The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: Amari Cooper

Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.

As the fantasy football season approaches, managers everywhere analyze player stats, project future performance, and search for that edge to secure a championship. Among the wide receivers outside the consensus top 12 wideouts, one name stands out to me for his potential to ascend to WR1 status in 2024: Amari Cooper. Known for his exceptional route-running ability, Cooper has consistently been a reliable option. However, this season presents a unique opportunity for him to elevate his fantasy point prowess to new heights. Let’s dive into his past stats, current team dynamics, and the factors that could propel him into the glorious WR1 category.

Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.

2023 Season Recap

The rollercoaster ride that was Amari Cooper‘s 2023 season was not a fun one for fantasy managers. Every time he showed managers something during a week, he seemed to disappoint the next one, which probably had a lot to do with his 78% start rate in Sleeper leagues. It’s hard to start a wideout with any confidence when they just gave you a one-catch for 16 yards week. Now in all fairness to Amari, it can’t be easy playing with four different quarterbacks during a season. He really started to hit his stride though when Browns’ Head Coach Kevin Stefanski opened up the playbook for Joe Flacco and allowed him to air it out at a ridiculous clip. In the five regular season games that Joe played, he averaged 40.8 attempts per game which would have had the Browns ranked number one in pass attempts in the league if you extrapolated that over a full 17-game season. Cooper benefitted from this shift in playstyle and saw some of his best performances come during it, including his monster fantasy playoff performance of 11 receptions, 265 yards, and two touchdowns. I will get to how this could benefit Amari later on, but for now, let’s take a look at his 2022 and 2023 season statistics before jumping ahead of ourselves:

One thing that is easily recognized by analyzing his 2022 and 2023 statistics is that he virtually had the same production each year, but fell short on touchdowns in 2023. In fact, he improved his yards per route run and ran for more yards in two fewer games. The touchdown category brought his fantasy scoring down but throughout his career, Amari has averaged 6.67 touchdowns per season. The question becomes, can he continue to produce solid advanced analytical seasons at this age and will his QB play be better for him in the 2024 campaign?

The Path for 2024

Cleveland decided to air the ball out down the stretch in 2023 and Kevin Stefanski seems to be determined to continue that style of play in 2024. The Browns brought in Ken Dorsey in the offseason to take over the offensive coordinator role and play-calling duties. In his 2022 campaign with the Bills, he led them to the eighth most pass attempts per game behind the arm of Josh Allen, but one thing that Browns QB Deshaun Watson has not been doing as of late that Josh Allen does quite often is run the ball. With a more pocket passer mentality from Watson, we could easily see the Browns finishing in the top five in pass attempts this coming season. This, along with the fact that Nick Chubb is coming off of another torn ACL, means that we could see the Browns throwing the ball at a very high clip. If that does happen, we could see enormous workload going Cooper’s way.

Deshaun Watson has not even remotely lived up to his massive fully guaranteed contract that the Browns gave him in 2022 and he is coming off shoulder surgery that sidelined him after only playing five full games last year. If he is fully recovered (which according to camp reports he is “ahead of schedule” – aren’t we all this time of year?) then we will see him start the season. If the Browns can get even 80% of what Watson was with the Texans, then the target earners for Cleveland should see productive seasons ahead.

Amari Cooper averaged 17 Half PPR PPG in the games he played where Deshaun Watson or Joe Flacco played the majority of the snaps. pic.twitter.com/v9YIkmBlug

— Wyatt (@WyattB_FF) June 29, 2024

Target Share

In 2023, Amari and Deshaun played five full games together. In said games, Amari Cooper saw an average target share of 23.3% which would have made him Deshaun’s most targeted player during his 2023 season. If that type of target share continues during the 2024 season, and the Browns continue to air it out more often, Amari could easily surpass his 2022 full-season targets of 132 and push into the 140 range.

