The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: Cooper Kupp

Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.

Ah, Cooper Douglas Kupp. The starting collegiate WR out of powerhouse Eastern Washington University. The seventh WR drafted in the 2017 class. The winner of the 2021 Triple Crown, where he led the NFL in receptions (145), receiving yards (1947), and TD catches (16). 

How quickly fantasy players forget…

Look, I get it. Kupp is 31, the age where we see a lot of WRs begin their decline (check out Marvin Elequin’s article if you want more info on the Dynasty Lifecycle of WRs), but there looks to be a significant amount of juice left in this squeeze. Let’s lay out some reasons why Kupp stands a shot of finishing as a WR1 this year.

One more thing to remember: We are NOT projecting a WR1 end-of-the-year total; instead, we are merely giving the high end of the range of outcomes for players to show what type of ceiling is within the realm of possibilities.

Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.

2023 Season Recap

Kupp was looking to be a solid pick during the 2023 offseason. The world didn’t yet know the name Puka Nacua, and fantasy managers were expecting a build on the previous season for Kupp, where he only played nine games due to injury. He still managed to pull out a WR24 finish that year.

However, Kupp had to leave training camp in late July with a hamstring injury. After the practice where Kupp was injured, HC Sean McVay said that Kupp “looked like he came up a little bit in a red zone route, and then I just know they told me he was out for practice.” One practice missed turned into two, which ultimately became Kupp missing the first four games of the 2023 season. It was especially tough for fantasy managers who had just completed their drafts prior to Kupp going down. You couldn’t drop the guy.

Once Kupp returned, it was hit or miss. He missed the season’s final game due to injury, so he was only active for 12 games. In Week 11, Kupp only played 27% of the snaps. Fantasy results were mixed – he had five games where he finished as WR21 or better, six games where he was WR42 or worse, and one where he was right in the middle at WR28. It was roulette deciding when to start Kupp.

In addition, with Nacua bursting on the scene, fantasy managers (some who happened to own both players after snagging Nacua off of waivers once Kupp’s injury was public) didn’t know if both receivers were worth starting together in fantasy leagues. To be fair, this wasn’t a “when one player is inactive, the other one will automatically shine” type of thing. There were three weeks when both players were WR23 or better and three weeks when both were WR45 or worse. 

There was a lot of confusion in Southern California, but even with it, Kupp’s talent shone through. He finished the season with 737 receiving yards, which put him at a 1,044-yard, 17-game pace. He only scored five TDs in 2023; all of the TDs last year seemed to go to Nacua or Kyren Williams.

The Path for 2024

It is not only what Kupp has to do to become a WR1 but also how the Rams’ offense, in general, has to function. To illustrate what can and needs to happen, we must look back a few years at the numbers.

Target Share

In Kupp’s two best fantasy seasons, 2021’s behemoth of a year and 2022, Kupp flirted with just over a 30% target share. In 2021, he was at 32%, and in 2022, he was at 31%. There is a strong correlation between Kupp’s target share and his fantasy PPG. However, Kupp’s possibility of having a WR1 season does not hinge on the nonexistence of other pass catchers on the roster. Some players need to be almost the only option for their offense to flirt with the chance of a WR1 season.

Not Kupp.

Let’s look at the other pass-catchers who had solid seasons with Kupp:

• 2019 – Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee – all had at least 42 catches
• 2020 – Josh Reynolds, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee – all had at least 44 catches
• 2021 – Van Jefferson, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee – all had at least 45 catches

So, although Nacua will get his, Stafford and the Rams can support two solid fantasy options if the offense is alive and kicking. Although Nacua was the new shiny toy last year, when you break it down, Kupp still had tremendous opportunity. Kupp ran 399 routes with Nacua on the field and had a 27% target share in 2023. Nacua ran 397 routes and led the team with almost a 30% target share. 

This opportunity could be aided this season with the recovery of TE Tyler Higbee. Higbee went down with an ACL injury on January 14, and the average recovery time for that injury is six to nine months. Our injury expert Matthew Betz thinks that the best-case scenario for Higbee is a midseason return, but only 100% come November or December.

