The Fantasy Footballers’ RB Rankings Countdown: 10-1

Real football is getting closer, and with the beginning of the preseason, your fantasy draft is just around the corner. To help you prepare, Andy, Mike, and Jason will go through their rankings of the key players you should target. They have been through WR countdowns for 20-11 and 10-1, and are now working through the RBs. They finished players 20-11 yesterday, and now we get to the really exciting players!

To hear the complete breakdown of RBs 10-1 and The Ballers’ consensus rankings, check out the show on YouTube below.

Sign up for the Ultimate Draft Kit if this isn’t in-depth enough. The UDK has linear and tier-based rankings, player profiles, and more. It is all there to help you dominate your draft on the road to your fantasy championship.

RB10 – Derrick Henry (BAL)

Andy: RB14 | Jason: RB9 | Mike RB11
ADP: 3.01 | RB10

The King is still here and now is on an offense that everyone thinks should be great. He has led the NFL in yards after contact for four of the last five years, had double-digit touchdowns in six straight years, and could make it seven. Henry is the RB version of Mike Evans in terms of consistency, longevity, and defying the age cliff. He is an outlier, and those players stay outliers throughout their careers. For Henry, it means you can keep rolling with him because he is excellent. Wins and losses have defined Henry’s fantasy success. He doubles his fantasy points when the team wins compared to when they lose, going from 9.5 fantasy points per game in losses up to 18.7 points in wins. This team should win plenty of games, which should be good for Derrick Henry.

Henry will likely take on fewer carries and usage than he has seen; we have seen the Ravens utilize their RBs in a committee, but even with Henry just getting the primary workload, he could still be solid for your roster. Last year, Gus Edwards didn’t make it to 200 carries on the season, but he had 13 rushing touchdowns, and from Week 7 on, he was the RB12. If you only give Henry that level of work, he is already great, but factor in that it’s the Yeti Derrick Henry, and you have to feel good about his ability to impact your fantasy roster.

It is also important to remember that while Lamar is a rushing QB, the Ravens will primarily line up and let Derrick Henry do the dirty work of scoring touchdowns when they get down near the goal line. They are not significant users of the tush-push method.

Henry is getting older, and at some point, he will not be the dominant force he has been, and you could be the one left holding the bag when he finally craps out. The best case against Derrick Henry is the offensive line, which was ranked 25th last year, and has taken a downgrade after losing some starters. He has dropped in efficiency each year on his touches, and if there are games he doesn’t score, you could hit a shallow floor from a player you paid a high price to draft.

Henry isn’t going to catch passes. Baltimore doesn’t heavily utilize their RBs in the passing game, and Henry has only seen two total receptions on third down in the last five years. Justice Hill will also have more work than you want him to at points, which will be annoying.

While the case for things going wrong for Henry is strong, his draft cost is the RB10, not the RB5 or RB6 that he has been in the past, and with his touchdown upside, he is a relatively safe pick for you to make this year. He also saw plenty of shared carries last year for the atrocious offense Titans and was still the RB8 on the year. He is going to be the starter, he is on a good offense, and he has shown little decline from his dominance. Take Henry, and know that you will be just fine.

RB9 – Isiah Pacheco (KC)

Andy: RB12 | Jason: RB11 | Mike: RB8
ADP: 3.08 | RB12

Mike and Jason have been on the Pacheco hype train all offseason, and for good reason. It starts with the philosophical rule that you want running backs on good offenses in fantasy. The Chiefs are one of the teams we can trust year in and out to be solid on offense, which makes their RB at least fantasy-relevant. The one thing that hurts Pacheco is that he will never be the focal point for the offense. Patrick Mahomes will always be the alpha in the offense, which means there could be weeks he vanishes because the passing game is their main focus on offense.

Pacheco has impressed their team enough that Kansas City has made no moves around him to threaten his job security. Head Coach Andy Reid has long used his RBs around the goal line, and Mahomes doesn’t mind checking it down to an RB if they are open in the passing game. Pacheco is a bigger back with great breakaway speed and is younger. The team has said he can run a full route tree and has good hands. So he checks all the boxes that you want for a fantasy RB.

Pacheco was 24th out of 35 qualifying backs in PFF’s Elusive Rating, 27th in evaded tackles, 21st in fantasy points per opportunity, and 26th in yards per touch. The efficiency numbers weren’t there statistically, but, again, being on the Chiefs makes a difference because the offense is so good and gives the RB such high-value opportunities. Plus, Pacheco is getting almost all the work, and that kind of volume keeps anyone’s value elevated. Add in that the volume increased throughout last season, going from the first half of the season, where we averaged 16.9 opportunities, to the second half, where he averaged 20.4 opportunities — showing us that the Chiefs were trusting him more and more to deliver for them. High volume and a high-powered offense make for fantasy gold in the RB marketplace.

RB8 – Saquon Barkley (PHI)

Andy: RB9 | Jason: RB7 | Mike: RB10
ADP: 2.03 | RB6

Giants fans will want to look away when Saquon comes running out in green this year, but the Eagles went out and paid him big money to be their starter. This kind of payday is a big deal because Philly has not traditionally paid that position and instead has pieced the backfield together with lower-cost options.

Saquon has had to do everything for so long and now gets a massive upgrade in the offense as a whole and, most importantly, in the offensive line to run behind. It is fair to have some worry about goal-line opportunities with the effectiveness of the QB sneak that the Eagles have utilized so heavily. Could that hurt Saquon, who, in the past, had been the entire offensive game plan for the Giants?

Let’s look at D’Andre Swift, RB for the Eagles last year, who had a very good season last year, and a big part of that was how often he had massive holes to run through, which led to one of the largest yards before contact in the league last year. Swift also had 14 carries inside the five-yard line. If you give Saquon Barkley that kind of work with this offensive line, you will see the tush-push take the hit because they won’t need to run it from the one-yard line; Barkley will have already scored.

Last year, for RB carries inside the 10, the Giants ranked 30th, and the Eagles ranked fourth. That is a massive upgrade for Saquon to get to walk into. Did Saquon look great last year? Not really, but he was the only weapon working for the Giants. Defenses were keying into him primarily and daring the Giants to throw. Mix into that the 27th PFF-ranked offensive line, and it is easy to see why he struggled so badly.

Mike is the lowest on Saquon because he sees many outcomes. He recognizes that Barkley could be the RB5 or the RB18. The Eagles are happy to give most of the work to one RB, with Swift having 75%+ of the RB work, and if Saquon is still the elite player he was, then the top-tier finish is available for him. However, one of the things that has always helped Saquon is that he is an excellent pass catcher, and the Eagles have not traditionally utilized the RB in the passing game much because of Jalen Hurts‘ ability to scramble. The floor for the number of receptions we have been used to is somewhat gone. That makes the possibilities a little riskier than in the past, but sometimes, with no risk, there is no reward.

RB7 – Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX)

Andy: RB7 | Jason: RB8 | Mike: RB7
ADP: 2.08 | RB8

It was an impressive start to the year last year. Etienne started the season as the RB2 through eight weeks, which is impactful and sets your team up for long-term success. However, he didn’t sustain that level of play, which made him much scarier going into this year. Who do you get, Jekyll or Hyde?

He is firmly in control of the backfield, with little to no threat around him for carries, and the team needs him to be a focal point in the offense because of his talent level. The Jaguars have spent two years saying they want to lower his usage, but it is hard to see how that is possible unless Tank Bigsby makes a considerable step forward and shows that he belongs on the NFL field more.

Last year, Etienne saw 340 opportunities, which was third most among RBs. He also is a good pass catcher and saw 73 targets. The team has lost Calvin Ridley and brought in more big play-type wide receivers. Etienne should be more involved in the passing game to help the team move the sticks when needed. Etienne also has some explosive breakaway speed, which can help him score from anywhere on the field, which is significant because last year’s touchdowns made all the difference. In the nine games he didn’t score a touchdown, Etienne averaged 8.5 fantasy points per game, which tanked him in the second half of the season when he ranked as the RB22, averaging only 11.4 fantasy points from Week 9 on.

If the Jaguars’ offense is not good, like they were in the back half of last season, then Etienne could struggle to reach the ceiling you want for his draft cost. Etienne could be one of the top running backs in all fantasy if the offense is good. He will have the workload, even though the team is hyping Tank Bigsby again, and he has already shown that when the offense is good, and he gets the volume, he will deliver for your fantasy roster.

