The Fantasy Footballers’ Busts & Values for 2024

Every fantasy football season, some high draft picks inevitably disappoint, while others taken later emerge as hidden gems. Identifying these busts and values is crucial to building a successful roster. Andy, Mike, and Jason have thoroughly analyzed the players who could either underperform or exceed their average draft position (ADP) in 2024. Values are those players who might slip in drafts, offering a potential steal if they fall to the right spot. Conversely, busts are high-risk players who may seem appealing but carry red flags that could lead to significant challenges. Understanding these dynamics can be the difference-maker in your upcoming fantasy drafts. Read on to discover who the Ballers have highlighted as this year’s top busts and values for the 2024 season, or listen to the episode wherever you get your podcasts!

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BUSTS

From the UDK: “These guys are not guaranteed to fail, but have some things working against them and represent a high-risk situation for fantasy managers. Things might look beautiful on the outside, but beware, and at least consider some of the bust candidates below as you assemble your fantasy football roster.”

Mike’s Pick – Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans

Andy: RB11 | Jason: RB15 | Mike: RB17
ADP: 4.08 | RB15

Mike’s main argument for picking Joe Mixon as a potential bust this season is that he is on the verge of breaking bad. To quote Jesse Pinkman, “he can’t keep getting away with this.” While it is undeniable that Mixon has been a consistent fantasy football performer, somehow finishing near the top of the leaderboard each season, his success has often been hard to watch. Mixon’s performance has largely been carried by sheer volume, even as his inefficiency metrics have steadily worsened. Despite his RB5 finish last season, he displayed some concerning red flags, including his lowest fantasy points per game average since 2019, the worst yards per route run of his career, and his worst yards after contact since his rookie year. Mixon also had just seven runs of 15+ yards on 299 carries. So, with all these inefficiencies, how did Mixon still manage to finish as the RB5?

It boils down to touchdowns and durability. Mixon led the league in carries inside the 10-yard line, scoring eight rushing touchdowns. However, this production came on 39 carries within that range, highlighting a lack of efficiency and explosiveness. An underrated key to a strong fantasy finish is simply staying on the field. Availability is often the best ability that a player can have. But if you exclude his Week 18 performance, Mixon would have finished as the RB13 in fantasy points per game average. So, while his fantasy season looked great on paper, a closer look reveals that many of his per-opportunity metrics were league-average or worse.

Looking ahead to 2024, it is important to consider how Mixon might fit into his new role with the Houston Texans. Running backs who thrive in Houston’s run scheme usually have a lot of juice, something Mixon’s declining efficiency metrics suggest he may lack. Additionally, Houston ranked near the bottom of the league in targets to running backs last season, which could further diminish Mixon’s fantasy potential. Mixon has benefited from playing in Cincinnati’s high-powered offense, and while Houston is expected to be another offensive powerhouse, Mike believes Mixon might be overvalued in drafts. Despite typically targeting starting running backs in elite offenses, Mike thinks there are better and safer options in Mixon’s draft range. Will Mixon keep getting away with it? Only time will tell.

Andy’s Pick – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Andy: WR43 | Jason: WR34 | Mike: WR38
ADP: 8.07 | WR47

Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s rookie season was marked by inconsistency, largely due to his underwhelming role in Seattle’s offense. Stuck behind the established DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, his path to becoming an instant fantasy football contributor was daunting. However, few expected his utilization to be as poor as it was. With a dismal average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.4 yards and leading all players in the percentage of targets behind the line of scrimmage, Smith-Njigba averaged just 37 receiving yards per game last season. In the first month of the season, he played only 52% of snaps and saw just 19 targets through six weeks.

Some might argue that a new coaching staff or scheme could revive Smith-Njigba’s career, while others point to his first-round draft capital and dominance at Ohio State as reasons for optimism. Yet, these factors may not be as important as the performance we witnessed last year. Smith-Njigba finished inside the top 24 at his position in just three weeks, with two of those being WR24 finishes. Such inconsistent play hardly inspires confidence in his potential to become a valuable fantasy asset anytime soon. Andy argues that there are better ways to utilize your flex spots, with players offering more upside than the lackluster Smith-Njigba. Why settle for a player who feels like a bunt when others out there are capable of being a home run?

Jason’s Pick – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals

Andy: WR10 | Jason: WR14 | Mike: WR11
ADP: 2.03  | WR9

Who would dare label perhaps the greatest wide receiver prospect of all time a bust before he even plays a single NFL snap? While Jason is confident that Marvin Harrison Jr. will have a legendary career with his Arizona Cardinals, he questions whether his draft price is too high relative to his expected production in 2024. Jason ranks Harrison Jr. as his WR14, which would place him in the late second to early third round of drafts. However, Harrison Jr. is currently being drafted as if he is already an elite fantasy asset, often going at the end of the first round or early in the second. This is by far the earliest a rookie wide receiver has ever been drafted in fantasy football history. While Harrison Jr.’s potential as an immediate fantasy contributor is clear, it is crucial to consider the opportunity cost of selecting him at his current WR9 draft price.

Over the last six years, a top 10 fantasy wide receiver has averaged:

• 148 Targets
• 101 Receptions
• 1,366 Receiving Yards
• 9.6 Receiving TDs
• 15.5 Fantasy PPG (0.5 PPR)

Focusing more on the specific draft range of Harrison Jr., below is what the WR6-WR10 has averaged in the last six years: 

• 139 Targets
• 95 Receptions
• 1,234 Receiving Yards
• 8.6 Receiving TDs
• 13.9 Fantasy PPG (0.5 PPR)

While these averages might seem attainable, they represent the bare minimum that you are hoping a player drafted in this range can achieve. Even if Harrison Jr. has an impressive rookie season, surpassing 1,000 receiving yards and scoring over five touchdowns, his performance would still fall well short of these averages, making him a disappointing pick. It is also important to consider the opportunity cost of his current ADP. At the spot where Harrison Jr. is being drafted, you could select more proven fantasy assets like running backs Kyren Williams, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Travis Etienne, or Isiah Pacheco. Additionally, several wide receivers taken rounds after Harrison Jr. are projected to deliver similar production, including proven options like Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, and Cooper Kupp. There is no denying Harrison Jr.’s potential or his likelihood of becoming an elite fantasy asset, but drafting him as if he already is one in his rookie year may not be the wisest move.

VALUES

From the UDK: “Players who represent a good draft day value. These aren’t guys you should be reaching for, but rather guys who will drop to where they shouldn’t. When you draft these guys at their current Average Draft Position, we feel you’ll be getting a steal.”

Mike’s Pick – Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns

Andy: RB24 | Jason: RB39 | Mike: RB34
ADP: 10.12 | RB40

Mike’s value pick for the season is a player who quite literally embodies the term “built Ford tough.” Despite having a clear path to starting the upcoming season strong, Jerome Ford remains highly undervalued in drafts. After Nick Chubb suffered a devastating knee injury in Week 2 last season, Ford emerged as Cleveland’s most reliable running back, sharing the backfield with Kareem Hunt. While Ford did not deliver explosive, game-winning performances, he was remarkably consistent, finishing as a top 24 running back 11 times. This was one more than Breece Hall had last season. He also outperformed Saquon Barkley in receptions and ranked second only to Christian McCaffrey with five receiving touchdowns, highlighting his versatility.

Ford averaged nearly 16 opportunities per game last year and ranked third on the Browns in targets per route run. Yet, he is currently being drafted as the RB40 at the end of the 10th round, as if Nick Chubb were fully healthy and poised to reclaim the workload. The reality is that Chubb is expected to miss a few games to start the season, and it is still uncertain how long it will take for him to regain the form needed to demand a high volume of touches. Even if Ford’s window of opportunity lasts just four weeks, he could deliver RB2 value during that stretch. This is an impressive return for someone being treated as a benchwarmer in drafts. He is currently being selected alongside insurance policy running backs who may not even see the field early in the season.

Ford is the perfect target if you prioritize other positions early in your draft. There is also a real possibility that Chubb might not return to his previous form, positioning Ford as the running back to own in Cleveland for the entire season.

