The Race to TE1: 10 TEs Vying for the Top Spot (Fantasy Football)

After several years of Travis Kelce dominating the fantasy football tight end landscape, new and hungry contenders have emerged, eager to claim the throne. From 2016 to 2020, Kelce secured the top spot, but in two of the last three seasons, Mark Andrews and Sam LaPorta have managed to sneak in and seize the crown. Despite Kelce’s continued dominance well into the later stages of his career, several players appear poised to challenge for the TE1 title in the upcoming season. These include seasoned veterans, rising stars, and a few dark horses ready to surprise the field. Let’s explore the cases for and against each contender vying for the TE1 spot in 2024!

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Tried & True Vets:

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

The Case For…

While his girlfriend has notably been on “The Eras Tour,” Travis Kelce has been crafting an era of his own in fantasy football dominance. Approaching his 35th birthday and 12th NFL season, Kelce remains a formidable force, as strong a bet as anyone to finish as the TE1 in 2024. Kelce had a remarkable five-year run as the TE1 and has not finished outside the top three at the position since 2015. Last season, Kelce managed to finish as the TE3 despite starting the year injured, missing the first game, and gradually ramping up his playing time.

Even with a slight dip in total points, Kelce tied Sam LaPorta for the highest fantasy points per game average. LaPorta played all 17 games last season, which bolstered his case as a top contender for the TE1 spot. However, Kelce still managed to surpass LaPorta in several key metrics: he had one more target, seven more receptions, and 95 more receiving yards. The primary factor that elevated LaPorta’s fantasy finish above Kelce’s was his 10 touchdowns, compared to Kelce’s five. 

Historically, Kelce has had seasons with fewer touchdowns yet still finished as the TE1, averaging over eight touchdowns per season since 2017, including three seasons with double-digit totals. While Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Hollywood Brown project to be integral parts of this potent offense, none pose as significant a touchdown threat as Kelce. With Kelce entering the 2024 season in full health and remaining the top target for the league’s best quarterback, there is every reason to believe he can increase his touchdown total and reclaim his crown as the top tight end in fantasy football.

The Case Against…

Now that we have outlined several reasons why Kelce can finish as the top tight end in fantasy football in 2024, let’s consider why it might not pan out. The most obvious factor is Kelce’s increased age, poised to enter his 12th NFL season at nearly 35 years old. Although he has already defied typical age-related declines at the position, Father Time remains undefeated and will inevitably catch up with him. According to Marvin Elequin’s article “The Lifecycle of a Dynasty Tight End,” only 8.3% of all TE1 seasons since 2010 have come from tight ends 33 or older. While it feels impossible to imagine Kelce not finishing in the top 12 at the position in 2024, achieving the overall TE1 status is a different challenge.

Looking at his metrics from 2023, Kelce’s production declined by 25%, and he posted his lowest snap share since 2014. Additionally, his average depth of target (aDOT) has dropped for seven consecutive years, indicating that he might be experiencing a gradual decline in speed and performance. While Kelce may no longer be the overwhelming positional advantage he once was over other top tight ends, he remains a strong bet to finish near the top of the position in 2024. However, these factors suggest that finishing as the overall TE1 could be a difficult task.

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

The Case For…

While many were quick to crown Mark Andrews as the new king of the tight end position for fantasy football after he dethroned Travis Kelce as the TE1 in 2021, that might have been premature. Following his TE1 season, Andrews finished as the TE4 in 2022 and faced difficulties last season that prevented him from finishing in the top five for a third straight year. Notably, he missed the final five games of the season due to a fractured fibula sustained in Week 11. While his devastating injury is what most will remember from last season, it is significant to recall how dominant he was in the nine games he played. 

Andrews finished as a TE1 in eight of those nine games and managed to score one more touchdown than Kelce, despite playing just over half the season. Remarkably, his six touchdowns tied for the second most among all tight ends in 2023. His 17-game pace from that sample translates to 81 catches for 985 yards and 11 touchdowns. Andrews is one of the few tight ends in the league who profiles as the top target in his offense and consistently pushes for over 100 targets each season. With little competition outside of Zay Flowers for targets in the offense, Andrews is poised for a monster season in 2024 if he can stay healthy.