RB6 – Jonathan Taylor (IND)

Andy: RB6 | Jason: RB6 | Mike: RB5
ADP: 2.01 | RB5

Please stay healthy! We all would like to talk about Taylor more regularly, but contract, health, and his QB have dominated the conversation for way too long. Taylor is the RB5 in drafts, so fantasy managers are ready to risk it again for what Taylor can produce.

There is a fear that Richardson’s ability as a runner could hurt Taylor, and the Colts have said they will not limit Richardson as a runner. This situation has always been an issue for the RB position. Since 2015, only one RB has scored 15+ fantasy points per game alongside a QB who scored 100+ rushing fantasy points, which was Saquon with Daniel Jones. We must assume that if Richardson plays the entire season and is healthy, he will score 100+ fantasy points from rushing. The ceiling case for Taylor of 15+ ppg is not really in the cards for Taylor to deliver. That is not a watermark that most fantasy RBs are reaching, though, as only Christian McCaffrey and Raheem Mostert finished with that output level last year.

He could have an excellent season, but the top three are probably not in the realm of possibility, assuming everyone stays healthy. His touchdown usage could increase if the offense improves, and he gets more high-value carries that could help him reach the level you are drafting. More than anything, you need to recognize that drafting him to be more than the RB5 or RB6 is not very likely.

RB5 – Kyren Williams (LAR)

Andy: RB5 | Jason: RB5 | Mike: RB4
ADP: 2.05 | RB7

Sean McVay has long been a one-RB kind of head coach. Last year, this meant tons of excitement for Cam Akers, which turned into an incredible year for Kyren Williams. Williams saw 37% of the Ram’s total opportunities in only 12 games played last year. He was a complete workhorse for the team. Only CMC had more usage among RBs.

This year, doubt has crept in over the offseason due to some injury issues, and the Rams drafting Blake Corum. The Rams have repeatedly said that Kyren will be the focal point for the team’s backfield, but there is fair reason to be concerned about his usage level.

Except he was so good last year! He averaged 19+ fantasy points per game, but because he missed so much time, it hurt his average due to the weeks you couldn’t play him. That is where the fear comes in as the team may use him less to try and have him for more games throughout the season. Jason reiterated one of his things to remember from last season: if a player is great on the NFL field and the team adds depth behind him, do not overreact to that move.

Will Kyren be able to maintain the same level of domination? Maybe not, but he has always been a great RB and fits this system incredibly well. Last season, he had 50% great and 83% good games. Williams made you happy last year and should do so again, even with the level of draft capital you have to invest.

RB4 – Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

Andy: RB4 | Jason: RB3 | Mike: RB6
ADP: 1.10 | RB4

It took a while to get going last year, but from Weeks 7-16, he was the RB3 and averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game. He is only 22 years old and can score at any time on any play, but he shares a backfield, which makes him scary. He had huge plays last year with the second most 20+ yard rushes. However, he will most likely be pulled off the field for plays within the two-yard line, and David Montgomery will come out to vulture the touchdown. If that were to happen multiple times in a game, it would take a week from being incredible to being just okay.
Gibbs and Montgomery have the issue of the other being a possible vulture or opportunity taker.

However, if Montgomery were to miss time, Gibbs’s upside would skyrocket. Last year, when Montgomery wasn’t on the field, Gibbs averaged 18 rush attempts per game, five catches per game, and 22 PPR fantasy points per game. That was in Gibbs’ rookie year as the backup RB for the Lions. This year, he should take over as the primary back, which he did at last year’s end of the season.

In the second year of Gibbs being in the system, his usage should increase, especially in the passing game with the exit of Josh Reynolds. The team could simultaneously put Gibbs and Montgomery on the field and line Gibbs up as a receiver, increasing his usage. The path to being the RB1 is less clear than the other three RBs in the top four, but there is still a way that Gibbs will end up as the best back in fantasy this year.

RB3 – Breece Hall (NYJ)

Andy: RB2 | Jason: RB4 | Mike: RB2
ADP: 1.09 | RB3

The Jets were terrible last year on offense, yet Breece Hall was able to finish as the RB4 on the season while coming off an ACL tear. He had 95 targets, leading all RBs. Hall was like a WR1 last year. He averaged 26.8% targets per route run and 1.76 yards per route run. Those are better stats than the actual WR1 for the team, Garrett Wilson, who averaged 24% TPRR and 1.55 YPRR.

