The Fantasy Footballers’ WR Rankings Countdown: 10-1

The chaos of draft season is nearly here, but have no fear the Ballers are breaking down their top WRs ahead of the 2024 season! Andy, Mike, and Jason are walking through their rankings to break down their consensus top 20 WRs that fantasy managers should have their eyes on prior to drafts.

Of course, you can get all of the Ballers’ rankings for every position along with video breakdowns and more analysis in the UDK!

WR10 – Puka Nacua (LAR)

Andy: WR12 | Jason: WR7 | Mike: WR14
ADP: 1.12  | WR7

What better way to kick off the top 10 than with the best rookie WR we’ve ever seen for fantasy football in Puka Nacua. Puka set the fantasy world on fire last season breaking fantasy records for rookie WR production with seven top-12 WR finishes and nine games of 15+ fantasy points – both of which were the most ever for a rookie at the position. It wasn’t just fantasy production that Puka was elite in though. As a rookie, Nacua led the NFL in targets in formations with three or more WRs on the field.

While it’s pretty easy to be in on Puka after such a prolific rookie season, there should be at least a little concern for fantasy managers at his current draft position in the back of the first round. Obviously the recent news of a knee injury in training camp could be a little concerning, but the addition of a fully healthy Cooper Kupp back to the Rams offense could siphon away the work that put Puka in elite status last season. Of course, there’s also the chance that we’ve already seen Puka’s best season ever. There have only been 12 rookie wide receivers other than Puka who caught for 1,100+ yards. Of that group, only five of them ever bested the production from their rookie season. I’m not saying we’ve seen the best of Puka, but fantasy managers drafting him at his current cost could be getting him at his fantasy ceiling. Then again, as a fifth-round NFL pick, he’s already an outlier so he may just continue to be just that!

WR9 – Deebo Samuel (SF)

Andy: WR9 | Jason: WR9 | Mike: WR13
ADP: 3.07  | WR16

The tricky case of Deebo Samuel pulls in at WR9 on the Ballers’ rankings. Deebo has given fantasy managers seasons of absolute gold (WR2 and WR12 overall in 2021 and 2023 respectively) but has also let us down in recent memory (WR37 in 2022). What’s encouraging about Deebo is the 2023 version of the 49ers’ offense seemed to be directed at getting him and Christian McCaffrey involved in as many ways as possible. Even with a full season of CMC with the 49ers, Deebo still averaged 2.5 carries per game, so the added value fantasy managers love from the versatile WR is still a possibility moving forward.

The potential for a Brandon Aiyuk-less San Francisco offense might be what has the Ballers pushing Deebo so high in their rankings above his current ADP of WR16. In the two games that Deebo has played without Aiyuk, he’s finished as the WR9 and WR7 behind a combined 25 targets and 262 receiving yards. It feels more likely that Aiyuk won’t be in San Francisco for the 2024 season, so that could only raise the ceiling for Deebo.

WR8 – Davante Adams (LV)

Andy: WR7 | Jason: WR12 | Mike: WR9
ADP: 2.06  | WR11

It wasn’t the prettiest ride to a WR11 finish last season, but Davante Adams found a way. Adams ended 2024 finishing as a top-24 WR in five of his last eight games including three top-10 finishes in that stretch. You can almost see Adams’ season shift when the Raiders made their head coaching change after Week 8. While the usage was similar as far as targets were concerned, Adams scored all but three of his eight TDs from Week 11 on.

The trouble moving forward for fantasy managers is knowing if there’s a realistic ceiling for Adams coming in 2024 to help him live up to his current draft value of WR11. Las Vegas seems like they’re intent on establishing the run and they may have to with their QB options coming between Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew. Training camp hasn’t shed much light on either QB getting an edge towards the starting gig, so any investment in Adams early in drafts is going to come with plenty of risk and maybe not a high enough ceiling when you consider the asking price for such an elite talent.

