Ten Things We Learned in Week 10 (Fantasy Football)

It was a wild Week 10 of NFL action starting with Thursday night’s barn burner and moving into a Sunday full of surprises. The Chiefs remain undefeated by way of a blocked field goal at the end of the game, the Saints got a win despite missing most of the team, and the Lions overcame five Jared Goff interceptions to win Sunday night. And of course, the fantasy implications from this weekend’s slate of games are extremely important. Time to digest what we saw in Week 10 and learn how to apply those lessons moving forward through the remainder of the fantasy football season.

Welcome Back, CMC

The undisputed king of fantasy football made his triumphant return to the field Sunday after a long 10 weeks of eager anticipation. And to the delight of fantasy managers across the globe, Christian McCaffrey stepped right back into his dominant role, handling almost all of the RB rushing attempts and getting seven targets. And despite the relatively quiet game in terms of his usual standards, CMC is still the RB11 on the week in half-PPR scoring (going into Monday night) without a touchdown and only 39 rushing yards. There was hesitation about how much work he’d get in his first game back, but it’s clear already that he’s going to get the majority of the touches in the backfield moving forward. Fantasy managers who hung tight are about to reap the rewards of their patience.

Changes in Denver’s RB Room

It was a tough day for Javonte Williams on Sunday, who saw just one carry and two targets on 17 total snaps, a season-low. He hadn’t seen less than 35 snaps until this week. Rookie Audric Estime got the lion’s share of the work, rushing 14 times for 53 yards on 45% of snaps. It’s hard to trust any running back in Denver right now, but it feels like Estime is the back to roster. Still, it will be hard to throw Estime into starting lineups until we see a pattern of usage over the next couple of games. There are some smash matchups coming up for Denver, so it would be ideal if Estime establishes himself as the main runner, but it’s too difficult to tell at the moment.

Diontae Johnson‘s Minimal Usage in Baltimore

Diontae Johnson has made a name for himself as a target hog, racking up receptions over the course of his career in Pittsburgh and a brief stint in Carolina. So far after two games in Baltimore, he has one catch for six yards and played just five snaps Thursday night. Nelson Agholor is still logging close to 50% of snaps weekly and Tylan Wallace, who had seven career receptions since 2021 going into this year, is seeing more snaps than Johnson. This could be a situation where Baltimore’s coaching staff is trying to ease Johnson into the system and let him heal up from injuries that have hampered him all year, or he might end up just being fifth or sixth in the pecking order. Hold Johnson for now, but if this week ends up being another dud, he can be dropped in redraft leagues.

Coaches Frustrating for Fantasy

As we highlighted last week, we knew Tyler Allgeier was going to continue to get work in Atlanta’s offense, but Bijan Robinson actually maintained upwards of a 70% snap count and even saw a season-high 61 total snaps. The baffling part was watching Atlanta give the ball to Allgeier three times in a row at the goal line only for him to be stuffed each time. When Robinson came in on fourth down, he of course scored the touchdown. We saw something similar in Dallas, who decided to give Ezekiel Elliott a goal-line opportunity after Rico Dowdle had been running well all game. Zeke fumbled the ball and cost Dallas a score, which pretty much set the wheels in motion for a blowout loss. And after the Cowboys got the ball back in Philadelphia territory, they gave the ball back to Zeke! Now I get there is a lot that goes into coaching, more than I’ll ever comprehend, but is it really that difficult to put in your best player when in scoring position? The Cowboys were only down 7-3 when Zeke fumbled and could have taken the lead. Instead, they scored just three more points the rest of the game. I know coaches don’t care about our fantasy teams, but this isn’t smart football for their own sake.

