The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: Christian Watson

Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.

Some say availability is the best ability. Well, I’d say the second-best ability is the ability to score three touchdowns in any given week. Through his first two years in the league, Christian Watson has showcased an impeccable fantasy ceiling when healthy. The only problem? He hasn’t been able to stay healthy. If he’s able to chase away the injury bug, he has a very clear path toward breaking fantasy football. Let’s take a closer look at this path.

Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.

2023 Season Recap

Christian Watson first rose to fantasy fame in 2022 as a rookie when he took over the league from Weeks 10-13. In this four-game span, he earned 24 targets that he turned into 15 catches for 362 scrimmage yards and eight total touchdowns. Though he is an athletic freak with tons of league-winning potential, he carried many question marks into 2023. Most notably, there was plausible reason to question his ability to stay healthy and whether he could keep up his production after a changing of the guards at quarterback.

In 2023, we learned just how good Jordan Love was and that Aaron Rodgers’ departure certainly wouldn’t be an issue for Watson going forward.

Watson unfortunately missed five more games than the year before due to injuries. While it also hurt to see Watson’s YPRR go down a bit, this could be expected due to the absence of Aaron Rodgers’ 50+ yard deep balls. It was never sustainable efficiency, especially after losing Rodgers in the offseason. On the flip side, Christian Watson’s target share went up despite the Packers’ offseason additions to the receiving corps, most notably Jayden Reed. In addition, Watson’s already-high aDOT increased in his sophomore season, furthering the idea that the team wants to move the ball downfield through him.

The Path for 2024

Christian Watson is one of the most athletic players in the NFL. He scored a 9.96 out of 10 in Kent Lee Platte’s RAS metric as a prospect. In addition, Watson is one of the most efficient receivers in the game, posting around 15 yards per catch each season with the added ability to take any catch to the house.

Even with a change in quarterbacks and added competition in the receiving room, Watson remained very efficient. Injuries remain the primary roadblock toward becoming a fantasy WR1.

Injuries

Aside from a concussion in 2022, all five of Watson’s major injuries that have kept him off the field have been in his right leg. Watson has strained his right hamstring three times in his young NFL career, forcing him to miss many games along the way.

So what will be different in 2024? Watson, concerned about his body and how it may affect his career, took it upon himself to see specialists regarding his hamstring.

Christian Watson went down to UW-Madison this Offseason with Eric Stokes to find the cause of their hamstring issues, with Watson finding out there’s a difference in his muscle mass in his legs, with his right leg being 20% less than his left. Since he found out, He’s dropped the… pic.twitter.com/SyTHWOugGl

— Easton Butler (@Easton__Butler) May 24, 2024

After finding a major discrepancy between the strengths of his hamstrings, Watson put a lot of time, money, and effort into fixing his body. Unlike last draft season, there is reason to believe Watson can stay healthy.

Didn’t mean to sound negative in my first post. I love when players spend their offseason trying correct possible risk factors

Re-injury risk should be lower now that he’s changed his training routine (and had a full offseason to heal) but that risk is still higher than another…

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) May 23, 2024

Injury expert Matthew Betz believes Watson’s work this offseason in balancing his hamstrings will lower his re-injury risk, though the likelihood of re-injury is still higher than that of a previously uninjured player.

Target Share

Targets are hard to come by in Green Bay. The wide receiver room has become incredibly crowded, as Sam DiSorbo showed in this graphic from his article earlier this year, “Evaluating the Packers’ Receiving Room.”

This can work to Watson’s advantage, however, because there is no clear top dog per se.

Receptions & Catch Rate

As mentioned before, catches are highly contested in Green Bay. In his rookie season, Watson had a solid 63.1% catch rate; this number sank down to 52.8% in 2023. While his catch rate is not ideal, some of his struggles can be attributed to injury. This isn’t as important of a stat for Watson, who earns his money with his YAC ability and touchdowns.

Yards & aDOT

Averaging 15 yards per catch and a similar aDOT, Christian Watson’s athleticism can turn any catch into a major play. His incredible 4.36 speed, paired with his 6’4″, 207-pound frame, makes for a unique, violent downfield threat.

A healthy Christian Watson is one of the most dominant players I’ve ever seen https://t.co/G6vva0WWc1 pic.twitter.com/mxVDn3Lk5D

— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) February 23, 2024

Touchdown Upside

Watson has the ability to score touchdowns in many different ways. His speed and agility allow him to turn upfield for long touchdowns. At the same time, his elite size makes him capable of climbing the ladder in the red zone against defenders. Though touchdowns are difficult to project, it’s reasonable to assume plenty for Watson.

Conclusion

Unlike many of the other wide receivers being drafted at a similar ADP, Christian Watson has the ceiling of a WR1. His elite physical traits, paired with the strong arm of Jordan Love, equip him with the power to break fantasy football, as he has done in the past in certain weeks. Injuries may still stand in the way of his success, but he has done plenty of work this offseason to prevent them from taking over once more.

As the consensus WR39 in the Ballers’ rankings, Christian Watson is a very appealing high-risk, high-reward wager to make in the later rounds of 2024 drafts. Should we see a continuation of his efficiency from the first two years of his career and fewer injury problems, we could very easily see Christian Watson finishing as a fantasy WR1.