Best Sports Picks MLB Phillies Uncategorized

The Phillies Need to Fix A Lot; but There is One Glaring Priority – and It’s Not the Lineup or Bullpen

August 14, 2024
financialfreedomllc20

Baseball is back in South Philly tonight. Considering how things have gone for the Phillies for the past few weeks, it might be the first time all summer that there won’t be a buzz leading up to first pitch. That’s because the city has gone into full panic mode because of the Phillies have free fallen from the team with the best record in baseball to the team with the fourth-best record in the sport.

The boat-burning can be found all over social media, on local sports talk radio and is exacerbated on Post-Game Live where Michael Barkann declared after Sunday’s loss, that he wasn’t sure if the Phillies were going to win the division.

At the time they had the largest lead of any team in any division in baseball. But the concern is understandable.

They’ve lost 15-of-22 since the All-Star Break. They are 24-30 since losing the second game of the London Series in June. The latter of which is a date that the post-game telecast seems to have latched on to with almost every episode.

So, I decided to look back to that date and see what I found, to determine what, if anything, can be an identifier as to what has befallen the Phillies over the course of the past 54 games, and see if any of it should be alarming going forward, as the team tries to get itself right in time for a Red October that everyone in the organization and in the city have been jonesing for since last October ended surprisingly and abruptly.

The first thing I needed to do was debunk a lot of the misleading tropes that have been festering in the Phillies baseball ecosystem.

Up first is that the lineup all of the sudden stinks.

See? I wasn’t kidding. But wait, there’s more:

It’s understandable where this has come from because there have been individual stretches in this long-term haze that the Phillies have been in that, when taken collectively, makes one believe that the whole group is full of rotten apples.

For example, Bryce Harper had the worst 10-game stretch of his career at the plate. Trea Turner is in it right now, with an OPS of .370 over his last 15 games. Even Kyle Schwarber, who has been the Phillies second half MVP so far this season, has had an 0-for-15 stretch and two separate 0-for-10 spans.

Couple that with Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh having overall down seasons (even when things were rosy) and J.T. Realmuto struggling to get going after missing six weeks with a knee injury, and you can see why things may have gone in fits and starts:

Keep in mind, that during this 54-game stretch in which the Phillies have been six games under .500 they also had all of the following players miss extended time with injuries:

  • Trea Turner (hamstring)
  • J.T. Realmuto (knee)
  • Brandon Marsh (hamstring)
  • Kyle Schwarber (groin)
  • Bryce Harper (hamstring)
  • Austin Hays (hamstring)

This doesn’t include pitchers who have also been injured, so while there has been inconsistency in production there has also been great inconsistency with availability.

That’s not an excuse for being 24-30, but it should be reason enough to understand why sustaining the pace of a super-fast, 45-19 start was unrealistic.

And yet, what if I told you, that this inconsistent offense, that this group who has been supposedly so shoddy during these past two months, has actually been more productive than it was when they were 45-19?

You won’t believe me, I know. So, I brought stats:

Phillies offense the first 64 games:

.254/.329/.412; .740 OPS; 94 2B, 13 3B, 74 HR, 312 RBI

Phillies offense the last 54 games:

.257/.324/.431; .755 OPS; 102 2B, 6 3B, 71 HR, 235 RBI

Crazy, right?

The big disparity is in RBI. That’s evidence that the team hasn’t hit well situationally during this stretch, but it would be wrong to say the offense never hits well with runners in scoring position, because for two months, it did it better than every National League team and were second-best in baseball (.290).

They still rank in the top 10 in the sport batting with runners in scoring position (.264) but there is no doubt that they’ve scuffled in this regard in the last 54 games (.232), ranking 25th in the sport in that time.

So, it’s definitely a cyclical stat. You aren’t suddenly great at doing something you are not good at, just like you aren’t suddenly terrible at something you usually are superior at doing.

Where the Phillies sit now for the season is likely their norm when it comes to situational hitting. It’s not the best in the league, but it’s still among the top third.

So, yes, complain if you must about individual performances, and counter the numbers by pointing out that Schwarber (.293/.434/.641; 1.075 OPS) has carried the offense on his shoulders, but recognize that this isn’t the big issue for the Phillies right now.

The other seemingly regular bitch about the Phillies is the bullpen is toast:

Again, there are guys who currently are shaking your confidence, specifically Jose Alvarado. He’s not been good for the past two months, with a 6.64 ERA and a 1.525 WHIP. His stuff is still there. He’s breaking 100mph on the gun and is still striking out his share of guys, but his command isn’t there, and he’s missing some pitches badly.