WR7 – Garrett Wilson (NYJ)

Andy: WR11 | Jason: WR8 | Mike: WR7
ADP: 2.01  | WR8

Going from a player who we’re questioning if he can still do it to a player who we’ve never really seen do it but we think is capable in Garrett Wilson. Say what you will about Wilson’s underwhelming production, he’s been a monster on the NFL field seeing the most targets ever through two years in NFL history – though only 62.5% of those targets have been deemed “catchable.” To make it worse, only six of Wilson’s 310 career targets have come inside the five-yard line so an increase in scoring opportunities could help Wilson be a legitimate threat as a top-five finish.

Wilson has endured two long seasons of mediocre QB play in New York, and fantasy managers are hoping that they’ll finally see Wilson reach his potential as a fantasy option with a healthy Aaron Rodgers under center for the Jets. The biggest question will be what kind of ceiling Rodgers gives Wilson since we haven’t seen a “good” version of the former MVP in nearly three seasons. If fantasy managers believe in this new-look offense for New York, there’s a good chance he could outperform his current ADP.

WR6 – A.J. Brown (PHI)

Andy: WR5 | Jason: WR4 | Mike: WR6
ADP: 1.08  | WR6

It was a true tale of two seasons for A.J. Brown and the Eagles’ offense in 2023. Brown was red hot to start 2023, finishing as a top-24 WR in eight of his first nine games, including being the WR1 in fantasy from Weeks 3-9. During that stretch, Brown averaged 22 fantasy points per game and was on pace through 11 weeks for nearly 1,900 receiving yards and 11 TDs. The back stretch of the season wasn’t as productive, with Brown only scoring one TD from Week 11 onward and just two top-24 WR finishes.

There’s hope that the change at offensive coordinator in Philadelphia could be what’s needed to reignite this offense that holds so many fantasy football hopes and dreams. New OC Kellen Moore should bring more pre-snap motion to the Eagles’ offense – he ranked seventh in pre-snap motion last season in L.A., using it on 61% of plays. If the offense fantasy managers are accustomed to seeing comes back on the field for Philadelphia, Brown could be a staple on winning fantasy rosters in 2024.

WR5 – Justin Jefferson (MIN)

Andy: WR6 | Jason: WR6 | Mike: WR3
ADP: 1.04  | WR3

It’s a bit odd to have such an elite fantasy option like Justin Jefferson fall from the 1.01 he was being drafted at in 2023 without a terrible injury happening, but that’s the reality ahead of 2024. Jefferson has had a historic first four seasons in the NFL, currently ranking first all-time in receiving yards per game with 98.3. To put that into perspective, Jefferson could average just 43 yards per game this season and he’d still be ahead of Calvin Johnson’s 86.1 average that’s currently in second place.

The biggest concern and reason for Jefferson’s dip in ADP rests solely on the uncertainty at the QB spot in Minnesota. With Kirk Cousins heading to Atlanta in free agency, it feels like Sam Darnold is poised to start the season under center for the Vikings with 10th-overall pick J.J. McCarthy potentially taking over at some point in time this season. Minnesota’s schedule start to the year is pretty scary, so fantasy managers who invest in him early in drafts may have a bumpy ride until we get a better idea of what this offense will be in Minnesota.

WR4 – Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)

Andy: WR4 | Jason: WR5 | Mike: WR5
ADP: 1.05  | WR4

There may have been a feeling of let-down from Ja’Marr Chase for fantasy managers last season, but he still put up a WR13 season despite the suspect QB play in Cincinnati with Joe Burrow hurt for most of the season. Chase has been elite when he’s on the field, scoring 20+ fantasy points in 33% of his 45 career games. Over the last three seasons, that’s only behind Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, and Justin Jefferson. When you add in the return of Joe “B-Rabbit” Burrow to this offense, the sky could be the limit for Chase in 2024.