The Case Against…

Similar to Kelce, Andrews is another elite tight end who should finish near the top of his position if he can stay healthy for a full season. Though he is approaching 30, he remains in the prime of his career and should have plenty of highly productive seasons in store. One potential challenge that could arise is if Zay Flowers takes a major step forward in 2024 and blooms into an elite talent, potentially reducing Andrews’ target share. While this scenario seems improbable, it is at least worth considering given Flowers’ first-round draft capital and promising rookie season.

The addition of Derrick Henry to the Ravens’ offense could also impact Andrews’ opportunities. Henry’s presence might divert some defensive attention, which might help Andrews get open, but he also poses a threat to steal valuable touchdown opportunities in the red zone. The Ravens are projected to be one of the run-heaviest teams in 2024, leveraging Lamar Jackson’s running ability and Henry’s unmatched combination of power and speed. Coupled with a strong defense that could slow down the pace of games, this run-heavy approach might limit the number of targets and scoring chances for pass catchers like Andrews. Assuming he stays healthy, remains the top target in the offense, and continues to be a touchdown threat, Andrews has a clear pathway to finish as the TE1 in 2024. However, given the potential obstacles, achieving this goal might be challenging. 

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

The Case For…

George Kittle often feels a bit unappreciated in the fantasy football world compared to Kelce and Andrews, despite consistently proving himself as an elite asset at the position. With freakish athleticism, great size, and an unmatched motor, Kittle is undeniably one of the most talented and complete tight ends in the league. He led all tight ends with 1,020 receiving yards last season, finishing as the TE5. He also led the position in plays resulting in 20+ yards (18), 30+ yards (eight), 40+ yards (three), 50+ yards (two), and had the biggest play by a tight end in 2023, resulting in the 66-yard touchdown showcased in the clip below. Additionally, he ranked fifth in yards per route run and top 10 in yards after the catch per reception, underscoring his potential for big plays. Kittle truly has all the skills and intangibles to be a prolific fantasy asset at the tight end position every season.

However, Kittle’s inconsistency stems from not being San Francisco’s only elite target, resulting in a mix of week-winning performances and complete disappearing acts. Despite this, he has finished in the top five at his position in five of the last six years, including three seasons as the TE3 or better, and has recorded over 1,000 receiving yards in three seasons. Additionally, he is developing strong chemistry with his young quarterback, Brock Purdy, who is quickly evolving into one of the most efficient passers in the league. Kittle has only achieved double-digit touchdowns once, with six being his next-highest mark. Though he has never finished a season as the overall TE1, Kittle has come close enough to make it plausible if his receiving yards and touchdown totals align in the same season.

The Case Against…

While widely respected as the most complete tight end in the league and possessing the lovable personality of a golden retriever hopped up on Mountain Dew, Kittle often gets overshadowed in one of the league’s most crowded and lethal offenses. The 49ers’ powerhouse offense passed for the fourth-most yards in 2023, averaging 258 passing yards per game. Targets were spread among Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel. Despite this, Kittle’s 90 targets were the second-most on the team in 2023. Even with this integral role, Kittle was tied for ninth in targets among all tight ends with Cole Kmet and Kyle Pitts (gross). This forced him to be extremely efficient, and his big-play potential allowed him to lead the league in receiving yards despite such limited opportunities.

Most Targeted TEs (2023):

If Kittle continues to fall below 100 targets in 2024, it will be hard to see him realistically finishing the season as the overall TE1. In the two seasons when Kittle received 100+ targets (2018 and 2019), he finished as the TE3 and TE2, with 85+ receptions each year. Since 2019, he has been under 100 targets and 75 receptions each season, greatly limiting his fantasy potential. This is underscored by his TE3 finish in 2022 with a career-high 11 touchdowns but only 60 receptions on 86 targets. Kittle is not a consistently significant enough touchdown threat to compensate for this deficiency. If all the key playmakers are healthy and active in San Francisco, and Kittle continues to be average in terms of touchdown production, it would be difficult to imagine him finishing the 2024 season as the overall TE1.

