The struggle in dynasty fantasy football often revolves around balancing short-term needs with long-term potential.
This brings up the following questions:
- How do you navigate the delicate balance between building a championship roster and ensuring its sustainability for the years to come?
- How long should you wait for a player to break out in the NFL?
- Or, when should you trade away a proven veteran for a promising rookie, even if it means sacrificing immediate production?
In the Dynasty Lifecycle series, we attempt to answer these questions by leveraging historical data (provided by @Stathead) to understand the peaks and valleys of an NFL player. For each position, let’s focus on these key numbers to accomplish the following:
- Evaluating the Draft Capital
- Finding the Breakout
- Avoiding the Decline
- Mapping the Lifecycle
If you have any questions, reach out on Twitter @FF_MarvinE!
Evaluating the Draft Capital
As with any skill position, draft capital continues to be the strongest indicator of success in the league. While there will always be outliers, there is a clear trend that day one and two prospects are the much safer investments in your dynasty leagues.
The impact of draft capital can be evaluated in multiple ways. One simple approach is to calculate the breakout (or hit) rates for each round or group. In this analysis, a fantasy point threshold is used to define a breakout performance. For the chart presented, a threshold of 11.0 half-PPR points was used, which is based on the average WR24 performance over the last two decades. This metric is calculated by dividing the number of players who met or exceeded the threshold by the total number of players drafted in each round.
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