The TRUTH: Top QBs in 2023 Part 2 (Fantasy Football)

Sometimes the TRUTH can hurt, but it’s something we need to hear! The Ballers are doing the dirty work in review of the 2023 fantasy season looking into how much fantasy QBs really helped fantasy managers this season. 

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To hear the TRUTH about the Top-10 QBs, check out the January 18 episode of the podcast.

Before we get to the list, here’s a look at how the TRUTH data algorithm considers performances from the season using a half-point PPR scoring format:

• Great Games are more than 26 points
• Good Games are more than 21 points
• Bust Games are fewer than 15 points
• Missed Games don’t count against consistency score

Quarterbacks Overview

It’s important to note that in 2023, there were 43 different QBs who produced a top-12 QB finish, which is less than there were in both 2022 (45) and 2021 (50). To make matters worse for fantasy managers who had to shift directions at QB, the average fantasy output for a QB12 in 2023 was just 18.5 points, the second-lowest mark over the last five years. The injuries piled up for NFL QBs this season, with eight of the top 16 QBs drafted according to ADP missing at least four games this season, which made pivoting at QB even more crucial to fantasy managers down the stretch.

11. Russell Wilson | Broncos

Age: 35.1 | ADP 15.03/QB19

15 games – 297/447 for 3070/26/8 and 80/341/3 rushing

2023 Consistency Rank: 20

1st Half: 18  / 2nd Half: 17

Fantasy managers looking for Russell Wilson to have a bounce-back season with Sean Payton taking the reins in Denver were left disappointed. Wilson still had arguably his best season since 2020 and saw an uptick in nearly every passing category from 2022. While Wilson had a better season overall, he struggled to bring fantasy relevance consistently. Wilson only finished as a top-12 QB six times this season and only finished higher than the QB6 once. It was that lack of high-end finish that made it nearly impossible for fantasy managers to know when they’d be happy with him in their lineups. 

The road forward for Wilson is murky at best after he was sat for the last two games of the regular season in Denver so the organization could “keep their financial options open.” Wilson still has five years left on the deal he signed with the Broncos ahead of the 2022 season, and while there is little financial advantage for Denver to cut him ahead of the 2024 season, it’s still clearly an option that the team is considering.

12. C.J. Stroud | Texans

Age: 22.2 | ADP 19.03 / QB26

15 games – 319/499 for 4108/23/5 and 39/167/3 rushing

2023 Consistency Rank: 7

1st Half: 3 / 2nd Half: 15

The brightest future we’ll talk about today comes with C.J. Stroud and his tremendous rookie campaign in Houston. After being taken with the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Stroud became the first rookie ever to support two top-15 WRs in points per game. Stroud finished his rookie season with the highest yards per pass attempt for any rookie with at least 300 passing attempts since 2000. What’s possibly more impressive is Stroud’s willingness to push the ball up the field, finishing with the second-most air yards per pass attempt and completion percentage on deep attempts, converting on 56% of those throws.

What may be the tougher conversation about Stroud is his fantasy outlook going forward. While Stroud was fantastic as a rookie and was able to consistently produce for fantasy managers, he can fall into the group of QBs who will need to throw 40+ TDs to give the high-end fantasy finishes we’re looking for. The Ballers agree that Stroud should be viewed in the same tier of QB as Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow – QBs who don’t have a high running baseline but are capable of sustaining fantasy success through the air. Fantasy managers will have a tough call to make come draft season in 2024 depending on exactly how high the hype for Stroud gets and what kind of draft capital you’ll need to invest.

13. Sam Howell | Commanders

Age: 23.3 | ADP 20.01 / QB27

17 games – 388/612 for 3946/21/21 and 48/263/5 rushing

2023 Consistency Rank: 28

1st Half: 12 / 2nd Half: 30

In his first full season as a starter, Sam Howell was one of the few late-round QBs that provided fantasy success for rosters this season. Howell was a top-12 QB nine times but finished as the QB5 or higher just three times. In fact, Howell was one of just two QBs on the season who had a streak of six or more starts as a top-12 QB (the other was Jalen Hurts). While Howell provided a safe floor for most of the season at the QB spot, he didn’t finish higher than the QB25 during the fantasy playoffs including a game where he scored -1.8 points in Week 16. Howell did have a rushing floor that helped hide some of his inefficiencies in the passing game for fantasy, adding 263 yards and five TDs on the ground.

Looking forward for Howell, it seems unlikely that he’ll be favored to be under center in 2024, which means his fantasy-relevant days could be completely done. The Commanders hold the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and are likely to choose one of the top QBs. Unless Howell can somehow win the starting job in Washington over a highly-drafted rookie, fantasy managers shouldn’t be thinking about Howell again barring a trade or injury.

14. Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars

Age: 24.2 | ADP 5.09 / QB8

16 games – 370/564 for 4016/21/14 and 70/339/4 rushing

2023 Consistency Rank: 18

1st Half: 20 / 2nd Half: 13

One of the highest-hyped QBs to take a step forward in 2024, Trevor Lawrence may have left fantasy managers with more questions than answers this season. Lawrence was given every opportunity to return on his fifth-round draft value with the fifth-most total dropbacks in the league. Among the 108 QBs with 4,000 passing yards over the last decade, Lawrence ranks 105th in adjusted yards per attempt, 104th in passing TDs, and 104th in passing yards per game. Lawrence was able to string together some strong fantasy finishes in the middle of the season with three straight top-six QB finishes from Weeks 11 to 13, but only threw for more than two TDs once in a game this season.

It’s possible that Lawrence may need to be downgraded in fantasy managers’ heads from a QB with top-six upside to a streaming option that needs to have their matchup taken into consideration. The consensus among the Ballers is that while he is still a capable QB for the NFL, the days of considering Lawrence as a player with top-end fantasy potential may be over. With all the hype that surrounded Lawrence coming into the league, it’s disappointing to have to box him into a streamer category after just three seasons.

15. Matthew Stafford | Rams

Age: 35.9 | ADP 19.02 / QB25

15 games – 326/521 for 3965/24/11 and 21/65/0 rushing

2023 Consistency Rank: 13

1st Half: 21 / 2nd Half: 4

One of the more surprising names that may have been a savior to QB-needy teams this season was Matthew Stafford. The Rams dealt with plenty of injuries to their offensive weapons early in the season and it directly affected Stafford’s ability to produce for fantasy. However, when Kyren Williams returned from injury in Week 12, the Rams averaged 31 points per game and Stafford ripped off five straight top-12 QB finishes, throwing for at least two TDs per game during that stretch. 

What will be concerning for Stafford going forward is father time pressing against his ability to continue producing for fantasy managers. Stafford will be 36 when the 2024 season starts and being productive after that age has been difficult for QBs. Since 2011, there have only been five QBs who finished inside the top 10 during their age-36 season, the last of which was Ben Roethlisberger in 2018. Stafford may be one of the more interesting late-round QB names to monitor ahead of the 2024 fantasy season given the success he had in 2023 and all his weapons returning in L.A.

16. Justin Herbert | Chargers

Age: 25.8 | ADP 4.08 / QB6

13 games – 297/456 for 3134/20/7 and 52/228/3 rushing

2023 Consistency Rank: 12

1st Half: 5 / 2nd Half: 20

Perhaps the most frustrating fantasy finish at QB comes from the other team in L.A. with Justin Herbert. Herbert started the season on fire, ranking as the QB1 in points per game through Week 6, averaging 23.3 fantasy points and completing a very nice 69% of his passes, but that success trailed off down the stretch of the season. Injuries to some of his best offensive players didn’t help Herbert, with Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Joshua Palmer missing at least three weeks each and then missing the last month of the season himself with a fractured finger.

While Herbert is still young and many of the main pieces with the Chargers should be in L.A. with him in 2024, there is still plenty of uncertainty in the organization. L.A. will be hiring a new head coach and offensive coordinator, and with Austin Ekeler heading into free agency, the feel around Herbert is pretty up in the air until we get answers to some of those questions. For fantasy managers, the biggest concern has to be if investing in Herbert going forward will give you the return of a top-five QB, based on where his draft value has been.

17. Justin Fields | Bears

Age: 24.8 | ADP 4.10 / QB7

13 games – 227/370 for 2562/16/9 and 124/657/4 rushing

2023 Consistency Rank: 11

1st Half: 9 / 2nd Half: 11

In what seems to have been a year-long audition for the rest of the league, Justin Fields remains a bit of an uncertain asset heading into the 2024 offseason. Fields did miss four games during the middle of the year, but when he returned, he displayed the high-end ceiling that makes fantasy managers drool, finishing as a top-eight QB in four of his last seven games. It wasn’t just his own fantasy finishes that should have impressed fantasy managers, but Fields supported a top-12 WR in DJ Moore who finished as the WR6 on the season.

Having Justin Fields as a fantasy asset isn’t so much a question of what he can do on the field, but rather where he’ll get to do it next season. It’s feeling more likely that the Bears are going to take a QB with the first overall pick in the draft, which should lead to Fields being dealt elsewhere. Fields will have one year left on his rookie deal which should make the contract less of a concern for whoever invests in him next. Fantasy managers will have to take a wait-and-see approach over the summer to determine how in or out they’ll be regarding the young QB for 2024.