The fact that he’s not wearing down is a plus – usually when a pitcher goes bad with command or is simply missing spots, it’s something mechanical and not physical. He can still figure it out, but he’s the one guy in the bullpen who is still here who hasn’t shown an ability to do that yet.

And while Orion Kerkering has also struggled some, he’s been a little bit of a victim of bad luck or shoddy defense behind him. Still, the Phillies understand that they have to be careful with him because his fastball velocity is down a tick. Before Tuesday’s game, manager Rob Thomson said they’ve been “grinding him,” which is a lot for a rookie reliever, and that they want to build in more off days for him to keep him fresh for the postseason.

As for the rest of the pen, it’s actually better than you think.

Yeah, the bullpen has a 5.00 ERA since London with a 1.319 WHIP – which are ugly numbers. But those include stats from four pitchers no longer with the team and Garrett Stubbs throwing 45 MPH cookies in late-game blow outs.

Take out Michael Mercado, Seranthony Dominguez, Gregory Soto and Yunior Marte (optioned to Triple-A on Tuesday) and suddenly the numbers are more respectable (4.08 ERA, 1.194 WHIP). And that’s including Alvardo’s 20 1/3 bad innings and 20 innings from Kerkering in which he’s allowed 30 baserunners.

But the rest?

  • Jeff Hoffman – 3.38 ERA; 1.078 WHIP
  • Matt Strahm – 4.05 ERA; 0.900 WHIP
  • Carlos Estevez – 0.00 ERA; 0.881 WHIP
  • Tanner Banks – 2.84 ERA; 0.632 WHIP
  • Jose Ruiz – 5.49 ERA; 1.36 WHIP

Ruiz isn’t a guy that’s going to pitch in the postseason, and he’s kind of holding down the fort as the “long” man right now, but that spot will likely belong to Spencer Turnbull (2.57 ERA as a reliever since June 9) for the postseason.

And the only reason the other guys’ ERAs are where they are is an influx of home runs allowed. And while that’s not something to just be shrugged aside, it’s also possibly something that comes from a small sample.

The bullpen has allowed 32 homers in 182 innings since London. But 12 of them were from that aforementioned group of guys who won’t pitch again this year (probably) for the Phillies. Of the guys who are still here or will likely pitch in the postseason, they’ve allowed 20 in 132 1/3 innings, and if you remove Ruiz it’s 15 in 111 innings, which is pretty standard.

Based on the WHIPs you see above, you have a right to be concerned about Alvarado and a little about Kerkering, but the rest are still pretty darn good and should exude confidence when called upon.

So, while there have been some hiccups, and Alvarado is walking around with a big ol’ red flag stapled to his jersey, the bullpen is still pretty darn good.

I know what you’re thinking at this point, how in the heck can I be making all these excuses for a team that has shown so many nicks in their facade?

It’s a fair point. But now it’s time to get down to the nitty gritty. To the nuts and bolts. To the one thing that will make or break the Phillies chances in the postseason.

Starting Pitching.

This is where there has been the greatest concern. So much so, that Phillies president Dave Dombrowski went right down to the wire trying to trade for Chicago White Sox starter Garrett Crochet.

Obviously, a deal never materialized, not for the Phillies nor anyone else, as Crochet is still in Chicago, but there was enough that Dombrowski was seeing to make him concerned the Phillies might not have enough depth in the rotation.

It’s crazy to think that the Phillies have three All-Star starting pitchers, and a fourth in Aaron Nola who had a compelling case to be an All-Star as well based on his first half numbers, and that this group is, for one reason or another, been the biggest problem with the team falling off in the way that it has.

And it’s not just about ERAs and WHIPs, all of which have been worse since June 9, but it’s also about the fewer innings they are pitching after pitching deep in what seemed like every start in the first two months.

Zack Wheeler has still been good, although not as good as the first half. Ranger Suarez fell off precipitously, and then ended up on the injured list. Cristopher Sanchez actually improved in some areas, but took a step back in others leading to harder contact against him and a higher ERA.