New Kids on the Block:

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions

The Case For…

Now, it is time to present the reigning king of tight ends from last year. Sam LaPorta had a remarkable rookie season, shattering historical expectations and norms for first-year tight ends. LaPorta led the position in total fantasy points (196.3) and tied for the highest average fantasy points per game with Travis Kelce. This marked the first time since 2015 that a player other than Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce topped the fantasy points leaderboard for tight ends. In the final week of the regular season, LaPorta broke Keith Jackson’s 1988 record for most receptions by a rookie tight end, finishing with 86 catches for 889 yards. He also led the position in touchdowns, scoring 10 times while playing all 17 games.

The Five Best Fantasy Seasons by a Rookie Tight End Since the Year 2000 (Total Points):

The Detroit Lions‘ organizational stability is a positive sign for LaPorta’s continued success. Despite a taxing offseason, the return of OC Ben Johnson and quarterback Jared Goff’s significant extension provides a solid foundation. With minimal new additions that could impact his targets, LaPorta remains the clear second option in Detroit’s high-powered offense, behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown, who led him by just 44 targets last season. Although there has been debate about whether LaPorta can live up to his elevated second-round ADP in redraft leagues, there should be little doubt he can finish among the top tight ends in 2024. Entering his sophomore campaign fully acclimated to the offense, LaPorta is set for potentially even greater success. With his record-setting rookie performance and potential for further growth, he has a strong chance to repeat as the overall TE1 in fantasy football.

The Case Against…

Whenever a rookie bursts onto the scene with a standout debut season, skepticism about their ability to replicate that performance is inevitable, especially if much of their fantasy production stemmed from touchdowns. Touchdown production is often considered an unreliable statistic because it is notoriously difficult to replicate and sustain. Over the past decade, every tight end who scored 10 or more touchdowns with fewer than 900 receiving yards saw a decrease in touchdowns by at least three the following year. Although LaPorta narrowly missed this yardage threshold, expecting him to replicate a double-digit touchdown total in 2024 seems ambitious. However, it is also not entirely out of the question given his potential. If his touchdown production does drop, he will need to significantly boost his receptions total and yardage to offset the loss of fantasy points.

Additionally, there is a chance that LaPorta’s target share can decline in the upcoming season. While he is currently the clear second option behind St. Brown, two young and talented playmakers could increase their involvement in the offense in 2024. Jahmyr Gibbs, a versatile running back who excels in the passing game, ranked sixth among all running backs in targets per game with 4.73 as a rookie, suggesting potential for a larger receiving role. Additionally, Jameson Williams has a chance to break out in 2024 despite a rocky start to his career. If Williams begins to command a larger share of opportunities, it could negatively impact LaPorta’s fantasy production. Ultimately, to maintain his status as the overall TE1, LaPorta will need to elevate other aspects of his game if his touchdown production declines as expected.

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals

The Case For…

As mentioned, rookie tight ends rarely make an immediate impact in the NFL, especially one as significant as Sam LaPorta‘s. However, Trey McBride also emerged as a standout in fantasy football in 2023, although it took him nearly a season and a half to get his chance to shine. After spending much of his rookie year and part of the following season behind Zach Ertz, McBride seized his opportunity in Week 6 and never looked back. From that point forward, he ranked third among all tight ends in targets, second in receptions, and third in receiving yards. His impressive 2.03 yards per route run average was second only to Travis Kelce, suggesting a high level of production that could be sustainable.

Despite a slow start, McBride finished the 2023 season as the TE9 in total points, averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game. Unsurprisingly, his performance improved significantly with the return of quarterback Kyler Murray. Over the final 10 games of the season, McBride caught 66 of 85 targets for 655 yards and three touchdowns. Projected over a full 17-game season, this translates to 112 catches for 1,114 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 145 targets. These numbers would have led all tight ends in targets and receiving yards last season. While maintaining this pace into 2024 will be challenging, McBride’s late-season usage highlights his importance to the Cardinals’ offense. With Murray entering the season fully healthy and McBride having already experienced a true breakout, there is ample reason to believe he can elevate his fantasy performance to an elite level and potentially finish as the overall TE1 in 2024.

The Case Against…

While McBride has the potential to elevate his fantasy production to elite status in 2024, he faces some obstacles that could prevent him from finishing at the very top. The most significant challenge is the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. to the offense. Arizona addressed a major need by drafting Harrison Jr. with the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft, as he is widely regarded as one of the best wide receiver prospects of our generation. Given his potential and impressive collegiate production, it is expected that Harrison Jr. could quickly push to become the primary target in the offense. With Hollywood Brown no longer on the team, the other receivers vying for targets include Greg Dortch, Michael Wilson, and Zay Jones. While each of these players can carve out roles, none are likely to surpass McBride in terms of target share or opportunities. Nonetheless, the presence of a top-tier rookie like Harrison Jr. could impact McBride’s target volume and overall production.

Beyond being a potential top target earner, Harrison Jr. also demonstrated a knack for finding the end zone, scoring 14+ touchdowns in consecutive seasons at Ohio State. This aspect of his game could significantly impact McBride’s fantasy ceiling in 2024. During his four years at Colorado State University, McBride never scored more than four touchdowns in a season. This lack of end zone efficiency was particularly evident in his 2021 season, where he recorded 90 receptions for 1,121 yards but managed to score only one touchdown. This trend continued into the NFL, with McBride scoring just three touchdowns last season despite receiving 11 red zone targets.

TE1 Touchdown Totals Since 2017:

McBride’s underwhelming touchdown production could limit his fantasy ceiling unless he makes significant improvements in this area. Since 2017, only one player has finished as the overall TE1 with fewer than eight touchdowns: the great Travis Kelce in 2019, who compensated with nearly 100 receptions and over 1,200 receiving yards. As the tight end landscape has become more competitive, touchdown production has become increasingly critical for achieving top-tier fantasy success. While McBride appears poised for a strong fantasy season in 2024, concerns about his scoring ability could prevent him from reaching the very top of the leaderboard.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills

The Case For…

If you were to combine but weaken Sam LaPorta‘s immediate impact as a rookie with Trey McBride‘s late-season breakout in 2023, you would get a performance akin to Dalton Kincaid‘s rookie year. After a few weeks of acclimating to the offense and gaining Josh Allen‘s trust, Kincaid made a significant impact starting in Week 7, recording 56 receptions for 555 yards and two touchdowns on 72 targets over the final 11 games. Despite initially playing behind Dawson Knox, Kincaid finished among the top 10 tight ends in receptions and yards, achieving seven top-12 finishes. Notably, he and LaPorta were the only rookie tight ends to surpass 100 fantasy points last season.

Trying to mirror the Kansas City offensive scheme, the Buffalo Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid to be the “Travis Kelce” in this offense for Josh Allen.

While he has yet to date Taylor Swift, Kincaid is living up to the hype.

pic.twitter.com/pMaehJHzXy

— Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) November 14, 2023

Looking ahead to 2024, it is easy to imagine that Kincaid’s fantasy potential could be even greater, especially with the departure of Stefon Diggs, who left behind 160 targets. Kincaid appears to be the most capable receiver to absorb a significant portion of these opportunities. While second-round pick Keon Coleman could emerge as the team’s primary target, there are concerns about his readiness for a featured role. Outside of Coleman, Kincaid will compete with Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and a few other wide receivers who are likely to be lower-volume, vertical threats. Despite a potentially underwhelming supporting cast, Josh Allen‘s elite quarterback talent could support a breakout fantasy season for Kincaid. Given the promising start to his career, Kincaid has the potential to take a massive step forward in 2024 and challenge for the overall TE1 spot in fantasy football, provided he can seize the opportunity.

The Case Against…

While Kincaid seems poised for a breakout fantasy season in 2024, finishing as the overall TE1 is a significant challenge for any player entering their second NFL season. Despite his impressive late-season performance, Kincaid only recorded two touchdowns on the season and has yet to surpass 90 receiving yards in a single game. However, he did showcase his potential with four games with 75+ receiving yards, hinting at his ability for big performances when given sufficient volume. The primary concern is whether Kincaid can handle a featured role, as he has not yet been tested with such high usage. If he can become the team’s leading target and increase his touchdown production, a top-three fantasy finish is within reach. However, achieving the overall TE1 spot will require significant growth and development beyond what he has shown so far, making it a formidable task.

As mentioned, the emergence of Keon Coleman could present a challenge for Kincaid’s fantasy ceiling in 2024. Coleman has an intriguing combination of size and freakish athleticism that, paired with Josh Allen‘s arm talent, could translate into a strong fantasy asset if he develops into a capable WR1. However, there are legitimate concerns about Coleman’s immediate transition to the NFL, making his impact uncertain. Additionally, Curtis Samuel is expected to have a valuable role in the offense, potentially cutting into Kincaid’s target share, especially as they both are projected to run routes in the middle of the field. Under OC Joe Brady, the offense could distribute targets among several players, a common approach in his schemes. However, with Diggs’s departure, there will be a significant number of targets available, providing Kincaid an opportunity to secure an extremely prominent role regardless.

While a healthy Dawson Knox may not significantly impact Kincaid’s playing time, he could still compete for red zone targets, potentially limiting Kincaid’s touchdown opportunities. Kincaid, however, profiles as a solid end zone target regardless, as he was in college, which should translate well to the pros. Despite predicting him to finish as the overall TE1 might be a stretch at this stage in his career, he certainly has the potential to deliver a strong fantasy season in 2024. If Kincaid can maximize his projected expanded role in the offense, he could take his fantasy potential to new heights in the upcoming season.

Dark Horses:

Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Case For…

After a five-year hiatus from being a relevant fantasy asset, Evan Engram has experienced a remarkable career resurgence with the Jacksonville Jaguars over the past two seasons. He matched his breakout rookie performance by finishing as the TE6 in 2022 and then surpassed expectations with a career-best season in 2023, finishing as the TE2. Engram led all tight ends with 143 targets and 114 catches last season, amassing a career-high 963 receiving yards. He was a model of consistency, finishing as a top-15 tight end in 13 of the 17 games he played, including two instances where he was the highest-scoring tight end of the week. Despite these accomplishments, Engram has not generated much buzz heading into the 2024 season. However, there is ample reason to believe he could be a dark horse contender for another top finish at the position.

While it may be unlikely for Engram to surpass 140 targets again in 2024, there are reasons to believe he can remain among the league’s top fantasy tight ends for consecutive seasons. Some regression in target volume is expected, but Jacksonville’s notable departures in the receiving corps could pave the way for another featured role for Engram. The team is freeing up over 35% of its vacated targets with the departures of Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones, and Jamal Agnew. To compensate, the Jaguars drafted Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd overall pick and signed Gabe Davis in free agency. Both newcomers are expected to contribute significantly, primarily as vertical threats, which should not heavily impact Engram’s target share.

This situation leaves Engram and Christian Kirk as the primary contenders for a substantial share of the targets, especially if Thomas Jr. requires time to acclimate in his rookie season. Coming off a TE2 finish and seemingly poised for another featured role, Engram has a legitimate shot at finishing near the top of his position once more. If he can increase his touchdown total from his historical average, he might even push for the top spot this year.

The Case Against…

The main obstacle to envisioning Engram as the overall TE1 in 2024 is his relatively low touchdown production. Despite being one of the faster and more versatile tight ends in the league, Engram does not fit the mold of a traditional tight end who frequently scores touchdowns. Since his rookie season, when he scored six touchdowns, Engram has not surpassed four touchdowns in a single season. Last year, he was tied for 14th among tight ends with just 10 red zone targets, and over the past six years, he has averaged only three touchdowns per season. For Engram to have a realistic shot at finishing as the overall TE1, he would need a far higher touchdown total, a challenge given his historical performance in this area.

Additionally, Engram’s career highs in targets and receptions last season are likely more of an outlier than a trend he can sustain. His second-highest target total came in his rookie season with 115 targets, and in 2022 with Jacksonville, he had just under 100 despite playing a full season. You might wonder what caused such a significant increase in targets the following year. This surge can largely be attributed to necessity, particularly because Christian Kirk missed the last six games of the regular season due to injury. During those final six weeks, Engram received 61 targets, accounting for nearly 43% of his season total. While injuries are unpredictable and difficult to forecast, it is reasonable to expect Engram’s target share to decrease in 2024. This is true even if Brian Thomas Jr. fails to have a breakout rookie season, as his development and potential role could still greatly impact Engram’s opportunities. Overall, while Engram had an exceptional season, it is unlikely he will see the same level of volume moving forward.

