The struggle in dynasty fantasy football often revolves around balancing short-term needs with long-term potential.
This brings up the following questions:
- How do you navigate the delicate balance between building a championship roster and ensuring its sustainability for the years to come?
- How long should you wait for a player to break out in the NFL?
- Or, when should you trade away a proven veteran for a promising rookie, even if it means sacrificing immediate production?
In the Dynasty Lifecycle series, we attempt to answer these questions by leveraging historical data (provided by @Stathead) to understand the peaks and valleys of an NFL player. For each position, let’s focus on these key numbers to accomplish the following:
- Evaluating the Draft Capital
- Finding the Breakout
- Avoiding the Decline
- Mapping the Lifecycle
If you have any questions, reach out on Twitter @FF_MarvinE!
Evaluating the Draft Capital
A player’s career almost always starts with the NFL draft, as draft capital remains one of the strongest signals for success in the league. While there are certainly outliers, we continue to see a clear trend that first-round prospects have the highest likelihood of breaking out in the NFL. Intuitively, this makes sense considering first-round prospects are a significant investment for a team, meaning they are likely to receive more playing time early in their careers.
The impact of draft capital on fantasy performance can be evaluated in several ways. One simple approach is to look at the breakout (or hit) rates for each round. In this analysis, a fantasy point threshold is used to define a breakout performance. For the chart presented, a threshold of 11.5 half-PPR points was used, which corresponds to the average RB24 performance over the last two decades. This metric is calculated by dividing the number of players who met or exceeded the threshold by the total number of players drafted in each round.
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