And then there’s Nola who has looked more like the 2023 version of himself lately than the guy who looked like the reincarnation of the 2018 version when he was a Cy Young finalist:

Here are their stats pre-London and post-London:

Zack Wheeler

  • First 64 games – 13 starts, 2.23 ERA, 0.967 WHIP, 80 2/3 innings (6.2 IP/9)
  • Last 54 games – 10 starts, 3.48 ERA, 1.048 WHIP, 62 innings (6,2 IP/9)

Aaron Nola

  • First 64 games – 13 starts, 2.77 ERA, 0.872 WHIP, 84 1/3 innings (6.5 IP/9)
  • Last 54 games – 11 starts, 4.71 ERA, 1.381 WHIP, 63 innings (5.7 IP/9)

Ranger Suarez

  • First 64 games – 13 starts, 1.81 ERA, 0.854 WHIP, 79 2/3 innings (6.1 IP/9)
  • Last 54 games – 7 starts, 4.99 ERA, 1.487 WHIP, 39 2/3 innings (5.7 IP/9)

Cristopher Sanchez

  • First 64 games – 12 starts, 2.71 ERA, 1.342 WHIP, 66 1/3 innings (5.5 IP/9)
  • Last 54 games – 11 starts, 4.57 ERA, 1.308 WHI_, 65 innings (5.9 IP/9)

Nola and Suarez have the biggest disparity, and Suarez has been on the injured list for almost a month with back spasms. Add in Taijuan Walker being injured for most of the year (he’s back Tuesday night) and the Phillies have had to rely on their depth for a bunch of starts.

Tyler Phillips has been solid for them (save one start in Seattle where he was torched) and Kolby Allard did better than expected in his outings. But the Phillies have needed Wheeler, Nola, and Sanchez to be the first half version of themselves for the past two months, and they mostly haven’t.

Wheeler had two terrible starts – one against Baltimore and one against the Yankees. Nola has been getting hit with a lot more regularity and not just the home runs, which he has be prone to allow. He’s giving up other hits and walks, especially his last few starts, and as a result, has had to pitch with a lot of traffic on the bases, putting himself into higher leverage spots more frequently, and trying to pitch his way out of it.

His drop off in innings of .8 IP/9 is a lot when you think about it. It’s nine extra innings the bullpen has had to be used than normal. Considering the bullpen was already getting taxed by having to come in for Phillips (save his memorable complete game shutout) and the Phillies needing to use an opener for two of Allard’s appearances, and all of the sudden, you see why the bullpen is seeming a little more leaky.

If you take the entire pitching staff in total, they’re giving up 1.2 baserunners more per game, and 1.1 more homers per game. That has translated to the difference in ERA from 2.90 as a staff in the first 64 games to 4.71 in the last 54 games.

Therein lies the difference for this Phillies club, more than anything else.

I never thought I would type the following sentence, but the Phillies could really use Walker right about now. They wanted him to pitch Sunday in Arizona to give Sanchez an extra couple days off, but rain in the East, where Walker was on a rehab assignment, left the Phillies with no choice but to start Sanchez – and he promptly had his worst start of the season.

They will probably go to a six-man rotation for a little bit once Suarez returns and get Sanchez an extra day or two in there. Suarez threw a combo bullpen/live batting practice Tuesday of roughly 60 pitches. Thomson said he looked good. The plan is for him to do another one of those on Sunday – either in Philadelphia, or in Lehigh Valley, and then possibly return to the big club in time for the series in Kansas City a week from Friday.

Resetting the starting rotation and getting them back to being who they’ve proven they can be, has to be priority No. 1 for the Phillies over the next six weeks to ensure they aren’t playing like the last six weeks once we reach October.

Yes, Stott, Marsh, Realmuto, and Turner need to be better. Yes, Alvarado and Kerkering have to figure it out. But if you don’t have Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, and Sanchez doing what they do best then the alarm bells should be ringing.

But if you get them back to their usual standard then there can still be a big shiny trophy waiting at the end, regardless of how those other guys fare the rest of the way.

 

The post The Phillies Need to Fix A Lot; but There is One Glaring Priority – and It’s Not the Lineup or Bullpen appeared first on Crossing Broad.

https://www.crossingbroad.com/2024/08/the-phillies-need-to-fix-a-lot-but-there-is-one-glaring-priority-and-its-not-the-lineup-or-bullpen.html

#fantasyfootball #Sports #Betting #sportsbetting #sportsbettingadvice #freepick #freepicks #sportsbettingtips #handicapping #predictions #sportspredictions #NFL #esports #espn #NBA #NHL #sportsprediction #ncaa #mlb #WNBA #prediction #nhl #nhlplayoffs #nhlpicks #nbapicks #NBAPlayoffs #NFLPlayoffs #espnsports #bettingsports #bettingtips #bettingonline #bettingexpert #basketball #football #soccer #hockey #sportspicks #ncaabasketball #foxsports #cbssports #soccerpredictions #sportingbet