The final factor that could limit Engram’s fantasy ceiling in 2024 is rather alarming. Despite Engram’s career-high 963 receiving yards last season, he still fell 57 yards short of George Kittle‘s total, while receiving 53 more targets. This difference can largely be attributed to Engram’s low average depth of target, as he tends to excel on shorter routes. In contrast, Kittle often operates further downfield, which translates well for fantasy purposes. While Engram offers consistent weekly production and has the potential for the occasional spike week, his reliance on short passes and low touchdown totals limit his ceiling. As a result, it appears unlikely that Engram will ever finish as the overall TE1 in fantasy football, despite being a highly valuable asset at the position.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

The Case For…

After being drafted fourth overall in 2021, Kyle Pitts had an incredible rookie season, finishing as the TE6 and surpassing 1,000 receiving yards. This impressive debut led many in the fantasy football community to crown him as the top tight end to roster in dynasty leagues. However, the past two seasons have been frustrating for those who invested in Pitts, with him finishing as the TE33 in 2022 and TE14 last season. Despite these setbacks, Pitts has shown flashes of his immense potential, demonstrating elite athleticism, crisp route-running, and impressive speed for his size. Notably, Pitts led all tight ends in air yards last season with 1,029 yards and had the highest aDOT among relevant tight ends at 11.37. Surprisingly, his longest play was only 39 yards, while his teammate Jonnu Smith had two plays exceeding 50 yards. With the departure of HC Arthur Smith and other significant changes, there is hope that the 2024 season will finally unlock Pitts’ full potential.

The most significant offseason addition regarding Pitts’ fantasy outlook is veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. After a series of underwhelming quarterbacks early in his career, Pitts will now benefit from Cousins’ experience and proven ability to support elite fantasy production from his top assets. Despite concerns about Cousins’ age and his recent recovery from a major injury, the expectations for this offense are sky-high. With Drake London and Bijan Robinson also competing for targets, Pitts should be a central figure in the offensive game plan most weeks. Most recently, Cousins has supported elite fantasy seasons for both Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson with the Minnesota Vikings. Fantasy managers are hopeful that he can replicate this success in Atlanta, with Kyle Pitts and Drake London mirroring the roles of the aforementioned superstars. 

Atlanta also hired HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson, who are expected to implement a system reminiscent of the fantasy-friendly offense used by the Los Angeles Rams. This has generated excitement about the potential impact of this system on Atlanta’s young offensive trio. Pitts now has the pieces in place to fulfill his immense potential, but he must seize the moment and prove himself as the elite talent many believe him to be. With a new coaching staff and a reliable quarterback, this season could mark a turning point for the Atlanta Falcons. Given his rookie year performance and the positive developments this offseason, there is a strong case for a major resurgence from Pitts in 2024. If he can establish a strong connection with Cousins and adapt to the new system, Pitts has a legitimate shot to finish as one of the top fantasy scorers at the tight end position this season.

The Case Against…

Rooting for a comeback season for Kyle Pitts… What could go wrong? Although he is only 23 and entering his fourth NFL season, there is still a possibility that Pitts might not become the superstar tight end everyone expected after his rookie year. We have seen many first-round talents show early promise but never develop into elite fantasy assets. Pitts has had plausible excuses, such as poor quarterback play, inadequate coaching, and lingering injuries, which have helped maintain his reputation. However, time is running out. If he fails to capitalize on the positive changes Atlanta made this offseason to support his fantasy production, he may never emerge as a consistently elite asset at the position.

While some metrics suggest room for growth, there are concerning stats from last season as well. For instance, despite playing only 10 games, Mark Andrews outscored Pitts by 2.1 fantasy points. Pitts played in every game and only finished as the TE14 in total points. Additionally, he scored just three touchdowns, fewer than Jimmy Graham, who had only six catches all year. Even with better quarterback play in 2024, if Pitts cannot improve his touchdown production, the idea of him finishing as the overall TE1 in fantasy football seems far-fetched. With that said, his touchdown numbers have improved each season — from one in 2021, to two in 2022, and three in 2023 — but these incremental increases do not inspire confidence that he will become a prolific scorer anytime soon. Here’s to hoping he can make it four in 2024!