18. Derek Carr | Saints

Age: 32.8 | ADP 17.03 / QB23

17 games – 375/548 for 3878/25/8 and 32/40/0 rushing

2023 Consistency Rank: 30

1st Half: 30 / 2nd Half: 19

A new location didn’t produce better results for Derek Carr in 2023. Carr’s exit from Las Vegas was messy and his new situation didn’t produce any better results, despite having arguably the best set of weapons he’s ever had along with a defense that didn’t require him to score 30+ points to win games. Bringing in the Carr was still an option though for fantasy purposes. Carr had two stretches this season where he was a top-12 QB in three of four weeks, but he still only scored more than 20 points three times this season.

Unless something drastically changes, Carr should be penciled in as the starter in New Orleans again next season with four years left on the deal he signed over the offseason. What’s frustrating for fantasy managers is that there should still be plenty of fantasy production to be had based on his supporting cast offensively, but Carr has never been able to consistently take advantage of it. In his 10 seasons, Carr has never finished as a top-12 QB on the year and has only surpassed 30 passing TDs once. A low-end fantasy streaming option is all fantasy managers should probably expect from Carr going forward.

19. Geno Smith | Seahawks

Age: 33.2 | ADP 12.01 / QB15

15 games – 323/499 for 3624/20/9 and 37/155/1 rushing

2023 Consistency Rank: 23

1st Half: 24 / 2nd Half: 12

It feels like Geno Smith caught lightning in a bottle in 2022 because his 2023 season looked more like his first nine years than it did his QB5 finish fantasy managers were wanting a repeat of. Smith dropped to 15.1 fantasy points per game from 17.9 in 2022 and that was partially due to a dip in big plays produced. In 2022, Smith led the league in 20+ yard TDs but had a full 10 less this season.

Many would have assumed the Seahawks were going to draft Geno’s replacement last season when they had two first-round picks, but instead, they extended him and didn’t draft a QB at all. With changes coming at the head coach position in Seattle, the leash for Smith could be shorter going forward. Unless Smith can turn in another season similar to 2022 and less like 2023, we may be seeing the end of his fantasy relevance sooner rather than later.

24. Kirk Cousins  |  Vikings

Age: 35.4  | ADP 10.07 / QB14

8 games – 216/311 for 2331/18/5 and 14/25/0 rushing

2023 Consistency Rank 1st Half: 9

What started as an exciting season for Kirk Cousins came to an early end after just eight games played. Cousins was the QB6 through Week 8 and averaged nearly 300 passing yards and over two passing TDs per game. During that stretch, Cousins only failed to finish as a top-12 QB twice and finished as the QB6 or higher three separate times. His high-end finishes made Cousins one of the best late-round values for fantasy managers this season and could have been a league-winning type player had he been able to finish the season.

The future is full of uncertainty though for Cousins going forward. While he’s made it clear he’s willing to take a “hometown discount” to stay with the Vikings, there will surely be other teams he’ll have to consider before committing to play in 2024. Cousins may be one of the biggest QB dominos to fall in free agency this summer, but should still be someone fantasy managers have on their radar for at least the next few years.

25. Joe Burrow  |  Bengals

Age: 27.1  | ADP 4.02 / QB5

10 games – 244/365 for 2309/15/6 and 31/88/0 rushing

2023 Consistency Rank: 31

Believers in Joe Burrow’s fantasy value will need to just delete the 2023 season from their memories. After a rough start to the season over the Bengals’ first six games where he finished as a top-12 QB just once, Burrow looked much more like himself in Weeks 8-10 with three top-seven QB finishes in a row before injury. It’s unfortunate we didn’t get to see Burrow finish the season with all the pieces in Cincinnati, as Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both set to hit free agency.

What’s hard to gauge about Burrow is that his name value inflates his fantasy value so much that investing a fourth-round pick for him may never really return its value. While it’s clear that Burrow is a great NFL QB and has the ability to throw 40+ TDs, he would need to perform at least at that level to return such high draft capital. It will be worth watching this summer to see who the Bengals bring in as their new offensive coordinator and whether or not they’ll work to replace some of the receiving options that could leave town.

26. Kyler Murray  |  Cardinals

Age: 26.4  | ADP 17.04 / QB24

10 games – 244/365 for 2309/15/6 and 31/88/0 rushing

2023 Consistency Rank 2nd Half: 8th

For fantasy managers who were willing to wait for his return from injury, Kyler Murray returned decent value in 2023. Murray missed the first nine games of the season and posted four top-12 QB finishes in the last eight games of the season. What may be concerning about Murray’s performance this season is the lack of week-winning games that we have seen on occasion in years past. The lack of “great” games could be attributed to the supporting cast around Murray, so how the Cardinals choose to address the offensive weapons will be worth monitoring this summer.