Andy’s Pick – Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders

Andy: RB29 | Jason: RB29 | Mike: RB30
ADP: 9.08 | RB34

When it comes to finding value, Andy believes he might have struck gold with Brian Robinson Jr. Though Robinson Jr. might not seem like the most exciting pick, he proved to be a tremendous value last season despite similar skepticism. Just how good was he to start last season? From Weeks 1-11, he was the RB4 in fantasy football, averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game with 15.5 opportunities per game. So, what happened in the second half of the year? A lingering hamstring injury following the team’s Week 14 bye derailed his breakout.

Even with just a strong first half, the metrics show Robinson Jr. made significant strides in his second NFL season. He ranked ninth among all running backs, converting 26% of his carries into first downs or touchdowns. He also excelled in an area many doubted when he was entering the league: the passing game. Robinson Jr. generated the highest quarterback rating when targeted among all running backs last season and averaged 1.68 yards per route run, ranking fifth in the league.

Looking ahead to the upcoming season, Washington made a notable change in the backfield, replacing Antonio Gibson with Austin Ekeler. While Ekeler’s name might raise eyebrows, he is simply not the player he once was, and Robinson Jr. has more explosiveness and physicality as the team’s best big-bodied back. There may be some concern about Ekeler stealing passing-down work, but it should not be a major worry. Additionally, the arrival of Offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury could be a game-changer for Robinson Jr. Under Kingsbury in Arizona, primary running backs consistently posted double-digit touchdown seasons, even with a mobile quarterback like Kyler Murray. This is crucial as Robinson Jr. will be running behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who is expected to be extremely mobile as well. As a late ninth-round pick, Robinson Jr. offers tremendous upside and could be an absolute steal for your team this year.

Jason’s Pick – George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

Andy: TE9 | Jason: TE6 | Mike: TE5
ADP: 6.01 | TE7

Jason’s value pick for the season might be a more familiar name, but that does not diminish the fact that he represents an incredible draft value this year. While Andy and Mike highlighted potential sleeper picks at great prices, Jason wanted to spotlight a player who could vastly outperform his current ADP and help you win your championship. After years of steering clear of George Kittle, Jason now believes the stars have aligned for Kittle to be a potential league-winner in 2024. Despite Kittle’s well-earned reputation as one of the league’s top tight ends, he is often seen as a boom-or-bust option in fantasy football, with the added stigma of being injury-prone. However, the upcoming season offers more promise for Kittle, and the concerns that have shadowed him may be exaggerated.

This year, many fantasy drafters are focusing on securing one of the top five tight ends, typically targeting Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid. This trend has caused highly talented players like Kittle to slip down draft boards, even after coming off of tremendous seasons. But let’s take a closer look at just how good Kittle was last season. Kittle has finished as a top-five tight end in five of the last six seasons and is coming off a standout 2023 campaign where he finished as the TE5. He led all tight ends with 1,020 receiving yards and topped the position in plays of 20+ yards (18), 30+ yards (8), 40+ yards (3), and 50+ yards (2). Kittle also recorded the longest play by a tight end last season, a 66-yard touchdown. Furthermore, he ranked fifth in yards per route run and top 10 in yards after the catch per reception, highlighting his explosive playmaking ability. Kittle has all the skills and intangibles to be a dominant fantasy asset year after year.

Given these stats, it is reasonable to expect Kittle to finish as a top-five tight end once again in 2024. Yet, he is not being drafted like one. After years of being a top-three selection at the position, Kittle’s ADP is now the lowest of his career. If Brandon Aiyuk were to be traded, Kittle could realistically contend for the overall TE1 spot in fantasy football. Even with Aiyuk on the roster, Kittle is set to outperform his sixth-round draft cost as the TE7. He has shown greater consistency with Brock Purdy at quarterback, with over 50% of his fantasy performances being in double digits when Purdy is under center. This increased consistency, paired with his week-winning potential and career-low draft cost, makes Kittle a smash pick for the upcoming season.

Want more fantasy advice for the upcoming season? The team has compiled all of our best tips & tricks into a book available on Amazon, Fantasy Football Unleashed: 55 Tips, Tricks & Ways to Win at Fantasy Football.