 If Higbee cannot take the field or is not yet back to full strength, targets are vacated. Higbee had 70 targets last season, and although the young Davis Allen looks promising, Kupp could quickly gobble up some of those targets.

Receptions & Catch Rate

Kupp had 59 receptions on 95 targets last year, giving him a 62% catch rate.  This was just playing 12 games. The Rams have 60 vacated targets from last season, and assuming Kupp is healthy for 16 games, we can extrapolate the numbers he might need to hit to be a WR1. And for me, I think he stands a good chance to stay healthy this year. Last season, Nacua was a surprise. A delightful surprise nonetheless, but this year, McVay can enter the season fully confident about how he can temper Kupp’s minutes when needed. I think that will lead to less overuse and a fresher Kupp.

With the numbers from last season, if Kupp had played 17 games, he would have been on a 134 target pace with 83 receptions for 1,044 yards.

Kupp had his worst catch percentage last season, just below his rate in his rookie year. These two years seem to be the outliers, with Kupp hitting 70% efficiency in his other five seasons. Even if Kupp’s targets increase slightly, let’s say just below his career average of 110 – if he hits his career average catch percentage (73%), we are looking at around an 80-catch season. Only 12 WRs in the top 24 last season had over 80 receptions.

The path is there.

Yards & aDOT

Kupp has only had two seasons in his career where he had less than 800 yards receiving – one was his injury-full 2018, where he played only eight games (566 yards), and the second was last season where he pulled in 737 yards. The sweet spot for Kupp to become a WR1, as long as he gets at least six TDs (which he has in four out of his seven seasons), seems to be, on average, 900 yards receiving.

Kupp continues to stay around two yards per route run even this late into his career, but the consistency of his aDOT is even more comforting for a possible WR1 finish. Kupp’s 8.6 aDOT in 2023 was the same as he had during his monster 2021 season. He makes his hay in the short and medium areas of the field, with 71 of his targets coming at those depths in 2023. Kupp is especially good at getting additional yards when he is targeted in the short area of the field – he gained 64% of his YAC there.

With the team’s makeup this season, it seems to hinge on Matthew Stafford‘s health and ability rather than Kupp’s. Since 2011, only five quarterbacks have finished in the top 10 during their age-36 season, but Stafford doesn’t need to finish that high to support Kupp; he just needs to be as good or a little better than he was last season.

In 2023, he finished as the QB15, almost throwing for 4,000 yards. A performance splitting the difference between last season and the Super Bowl-winning 2021 would seem to be enough to get Kupp what he needs.

Touchdowns

Kupp continues to be a red zone threat in Los Angeles, even with the emergence of Nacua. It wasn’t on par with his ridiculous 31 red zone targets he had in 2021, but Kupp had 19 last season compared to Nacua’s 16. To have a WR1 season, Kupp will have to keep this number high. 

We live in a world now where Nacua stands the chance of being doubled when down in the red zone. Kyren will undoubtedly get many opportunities to score, but Kupp could clean up if he gets open in the end zone. And if you get the ball close to Kupp, chances are he will hold on. In 2023, he only had four dropped passes.

Breakfast

When it comes down to it, a connection is a connection, and Kupp and Stafford have it. It is that relationship that you see every so often between a QB and their pass-catcher that you can’t even quantify. 

That “shared plate of eggs benny and a double shot of espresso” connection. No matter how good Nacua or any other part of the offense in Los Angeles gets, this relationship will still be there.

It really is the most important meal.

Conclusion 

Kupp is currently being drafted as the WR24 in the middle of the fourth round, according to Sleeper ADP, and plenty of drafters are passing on him, viewing him as the elder statesman who will now be left to high five Puka Nacua as he leads the Rams and receiving. And (as Jason says) don’t hear what I am not saying; I believe Nacua will be the number one option in Los Angeles – he is the future there, and McVay realizes that this might be his last chance to run it back with this particular squad. But I think passing on Kupp could be a huge mistake. 

The Rams, the team with the 10th most passing yards last season and the eighth most points scored will not go quietly into the night, and I think Kupp could help that happen.