It is hard to see how Breece Hall could finish any lower than he did last year. The offense was awful, having their average touchdown come from the 25-yard line. Historically, it has been one of the worst offenses in football.

The only thing that worked was to snap the ball, wait a second while the defensive line ran at the QB, then dump it off to Breece and see what he could do. That will not be how it works this year, especially if Aaron Rodgers can return to even part of his old self. They won’t dump the ball off to Breece on every play and see if he can do anything with it. Instead, he will get to be more of a traditional running back, getting carries that could be effective behind an offensive line that is massively improved. Last year, the O-line ran 31st, according to PFF, and had the second most injuries in the NFL. Currently, the offensive line ranks fifth, having signed two starting tackles and using their 11th overall pick on an offensive lineman.

Last year, the few times the Jets had a lead, they ran the ball 56% of the time, third in the NFL. That shows that the team wants to run the ball when they have the lead and let their defense help finish the game. If the offense is better, the line is as advertised, and the team gives Breece the same opportunity, there is very little chance Hall will not return on your investment. No one is behind him to threaten his opportunities, and his talent level is too high for him not to be great.

RB2 – Bijan Robinson (ATL)

Andy: RB3 | Jason: RB2 | Mike: RB3
ADP: 1.06 | RB2

The Atlanta offense is going to look completely different. Last year they lined up in 11-personnel on first down only 11% of the time and had a 58% rush rate on first down, meaning they were incredibly predictable and easy to game plan against. New OC Zac Robinson brings in the Rams’ style system, full of motion and variety of looks.

Last year when Bijan had the chance to run with three WRs on the field, meaning he had fewer defenders lined up to guard the run, he had the second-best yards per carry at 5.8. He only had 46 opportunities in that setup though. If we look at Kyren Williams‘ usage as a model for Bijan, he saw 223 attempts out of 11-personnel.

Bijan also excels as a pass catcher, being second among all RBs in routes run last year, and was fourth in receiving yards behind only CMC, Breece, and Rachaad White. Hall had 86 targets, which is seventh most all-time for a rookie RB, showing just what a weapon he can be as a three-down back. He does have a quality backup behind him in Tyler Allgeier, which could mean there are times he is off the field to rest which could frustrate fantasy managers.

The question for Bijan, compared to the other RBs around him, is what offense do you think will be the best? If you think the Jets make a big jump, then Breece might be the better option. If you think the new-look Falcons are going to be the best, then Bijan could finish as the RB1 just as easily as Breece. What is interesting about that conversation is that both teams have a QB coming off an Achilles injury.

It is hard to find a weakness in Bijan’s game as an RB. The only question is how good you think this new offense will be.  Last year he finished as the RB9, giving up tons of work to Allgeier, and being a part of an underwhelming offense. If Robinson gets more work in his second year, and the team improves, there is a clear path to him finishing as a top-two fantasy RB.

RB1 – Christian McCaffrey (SF)

Andy: RB1 | Jason: RB1 | Mike: RB1
ADP: 1.01 | RB1

There is not much to say in defending this ranking. McCaffrey has been the most dominant offensive weapon in fantasy football several times before. If healthy, he will score more than every fantasy player who isn’t a quarterback, and even outscore plenty of them.

Last year, McCaffrey set career highs in rushing yards at 1,459, yards per carry at 5.4, 10+ yard runs at 44, and total touchdowns at 21. He had 12 finishes inside the top 10 at RB last year; the following closest players had eight. Last year, CMC was one of only three RBs since 2017 to finish with at least 50% great games and 90% good games while posting 0% bust games. Those RBs were Todd Gurley in 2018, Christian McCaffrey in 2023, and Christian McCaffrey in 2019 when he was a better fantasy RB. He is so dominant it is hard to quantify.

The question comes down to health. McCaffrey is currently dealing with a calf injury and is missing two weeks of offseason practice for rest and rehab. Assuming he will be ahead of schedule like everyone is, he will return in time for the start of the season, and the reaggravation rate for RBs on calf injuries is pretty low. If he plays, you know he will be incredible, and if he doesn’t, we will see the frustration from the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

McCaffrey is a safe bet. The only player the Ballers say you could draft over him in standard leagues is Tyreek Hill. Otherwise, draft him at 1.01 and feel confident.