Ridley Trending up Rest of Season

Don’t look now, but Calvin Ridley is the WR3 over the last three weeks with 50.3 total points in half-PPR formats. Andy didn’t have to do it, but he made Ridley his second-half sleeper, and he’s been right on the money with that prediction. In those three games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, Ridley is averaging a 34% target share and 100 receiving yards per game. Those numbers would rank him as the WR1 and WR2 over the course of the season, respectively. The return of Will Levis in Week 10 looked like they improved Ridley’s touchdown opportunities as well, scoring for the first time since Week 2. The schedule is mouthwatering for Ridley the rest of the season and he should go back into lineups with confidence.

What to Make of MVS

After Ja’Marr Chase‘s record-setting performance Thursday night, the next best wideout for fantasy this week was Marquez Valdes-Scantling. MVS only caught three passes but turned those catches into 109 yards and two touchdowns, good for 24.4 fantasy points. In only his second game with New Orleans, MVS saw 55% of snaps and could very well be the Saints’ WR1 moving forward. But don’t fall into the trap. MVS has a track record of being a boom-or-bust player and can’t be relied upon as a weekly starter in fantasy lineups. He might be worth a speculative add if you have a roster spot, but he’s more of a DFS play than a weekly start. That being said, the opportunity will be there with some favorable matchups coming up and no other pass-catchers of note on the Saints with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed out.

Gus Edwards Returns

The Chargers welcomed back Gus Edwards after a stint on IR and he saw 10 carries to 15 for J.K. Dobbins on Sunday. Edwards looked spry, rushing for 55 yards on those carries while playing 15 total snaps. Edwards and Dobbins were splitting opportunities to start the season, but Dobbins had a few highlight runs that vaulted him into a weekly strong RB2 play. The fear is with Edwards back, both players fall into the risky flex category instead of one of them standing out as a weekly RB2 play. It also spells the end to Kimani Vidal “Sassoon” as an insurance back, who was a healthy scratch on Sunday.

Hopkins’ Impact on Mahomes

Has the addition of DeAndre Hopkins helped bring Patrick Mahomes back to fantasy relevance? It sure seems like it. In three games with the Chiefs, Hopkins has 14 receptions for 171 yards and two touchdowns. In six games with the Titans, he had 15 catches for 173 yards and a score. He literally recorded the same statistical output in half the amount of games since joining the Chiefs. And his arrival has been a blessing for Mahomes, who is the QB7 over those three games with Hopkins. Mahomes was the QB22 from the start of the season to Week 7. We yearn for the days of old when Mahomes was a top-three fantasy quarterback, but it had been so bad as of late that he was barely even in the streamer category. Fantasy managers will gladly take top-10 weekly QB finishes for the rest of the season. With Hopkins on board, Mahomes goes back to his fantasy starter role, especially with two juicy matchups against the Panthers and Raiders over the next three weeks.

Wide Receiver Woes in Chicago Continue

It was another unforgettable week for the Chicago Bears, who lost to the Patriots 19-3 in a slog of a game. D.J. Moore has just two games with double-digit fantasy points this year in half-PPR formats and has all but vanished over the last four games with 17.9 total fantasy points (WR82). Rome Odunze is the WR56 so far, also with just two games logging double-digit fantasy points. Keenan Allen is the WR76 on the year with one WR1 performance in Week 6 and hasn’t surpassed seven fantasy points in any other game. All three wide receivers, even Moore at this point, should stay on fantasy benches until we see improvement. And there’s a good chance that improvement won’t come with two matchups against the Vikings and a game against the 49ers over the next five weeks.

Kyler Keeps Climbing

A popular QB sleeper pick among the fantasy community, Kyler Murray got off to a relatively slow start that had some fantasy managers slightly concerned. Murray was the QB10 through the first four weeks of the season with only one eye-popping performance in Week 2. But Murray has recorded 20+ points in three of the last four games including a dominating QB4 outing on Sunday against the Jets. His connection to Marvin Harrison Jr. is starting to solidify and Trey McBride continues to be one of the most reliable tight ends in the game. And he’s coming off his first game with multiple rushing touchdowns of the season. The remaining schedule is delightful for Murray—he even gets to avoid the 49ers in (most) fantasy championships, playing the Rams in Week 17.