In 2022, when Ken Dorsey was the OC of the Buffalo Bills, Stefon Diggs saw a massive workload of 156 targets which propelled him to a WR4 season in PPR scoring formats. Dorsey has not been shy about peppering targets to his best wideout thus far in his coaching career and nothing makes me think that will change now that his number one option is Amari Cooper. The 23.3% target share mark that Deshaun and Cooper had in their five games last year could easily eclipse 25% with the change in philosophy and scheme.

Receptions

Over the past two seasons, Amari Cooper has been a consistent contributor to Cleveland’s offense, recording 78 receptions in 2022 and 76 in 2023. These numbers reflect his reliability and skill as a primary target, but there’s potential for even greater production as the Browns transition to a more fast-paced, pass-heavy offense. With an increased emphasis on airing the ball out, Cooper is poised to see a significant uptick in targets, and consequently, receptions.

In 2024, the Browns’ offensive strategy is expected to shift towards a more aggressive aerial attack and continue what we saw at the tail-end of the 2023 season. This should help take advantage of Cooper’s route-running prowess and ability to create separation. This change in tempo and approach aligns perfectly with Cooper’s strengths, suggesting that his reception totals could easily surpass last season. Cooper has caught 62.88% of the targets thrown his way in the past four seasons so an uptick in plays per game and pass attempts should lead to Cooper pushing for the mid-80s and possibly seeing another 90+ reception season. As the Browns look to maximize their offensive efficiency, Cooper’s role as a go-to receiver will be pivotal. With more opportunities and a dynamic offensive scheme, Amari Cooper is primed to elevate his production this upcoming season.

Yards & aDOT

Amari Cooper has been a yardage machine throughout his career, surpassing 1,000 receiving yards in seven of his nine seasons. Last year was no different in that regard as he had another solid performance, thanks in part to his impressive average depth of target (aDOT). Among the receivers that saw at least 98 targets (had to get Justin Jefferson into the stats) last year, Cooper ranked fourth in aDOT with 14.1. His aDOT throughout his career has hovered around the 11-yard mark, further iterating just how good Cooper is at making big plays down the field. He’s not just catching short passes; he’s consistently getting the ball further downfield, which makes him a valuable asset in any fantasy lineup.

Cooper’s ability to work in the intermediate area of the field is a big reason for his success. He has a knack for finding the soft spots in zone coverage and making himself a reliable target for his quarterback. Whether it’s on slants, digs, or deep outs, Cooper knows how to get open and make plays. This skill set should mesh well with the Browns’ new fast-paced offense, giving him plenty of opportunities to rack up yards. But as we all know, piling up yards won’t be enough to thrust a teetering WR up into the ranks of being a top-12 option next year. That feat is done by hitting paydirt.

Touchdowns

Amari Cooper is set to be one of the main red zone threats for the Cleveland Browns next season. Throughout his career, Cooper has averaged 6.67 touchdowns per season and has eclipsed seven TDs in five of his nine seasons, showcasing his ability to find the end zone consistently. Last year, the Browns ranked 19th in passing touchdowns (24), a number that could see a significant boost with Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey now calling the shots. Under Dorsey’s leadership in 2022, the Buffalo Bills ranked second in passing touchdowns with 35, highlighting his knack for creating high-scoring offenses. With Dorsey at the helm, Cooper’s touchdown potential is poised to rise, making him a great bet to beat his ADP of 42 (WR30) in PPR scoring formats.

Conclusion

There is no doubt in my mind that Amari Cooper‘s consistent play over the years, combined with the Browns’ new offensive scheme, sets him up for a standout season in 2024. Cooper’s ability to rack up receptions, yardage, and touchdowns has been proven year after year, making him a reliable fantasy option. With Ken Dorsey as the new offensive coordinator, the Browns are poised to implement a more aggressive, pass-heavy strategy that could significantly boost Cooper’s production. Additionally, his target share numbers with Deshaun Watson only amplifies my excitement about him this season. All these factors make Amari Cooper a strong candidate to emerge as a WR1 this season, and if nothing else, I believe Cooper will be a great value at his current ADP come the conclusion of the 2024 season.