The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: DJ Moore

Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.

Last season DJ Moore finished as a top-12 WR for the first time in his career. He had some good, fantasy-relevant seasons in Carolina, but once he got out of there, he finally achieved a WR1 finish as a Chicago Bear. Now he is being drafted as the WR31 and Andy, Mike, and Jason have optimistically ranked him 11 spots higher, but still outside of WR1 territory. 

It makes sense to be hesitant about DJ Moore’s fantasy outlook. Too many things have changed in Chicago and it isn’t easy to assess how they will turn out. The Bears got rid of Justin Fields and drafted Caleb Williams as their most recent attempt at a franchise QB. They also added some important target competition for Moore: rookie WR Rome Odunze and seasoned veteran Keenan Allen, who has already helped a rookie QB (Justin Herbert) break some important rookie records.

Will DJ Moore be able to maintain enough volume to finish among the top 12 WRs again? Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.

2023 Season Recap

2023 was a great year for DJ Moore. He eclipsed the 1,300-yard mark for the first time and scored nine total touchdowns. Even though he didn’t have as many targets per game as he averaged in Carolina, he finished as the WR6 by constantly making big plays, which even helped Justin Fields’ numbers look good at times. 

Even though he finished as the WR6 in total yards, his weekly consistency wasn’t great. He only finished among the top 24 35.3% of the time. His boom weeks saved his fantasy finish, but his bust games destroyed many fantasy managers’ hopes and dreams.

He finished outside of the top 36 in seven weeks and he only touched WR1 territory six times. But four of those were top-six finishes, including an amazing 45 fantasy point game against the Commanders. His season was a wild ride, mainly because the team was a disaster. But 2024 should look very different.

The Path for 2024

Things can go DJ Moore’s way this season. We already know he can finish as a WR1. We know he can score a lot of fantasy points in the right game script. There’s no doubt he is a very good wide receiver. He just hasn’t played in an ideal environment for him to bloom into consistent fantasy greatness. Maybe this is the year. Let’s take a look at his numbers and evaluate his possible range of outcomes:

Routes

As our editor-in-chief Kyle Borgognoni said in this year’s Path to a WR1 Series Primer article, routes-based metrics can give us a very good context about a wide receiver because they go one step further into opportunity. Yes, a QB has to throw the ball at a WR for him to get a reception, but to earn that opportunity the player has to be running a route on the field. 

Last season, DJ Moore not only played in every game, he ran a route on 100% of the team’s passing plays. This is indicative of how Matt Eberflus depends on him. He ran 582 routes, which was the 11th most in the NFL, and he was targeted 23.4% of the times he ran a route. In his primer article, Kyle also highlighted that since 2006, a wide receiver must at least have a 20% TPRR if he wants to finish as a WR2 or better.

We always say this: targets are an earned stat. And even with the new competition in the WR room, DJ Moore is great at earning targets. That won’t change.

Target Share

DJ Moore’s target total wasn’t as high as his fantasy finish. He had 136 targets, which made him tie at 15th with Calvin Ridley and Mike Evans, even though he had way more yards than them.

136 targets might not be an elite, top-tier stat, but they still amounted to 28.9% of the team’s targets. Most WR1s in the past few years were above the 20% threshold. Being this close to 30% is usually a sign of an almost guaranteed WR1 finish. But we need to temper expectations in this case, because the actual volume wasn’t that high. The Chicago Bears were second to last in total targets.

Besides, DJ Moore’s target share will be threatened by the arrival of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. Darnell Mooney left only 61 vacant targets and there are a few more to claim from bottom-of-the-depth-chart players like Tyler Scott. But Caleb Williams opens the door to a very different offensive scheme. The Bears are planning according to his skillset and surrounding him with playmakers. The team’s total pass attempts should increase considerably this year to feed all these mouths.

Receptions & Catch Rate

Now let’s talk about Moore’s receptions. He finished in WR1 territory (12th) with 96 receptions. He averaged 14.2 yards per reception and tied with Puka Nacua, Nico Collins, and Justin Jefferson as the WR4 in 20+ yards receptions. DJ Moore’s speed and deep-threat ability are two skills that might work beautifully with Caleb Williams throwing him the ball.

His 70.5% catch rate was pretty decent. As Kyle said in the primer, we can’t rely on this stat too much because it’s not very sticky, especially with a change of quarterback. But in this case, it’s worth mentioning because it was a career-high for DJ Moore. In the three previous years, he averaged a 58% catch rate. How will the needle move with Caleb Williams? Well, let’s start with the fact that Justin Fields’ target quality was not great. He had a horrible 5.9 accuracy rating (32nd among all QBs). If we take his bad throws out of the equation and consider only the targets that were deemed catchable (76.5%), DJ Moore’s true catch rate is 92.3%. Not bad at all.

Next time someone tells you they’re concerned about Caleb Williams being a rookie, remind him that Justin Fields was among the worst QBs last season in target accuracy. Even as a rookie, Caleb Williams’ accuracy is very promising for DJ Moore’s outlook.

Yards & aDOT

DJ Moore’s great fantasy finish was boosted by his ability to create his own opportunities to get more yards by running deep routes. He was the WR5 in deep targets and claimed a 38.9% share of the team’s air yards.

His aDOT wasn’t as amazing. He averaged only 10.9 yards per target, but he more than compensated for it by amassing 539 yards after the catch, the eighth most among all WRs. That’s how he managed to make Justin Fields’ passing stats look so good sometimes, by fighting for more yards. He was the WR9 in yards per target and the WR5 in yards per team pass attempt. These numbers will most likely move with all the changes in Chicago, but Caleb Williams’ rookie season would benefit a lot from targeting a YAC monster like DJ Moore.

Touchdowns

Last season, DJ Moore didn’t get many red zone looks. He only had 12, which in a vacuum seems way out of WR1 or WR2 territory, but the problem was that their offense didn’t get to the red zone that often. They only had 47 pass attempts inside the 20-yard line.

However, DJ Moore managed to be the WR7 in receiving touchdowns with eight visits to the paydirt. Touchdowns are never a sticky stat but there’s room to grow here in an offense that should be able to move the ball better in 2024. This is where the addition of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze plays in DJ Moore’s favor in my opinion. More playmakers on the field mean less red zone coverage for him.

Conclusion

The Bears should behave as a whole different team this year. They have a plan, and if they stick to it, total volume should increase, and that’s good news for DJ Moore. Yes, there’s a rookie QB in town and yes, there are many new mouths to feed. But there are enough reasons to believe that DJ Moore will emerge as the team’s alpha WR.

Keenan Allen is one of the best WRs the league has seen and Rome Odunze might become an NFL superstar one day. But right now, out of the three Bears WRs, DJ Moore is the one who is in his prime. The Bears’ attack should open up with all these weapons – including Cole Kmet – and that should help DJ Moore’s production as an elite target earner and deep route runner.

I know there are a lot of things in the air right now. But there is a path for DJ Moore to finish as a WR1 in 2024. It might seem complicated, but it’s not as impossible as his ADP would suggest.