Maybe the most exciting part of investing in Chase this season could be the absence of a true number-two WR with Tee Higgins’ status up in the air with the Bengals. If Higgins were to be traded or not play for some stretch of the season, Chase would have Burrow’s full attention with only unproven receiving options left on the team. If there’s one thing to gripe on with Chase, it’s his lack of a “middle ground” outcome. In 2023, Chase had five top-10 WR finishes but none between WR11-WR26. If Chase can add that small bit of consistency to his game, he could prove to be one of the more reliable options for fantasy managers at the position.

WR3 – Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)

Andy: WR3 | Jason: WR3 | Mike: WR4
ADP: 1.07  | WR5

It may be easy for the casual fantasy football fan to overlook what Amon-Ra St. Brown has been able to do over his first three seasons, but he’s every bit deserving of the WR3 ranking that the Ballers have given him. St. Brown’s 315 receptions are the third most through a player’s first three seasons behind only Justin Jefferson and Michael Thomas. What sets Amon-Ra apart as a slot WR is his ability to get targets in the red zone. Last season he finished behind only Davante Adams and CeeDee Lamb last season in red zone target first-reads and saw a target on 33% of his routes run in the red zone.

For fantasy managers looking to get value in the first round, Amon-Ra may be your best bet as he is currently going as the WR5, but he has every bit of a chance of finishing as the WR1 overall as the players going in front of him. It is easy for fantasy managers to be optimistic about having the main receiving option in the Lions’ offense after their impressive 2023 campaign. What’s scary is if Detroit’s offense can take a step forward this season, Amon-Ra could be a difference-maker in an even bigger way this season.

WR2 – CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

Andy: WR2 | Jason: WR1 | Mike: WR2
ADP: 1.02  | WR1

When fantasy managers think of the players who won them championships ahead of 2024 drafts, CeeDee Lamb has to be near the top of their list. Lamb finally made the ascension that the fantasy community had been hoping he’d be able to make, finishing as the WR1 overall in 2023 after giving us a taste of what he could be at his ceiling in his first three seasons. Just so you remember, Lamb finished as a top-24 WR in all but three games last season, which included 12 straight finishes as the WR19 or higher from Week 6 until the end of the year. What’s most impressive about what Lamb was able to do is that he won at every level of the field, finishing third in receptions of 20+ yards, third in receptions of 10-19 yards, and led the league in receptions of less than 10 yards.

The question for fantasy managers investing in Lamb in drafts this season hinges on whether or not he can sustain that type of production or anything close to it. Lamb’s formula for a repeat season feels like all the ingredients are there with Dallas not making moves to add to their WR room in any significant way. What could worry fantasy managers is Lamb’s contract situation with the Cowboys getting in the way of him being ready to step back into being a top-five option at WR. Despite the uncertainty surrounding his future in Dallas, as long as Lamb is suiting up this season, he’s a sure bet to return on his value again in 2024.

WR1 – Tyreek Hill (MIA)

Andy: WR1 | Jason: WR2 | Mike: WR1
ADP: 1.04  | WR2

It could feel odd to have a 30-year-old WR ahead of such young productive players, but Tyreek Hill is an outlier of outliers for fantasy and should be treated as such. Hill has been nothing short of the most consistent receiver since 2017, finishing as a top-six WR in all but one season including being the WR2 in three of the last four years. In 2023, Hill was otherworldly with nine games of 20+ fantasy points, averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game. Hill sees targets at a rate like nearly no player in history, getting a target on 35.5% of his routes run in 2023, the second-highest rate since 2006.

Any concerns that Hill may be getting ready to hang it up should be put to bed after his contract was just revised by the Dolphins to move money around for the 2024 and 2025 seasons. At the very least it feels like Tyreek is locked into being a Dolphin for the next two seasons. With all the major pieces returning for Miami, Hill should only continue to scorch opposing defenses this season even if the team’s WR2, Jaylen Waddle, is healthier than he was last season. In the two years that Hill has been in Miami, he’s played 31 games with Waddle on the field and has been a top-10 WR in 16 of those games. The best takeaway here is there are maybe one or two players you can make a real argument to draft ahead of Hill and even then I don’t know if there’s another player I’d rather have on my team.