The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: Drake London

Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.

A new era has arrived in Atlanta. While the good old days of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones may be over, a new sensational duo has the opportunity to take over fantasy football with the arrival of Kirk Cousins. Cousins, alongside new coaches and coordinators, looks to lead the Falcons’ young receiving core into receiving numbers more reminiscent of their college years. Though Drake London‘s fantasy production has been poor in his first two seasons, the changes to his situation have boosted his value into the second round of redraft leagues. Will he and the Falcons offense deliver on their high expectations and rise into fantasy football stardom? Let’s jump in.

Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.

2023 Season Recap

Drake London was the first-drafted wide receiver of the 2022 class, selected eighth overall by the Atlanta Falcons. In the two years since he was drafted, he still hasn’t caught passes at the quality of those from his collegiate quarterback and former USC teammate, Caleb Williams.

Start your July off right.

All 110 of Drake London’s 2023 targets pic.twitter.com/qUOSKv99WG

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) July 1, 2024

To make things worse, former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith implemented a very challenging offense for incoming receivers.

In Smith’s time as head coach of the Falcons, Atlanta ran the ball at the fifth-highest rate. This is not a very welcoming offense for a young wide receiver to walk into. While a run-first offense was a key part of Smith’s coaching philosophy, it was also their only option due to their lack of quarterback talent.

As a Falcon, Drake London has caught passes primarily from Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota, and Taylor Heinicke, all of whom are backups heading into 2024 (for good reason).

Though his WR36 and WR39 finishes in half-PPR scoring may deter the foolish from drafting him at his very expensive 2024 price (I’m talking to you, Mike), there have been many bright spots in his young career.

Below are Drake London’s basic statistics from his first two seasons in the NFL.

Unfortunately, a consequence of poor coaching and inconsistent quarterbacking is a lack of eye-popping statistics. The more advanced stats, however, show consistency in target share (Yards/RR) and slight improvements in efficiency (Yards/Rec and aDOT). While it would be a lot nicer to see greater improvements in these categories, not a lot changed in the level of coaching and quarterback play from 2022 to 2023.

The Path for 2024

If you’ve been living under a rock, you may be asking yourself questions like, ‘What’s going to be different this year?’ or ‘Why am I living under a rock?’ Well, to answer one of these questions, the Atlanta Falcons made one of the biggest acquisitions this offseason, adding Kirk Cousins to their star-studded set of offensive weapons. Cousins joins the Falcons as a proven quarterback talent with a strong history of supporting former fantasy WR1s such as Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson.

Kirk -> Drake pic.twitter.com/UYdOT2i8Ge

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) May 13, 2024

In addition to adding Kirk Cousins, the Falcons cleaned house in terms of their coaching staff, firing Arthur Smith & Co. The team’s newly hired head coach, Raheem Morris, is bringing Zac Robinson along with him from the Los Angeles Rams to call plays. In recent years under Sean McVay, the Rams have based their offense around the high-powered passing attack of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua. I expect Zac Robinson to implement a similar philosophy in Atlanta, especially due to the shiny, new offensive weapons at his disposal.

After the big additions to the quarterback and play-caller positions, Drake London (and all Falcons receivers, for that matter) were still viewed as risky due to Kirk Cousins‘ recent injury. We didn’t have to wait long on draft night for the Falcons to put an end to that problem when they selected Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick. Though the fourth quarterback off the board, Michael Penix is the most NFL-ready of the 2024 class thanks to his longer tenure in college, giving us a larger sample size of his quarterbacking ability. Should the soon-to-be 36-year-old Kirk Cousins go down once again, fantasy managers should know there won’t be a major decrease in the level of play behind center.

Michael Penix Jr. passed for 473 yards and 4 touchdowns against Michigan State. pic.twitter.com/dvPxpmtAT6

— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) May 10, 2024

The situation has improved drastically this offseason; let’s take a look into why Drake London will deliver on his end of the bargain.

The Prospect

As mentioned before, Drake London was the first wide receiver off the board in a very talented class. In the world of analyzing rookie wide receiver talent, two statistics have proven to be good indicators of elite talent: collegiate yards-per-route-run (YPRR) and collegiate breakout age. Paired with high draft capital, we’re able to find the true difference-makers at the position. The graph below shows the 2022 wide receiver class’ YPRR, breakout age, and draft pick.

Drake London finds himself in a world of his own at the top-right of the graph. He will enter 2024 as a recently turned 23-year-old, and I still view him as a young, elite, and untapped talent.

Target Share

Not a lot has changed in Atlanta in terms of the team’s top pass catchers. The departures of tight end Jonnu Smith and wide receivers Van Jefferson and Scotty Miller leave a total of 114 vacated targets. I’d expect Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore, acquired via free agency and trade, respectively, to fill these targets without biting into London’s share of the pie too much, if at all.

London’s already strong 23.3% target share will likely stay the same or even increase in 2024 due to the lack of commitment from the Falcons to add another top option.

Receptions & Catch Rate

Through his first two years in the league, Drake London only caught 62.4% of his 226 targets – this is less than ideal. London’s primary quarterback last year, Desmond Ridder, had a 66.4% completion percentage with a -1.3% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) per RBSDM. Of 30 quarterbacks with 320+ plays last year, Ridder finished 22nd and 21st in these metrics. In the same metrics, Kirk Cousins finished fourth and fifth.

Because the quality of targets will become much better, it can be expected that Drake London’s catch rate will soar.

Yards & aDOT

London isn’t a very big threat after the catch due to his large frame, which can cap his upside on long touchdowns more than a guy like Ja’Marr Chase, whose speed gives him the ability to turn a 10-yard slant into a 60-yard touchdown.

An aDOT of 11.7 in 2023 aligns well with the idea that Drake London is a downfield threat. Kirk Cousins’ number one target in Minnesota, Justin Jefferson, had an aDOT of 13.5 in 2023. Cousins can certainly sling the ball, but he’s also a lot more accurate in doing so than the quarterbacks Drake London has caught passes from in the last two years.

Touchdown Upside

Touchdowns are a rarity for Drake London, who only caught two last year (six in his career). The Falcons’ offense will be in the red zone a lot more next year, which leads me to believe he will positively regress in the touchdown category. At a staggering 6’4″, 214 lbs., London has the ability to make incredible leaps and catches, sometimes over the league’s biggest defenders.

“Such a glamorous catch!” @DrakeLondon_

: #TBvsATL on CBS
: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8SAQa pic.twitter.com/EwHKeufdHK

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023

Kirk Cousins will feed him many more opportunities to show off his large frame in the red zone.

Conclusion

After two years in a poorly fitting offensive system with less-than-ideal quarterback talent, everything will change in 2024 for Drake London. His ceiling will skyrocket with the addition of Kirk Cousins. At the same time, his floor also heavily increases thanks to the addition of Michael Penix Jr.

The Ballers have London ranked as their consensus WR17 at the time of this article’s publishing (Andy – 17, Jason – 9, and Mike – 25). This is a bit lower than the public’s consensus, which lies closer to WR10-14. Not only will I project London to be a WR1, but I’ll be more ambitious and put him down as a top-eight receiver with top-four upside. Thanks to the changes around him in Atlanta and a potential third-year breakout, Drake London has a clear path to being a WR1 in fantasy football.