Additionally, Pitts will be in a brand new system, playing with a 36-year-old quarterback recovering from a severe injury. These factors suggest that the optimism surrounding Atlanta’s 2024 season could quickly evaporate, turning into a major disappointment. Given these concerns, predicting that Pitts will finish as the top tight end in fantasy football next season feels overly ambitious, even if he does have a resurgent year and gets his career back on track.

Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys

The Case For…

It is officially time to give Jake Ferguson the recognition he deserves. Just as it took time for people to realize Dalton Schultz could be a top fantasy asset with the Dallas Cowboys, Ferguson has shown enough to raise our expectations. In his second NFL season, Ferguson experienced a true breakout, turning 102 targets into 71 receptions for 761 receiving yards and five touchdowns, finishing as the TE8. Dak Prescott has a history of targeting tight ends at a high rate, and the Cowboys’ offense is one of the most pass-friendly systems for the position. While Ferguson’s five touchdowns from last season may not seem remarkable, there is more to the story. He led all tight ends with 25 red zone targets. Taking a look at all players in the NFL, this mark tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Calvin Ridley, and Tyreek Hill, and trailed only Davante Adams (29) and CeeDee Lamb (31). Although it is somewhat notable that a teammate led the league in this category and Ferguson did not capitalize on more opportunities, it is extremely encouraging that he received such an elite volume of highly valuable targets.

2023 TE Red Zone Target Leaders:

After an impressive debut as the team’s starter, there is plenty of reason to believe Ferguson can be even better in his third NFL season. Besides room for growth in the touchdown department, he may be leaned on even more heavily in 2024, which could significantly increase his target share. While CeeDee Lamb will continue to be the primary target, the departure of Michael Gallup leaves behind 9% of the team’s opportunities from last year. Apart from Lamb and Ferguson, veteran Brandin Cooks is the only proven option in the receiving game, opening the door for Ferguson to become the second target in the offense. Given the current depth chart, it is hard to imagine him being anything less than third in the pecking order most weeks. Additionally, with Tony Pollard‘s departure, the run game is expected to be less threatening, featuring Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, and Royce Freeman. This may lead to a higher passing volume, even with an elite defense that should keep them competitive.

Although Ferguson is not yet considered an elite fantasy asset, there is ample reason to believe he can take a significant leap in 2024 and elevate his game. If his target share increases and he becomes more efficient in the red zone, there is a realistic chance he could finish as a top tight end in fantasy scoring. While finishing as the overall TE1 might be unrealistic, his elite red zone usage, above-average quarterback play, and projected increased role in the offense suggest he could reach new heights if everything goes right.

The Case Against…

Even though I emphasized the need to put more respect on Jake Ferguson‘s name, it is equally important to have realistic expectations. Unlike some elite tight ends, Ferguson was not a top prospect and he has certain limitations. He is not a freak athlete like some others on this list, nor does he possess the same level of skill. His production is largely supported by the system and quarterback he plays with, and it is fair to say that other unheralded players in the league could also excel in his situation. This is not to take anything away from Ferguson; we have seen numerous tight ends thrive with Dak Prescott as their quarterback. Nevertheless, Ferguson is in an excellent position, and it is up to him to seize the opportunity and maximize his potential.

Despite the current lack of competition for targets in the Cowboys’ offense, it is unlikely that Ferguson will repeat as the leader in red zone targets among tight ends. Even with potential regression in this area, targets are meaningless if they are not converted into touchdowns. If Ferguson remains inefficient at capitalizing on his opportunities in 2024, it could significantly limit his fantasy production. Additionally, the Cowboys drafted Luke Schoonmaker last year, who many expected to become the team’s starting tight end. While Ferguson likely has a strong hold on the starting role, Schoonmaker could push for more snaps and opportunities in his second year. Ultimately, Ferguson seems like a safe bet to finish as a top-10 tight end in 2024. While there are reasons to believe he could elevate his game, it is unclear if he has the potential to reach those heights, even with the opportunity available. Given these uncertainties, assuming he can finish as the overall TE1 this upcoming season feels like a stretch.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

