SR’s FAB 5: Liam Coen’s Future With The Bucs

INTRO: The Bucs have a much-needed bye this weekend, and there’s a lot to discuss with the team needing to just about win out the rest of the season in order to qualify for the playoffs. How the season ends will determine Todd Bowles’ future in Tampa Bay, but it seems like offensive coordinator Liam Coen isn’t going anywhere. Enjoy this week’s SR’s Fab 5!

FAB 1. Liam Coen’s Future With The Bucs

It looked bleak for Todd Bowles last year. The head coach’s job was on the line at this time last year as the Bucs were 4-6 prior to a loss at Indianapolis in Week 12 to fall to 4-7. To Bowles’ credit, Tampa Bay won five of its last six games to finish 9-8 and win another division championship while saving Bowles’ job in the process.

Here were are again, and the expectation for Bowles this year is to show progress, according to the Glazers. But what exactly does that does that mean? The Glazers weren’t specific when asked at the NFL annual meeting in March.

Progress likely means winning 10 games in the regular season – after winning nine last year – and at least another playoff berth. The Glazers would prefer that come with a fourth straight NFC South championship, but the Bucs are currently three games behind the division-leading Falcons right now and don’t control their own destiny.

So getting in as a 10-game wild card and winning on the road seems like a must for Bowles to keep his job. With a very favorable schedule ahead coming out of the bye, 10 wins does seem attainable unless the Bucs blow it in a game they should win against the Giants, Panthers, Raiders, Cowboys or Saints.

While there is a curiosity about Bowles’ future in Tampa Bay moving forward, what Bucs fans are really interested in the future of offensive coordinator Liam Coen.

It’s all over social media channels like X and it’s a constant question and topic in the Pewter Report Podcasts.

What’s going to happen to Coen if Bowles is fired after the 2024 season?

That’s a completely understandable question that deserves some attention, right?

As much as Bucs fans liked offensive coordinator Dave Canales last year, they absolutely love Coen.

As they should.

Coen’s offense was scoring 30 points per game at the start of the season until he lost star wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in a 41-31 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football. Even without Evans and Godwin over the next two weeks, Tampa Bay’s offense still scored 24 points against Atlanta and at Kansas City. The Bucs also put up 20 versus the 49ers last week.

Oh, and Coen also has resurrected the Bucs’ long-dead running game in part with his hiring of offensive line coaches Kevin Carberry and Brian Picucci. No wonder he’s the darling of the Tampa Bay fan base right now.

I’ve got some good news to share with you. Don’t worry.

Coen isn’t going anywhere.

Either the Bucs turn their season around (again) and get to the playoffs and Bowles stays with Coen as his play-caller, or they don’t make the progress the Glazers expect and Bowles is fired. Then, Coen likely gets promoted to head coach at Bowles’ expense.

Even if the team makes the playoffs and does well and the Bucs initially decide to keep Bowles and other teams want to interview Coen for their head coaching vacancies, I could see the Glazers step in and remove Bowles and promote Coen.

Let me be clear. I don’t have any inside information about the Glazers’ plans nor have I talked to general manager Jason Licht about this (not that he would share any future plans anyway).

But what I do have is 29 years worth of experience covering Tampa Bay as the Glazers bought the team in 1995, which was my first year on the Bucs beat. I’ve seen this movie before and I have a pretty good idea about what is likely to happen.

In January of 2009, the Glazers fired head coach Jon Gruden (and general manager Bruce Allen) 17 days after the end of the 2008 season. In part because Bucs ownership had lost faith in Gruden, but also because defensive backs coach Raheem Morris, who was in line to be the team’s defensive coordinator and replace Monte Kiffin, was getting interest around the league.

Denver had interviewed the 33-year old Morris for the team’s head coaching job and the Glazers were afraid of losing what they saw as the next, young Mike Tomlin. At least that’s how ownership viewed Morris, whose mentor was Tomlin when he was the Bucs’ defensive backs coach in Tampa Bay from 2001-05.

So Gruden was fired and replaced by Morris.

In 2015, the Bucs had just spent the No. 1 overall draft pick on quarterback Jameis Winston, who had a promising rookie season alongside offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. When head coach Lovie Smith, who was also the defensive play-caller, went 6-10 after a 2-14 season in first year at the helm, the Bucs fired Smith and promoted Koetter to the role of head coach. The Glazers and Licht prioritized continuity on offense with Koetter and Winston continuing to work together.

It seems like these scenarios is playing out again, doesn’t it?

Coen is 39 years old and is becoming regarded as one of the young, up-and-coming play-callers around the league, and with good reason. He’s bright, creative, adaptive and spent years learning under Sean McVay out in Los Angeles.

Bowles is about to turn 61 and has presided over one of the worst defenses in the NFL this year. It’s a defense that is comprised of three first-rounders, three second-rounders, three third-rounders and a couple of Day 3 hits. There’s plenty of talent that isn’t being coached and developed properly.

The Glazers were fearful of losing the next Tomlin back in 2009, and I have a feeling they would be fearful of losing the next McVay in Coen the way things or going.

I also have no idea if Coen thinks he’s ready to be a head coach or even wants to take on that challenge right now. He might be like Canales and leap at the first opportunity, knowing that those opportunities don’t come around often. Or Coen might be like Detroit’s Ben Johnson, who is happy being the Lions offensive coordinator for the time being and inching closer to a Super Bowl appearance in Detroit.

I would think that Coen would want the opportunity to stay in Tampa Bay and continue to work with Baker Mayfield, a very talented offensive line, and an offense that has plenty of skill players in Evans, Godwin, tight end Cade Otton and a trio of stud running backs in Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.

And I think that happens in 2025 – either as Bowles’ offensive coordinator, the next coach’s offensive coordinator or perhaps in the role of head coach replacing Bowles if the Bucs fail to make the playoffs.

The Glazers aren’t stupid. Liam Coen isn’t getting away from Tampa Bay.

FAB 2. There’s No Reason – On Paper – The Bucs Should Finish Worse Than 6-1

The Bucs’ chances of winning games and snapping the team’s four-game winning streak get significantly better after the bye week.

On paper.

But football games aren’t won on paper. Just ask the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons, who came into Week 10 with a 6-3 record before being upset by the previously 2-7 Saints in New Orleans, 20-17.

The best teams don’t always win on Sundays – or Mondays or Thursdays – in the NFL. But the 4-6 Bucs will likely be thought of as the better team and could favored in all but one game following the bye week. The 6-3 Chargers will almost assuredly be the favorite to beat the Bucs at home in Los Angeles in Week 15, but that’s the only team with a winning record that Tampa Bay will face.

On paper, the Bucs should have a decided advantage over most of their opponents, statistically speaking. Tampa Bay is facing a lot of woeful offenses down the stretch, which should help considering how bad the defense has played this year. And the Bucs offense will be going up against plenty of terrible defenses so there should be opportunities for Liam Coen’s side of the ball to put up plenty of points.

Here’s where the Bucs currently stand in terms of league rankings right now.

Bucs: Total offense – Eighth (361.5 avg.) / Scoring offense – Fifth (27.9 avg.)
Bucs: Total defense – 31st (389.3 avg.) / