A couple of years ago, I wrote the first version of this article in an effort to try to quantify the effect of ACL injuries on performance in running backs in year one versus year two. Rather than re-write that entire article from scratch (and save you some time as a reader!), I’d recommend checking out that article to get a better sense of the methods for the study.
But now, two years later, we have more information and more players in our sample size to further solidify some thoughts on this ongoing topic that will affect fantasy football drafters for years to come. Back in August of 2022, here were my big takeaways:
- In year one following surgery, players are generally less efficient and put up fewer fantasy points per game in their first season back.
- Some players, especially those that are veterans who have been in the league for years, see not just a small decline in efficiency, but a relatively large decline in efficiency.
- In general, younger players are more likely to return to their pre-injury level of efficiency.
- Excluding players who retired after their ACL injury, the vast majority of players were more efficient in yards per attempt, yards per touch, and fantasy points per game in the second year following ACL surgery.
Since writing that article, we have more players to add to the study, namely J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Javonte Williams and Breece Hall. Let’s dive into the data from all of the RBs that now make up my sample going back to 2015.
Comparing Year 1 vs. Year 2 After ACL Surgery
| Player | Age | Year of Injury | 1st Season YPC | 2nd Season YPC | 1st Season YCO/A | 2nd Season YCO/A | 1st Season yards/touch | 2nd Season yards/touch | 1st Season Elusive Rating | 2nd Season Elusive Rating | 1st Season Fantasy PPG | 2nd Season Fantasy PPG |
| Jamaal Charles | 29 | 2015 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 1.67 | 2.93 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 66.8 | 4.13 | 4.0 |
| Dion Lewis | 25 | 2015 | 4.4 | 5 | 2.10 | 2.98 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 36.0 | 61.7 | 6.6 | 11.3 |
| Darren Sproles | 34 | 2017 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.33 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 32.3 | 26.1 | 8.9 | 2.3 |
| Dalvin Cook | 22 | 2017 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.02 | 2.97 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 81.9 | 55.3 | 12.0 | 19.0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 25 | 2018 | 3.0 | N/A – Retired | 2.70 | N/A – Retired | 3.0 | N/A – Retired | N/A | N/A – Retired | 1.0 | N/A – Retired |
| Jerick McKinnon | 26 | 2018 | N/A – Missed entire season | 3.9 | N/A – Missed entire season | 2.28 | N/A – Missed entire season | 5.0 | N/A – Missed entire season | 36.1 | N/A – Missed entire season | 6.9 |
| Rashaad Penny | 23 | 2019 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 2.09 | 4.52 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 19.0 | 112.1 | 1.0 | 11.9 |
| Lamar Miller | 28 | 2019 | N/A – Zero attempts | N/A – Retired | N/A – Zero attempts | N/A – Retired | N/A – Zero attempts | N/A – Retired | N/A – Zero attempts | N/A – Retired | N/A – Zero attempts | N/A – Retired |
| Rex Burkhead | 30 | 2020 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.65 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 33.1 | 29.5 | 5.7 | 3.7 |
| Saquon Barkley | 23 | 2020 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.69 | 2.75 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 35.7 | 36.5 | 9.9 | 16.0 |
| JK Dobbins | 23 | 2021 | 5.7 | N/A Torn Achilles Wk 1 | 3.04 | N/A Torn Achilles Wk 1 | 5.7 | N/A Torn Achilles Wk 1 | 57.6 | N/A Torn Achilles Wk 1 | 9.7 | N/A Torn Achilles Wk 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 27 | 2021 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 3.48 | 2.76 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 66.2 | 35.6 | 6.6 | 10.6 |
| Javonte Williams | 23 | 2022 | 3.6 | N/A – Only 1 season removed | 2.71 | N/A – Only 1 season removed | 3.8 | N/A – Only 1 season removed | 40.0 | N/A – Only 1 season removed | 9.7 | N/A – Only 1 season removed |
| Breece Hall | 22 | 2022 | 4.5 | N/A – Only 1 season removed | 3.43 | N/A – Only 1 season removed | 5.3 | N/A – Only 1 season removed | 88.6 | N/A – Only 1 season removed | 14.9 | N/A – Only 1 season removed |
- YPC = Yards per carry (The Fantasy Footballers Player Profiles)
- YCO/A = Yards after contact per attempt (PFF)
- Elusive Rating = (Missed Tackles Forced) / (Designed Run Attempts + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact Per Attempt * 100); A PFF signature stat
- Fantasy PPG = Fantasy points per game (The Fantasy Footballers Player Profiles)
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