The Case For…

If we focus solely on the statistics from Week 7 onward, David Njoku would be crowned the best tight end in fantasy football last season. During that stretch, Njoku was the TE1, averaging 9.2 targets per game and thriving with Joe Flacco at quarterback. He finished as a TE1 in nine of the last 10 games, leading several fantasy teams to securing championships. Njoku possesses a rare combination of size, speed, and elite athleticism, traits highly coveted in fantasy tight ends. Notably, his final four games were especially prolific, accounting for 42% of his total yardage and four of his six touchdowns, marking the fifth-best final four-game stretch for any fantasy tight end in the last decade. His worst fantasy finish in that span was TE3. 

Despite his immense potential, Njoku has yet to fully capitalize on it, having had a modest career since being drafted in 2017 and never consistently proving to be a reliable fantasy asset. However, last season, he set career highs across the board, catching 81 passes for 882 yards and six touchdowns on 123 targets. Njoku’s elite speed and athleticism make him exceptionally dangerous with the ball in his hands, highlighted by his leading all tight ends in yards after the catch in 2023 with 599. Only a small handful of elite players in the league surpassed him in this category, including CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill. Additionally, Njoku ranked third in red zone targets among tight ends last season, helping him tie for the second-highest touchdown total at the position.

Looking ahead to 2024, Njoku should have plenty of opportunities, especially with only Amari Cooper and the newly acquired Jerry Jeudy as major competition for targets. If Njoku can maintain a high target share and capitalize on his red zone opportunities, he could carry the momentum from the end of last season into 2024 and potentially finish as the top tight end in fantasy football.

The Case Against…

Much like how the name “Voldemort” is avoided in “Harry Potter,” I tried to sidestep mentioning Deshaun Watson while making the case for Njoku as the potential overall TE1 in 2024. However, as we delve into the potential pitfalls that can arise this season, we must address the elephant in the room. Most of Njoku’s production last season occurred when another quarterback, notably Joe Flacco, was under center instead of Watson. Since joining the Cleveland Browns, Watson has been a shadow of his former self, and it is uncertain whether he can elevate his play to support an elite fantasy season for Njoku and the other Cleveland pass catchers.

Even if Watson improves in 2024, it is unlikely he will develop the same chemistry with Njoku that Flacco did. Watson did show some rapport with Amari Cooper last year, as Cooper was the first read on 29% of Cleveland’s dropbacks. Therefore, it seems highly unlikely Njoku will surpass Cooper in target share in 2024. The addition of Jerry Jeudy also poses a potential challenge for Njoku. Although Jeudy has yet to live up to his potential, he remains an above-average wide receiver who will demand opportunities in the offense. Over his last two seasons with the Denver Broncos, Jeudy has averaged over 90 targets per season. 

Despite his impressive season, Njoku led all tight ends in drops last year with 11, the only player at the position to reach double digits in this category. While drops are often an overblown statistic and can fluctuate from season to season, Njoku will need to improve in this area, especially if his opportunities decrease. A significant portion of Njoku’s success down the stretch of the season was due to a high volume of targets and a strong connection with Flacco. If quarterback play declines and Njoku sees fewer targets in 2024, it will be difficult to envision him finishing the season as the overall TE1.

*Bonus Long Shot: Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

While it is highly unlikely that Brock Bowers will finish the 2024 season as the overall TE1, he at least deserves a mention at the end of this lengthy discussion. After all, Bowers may very well be the greatest tight end prospect ever. Additionally, if he were joining a different team, he might be featured as more than just a “bonus long shot.” However, Bowers is set to start his career with either Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew at quarterback, which could limit his potential production significantly. Despite being a strong believer in Bowers’ talent and potential, it is challenging to envision him reaching the TE1 spot in his rookie year within this offense. That said, Sam LaPorta surprised everyone with an outstanding rookie season last year, so it is not entirely out of the question for a generational prospect to overcome the odds and finish as the top player at his position in his debut season.