near the line of scrimmage and future fantasy scoring. In other words, it is statistically provable that QBs who tend to convert more passes downfield score more fantasy points, and QBs who tend to convert more shallow passes score fewer.

Twenty of the 65 players who have converted over 36% of their passing yardage on throws 15+ yards downfield since 2018 have had 300 or more fantasy points the following season. Eight were 400-point seasons; there were only 14 such seasons during that span. Levis completed a remarkable 50.4% of his 2023 yardage on deep passes, the highest rate of any QB since 2018.

How can a QB throw deep if there is constant pressure? The Titans addressed the offensive line by adding Lloyd Cushenberry, who had the third-best PFF pass-blocking grade in 2023 among centers with at least 250 offensive snaps. They selected J.C. Latham at No. 7 in the NFL draft. Last year’s first-round pick, guard Peter Skoronski is a year older, and Nicholas Petit-Frere, 2022’s third-round pick will try and finally climb into the starting lineup at right tackle.

Of perhaps more importance, new HC Brian Callahan talked his old man, Bill Callahan, into coming back to the NFL. The elder Callahan is widely regarded as one of the greatest offensive line coaches in NFL history.

The ADP is Low & the Upside Decent

Most of us know Year Two is great for breakout WRs, but it is also great for QBs. Simply by being in his second season, Levis has elevated breakout potential.

It should be stated that Levis does have some athleticism but not the kind that will result in a legendary Konami Code season. He never rushed for more than 25 yards in any single game. If we buy into Levis for his athleticism, we’re doing it wrong; it isn’t enough.

So we know we don’t want to invest substantially into QBs without mobility, but Levis is going as the QB24 according to Fantasypros ADP, practically undrafted in single-QB leagues. In this range, which is devoid of high-athleticism options anyway, his upside is encouraging. We want to target upside in this range; if a player doesn’t work out, we can move on from him, especially at QB, where streaming is easier.

I’ve heard speculation Levis could be replaced mid-season by Titans’ free-agent acquisition Mason Rudolph, one of the better backups in the league. Maybe, but I think it would take some time for something like that to materialize. The mission behind the mission of seeing what Levis gives them incentivizes the Titans to give Levis a long leash; we know what Rudolph is, as he has already started plenty of NFL games, and he is not the future.

It is a high-stakes time for Levis, who may lock himself into a starting spot with good results, but bad results may relegate him to the role of a career backup. If the Titans feel he is a player worth building around, we could see them attempt to build around him in the draft, something they preserved by not trading a haul to move up in the draft and take someone else.

For our purposes, Levis offers a decent shot at something bigger than we might normally find at the very back of the draft. If he hits the highest end of variance, he could offer QB1 upside. I would take a shot on Levis over ADP cohorts like Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Derek Carr, especially given that these players could still be available for us to scoop up if Levis misses.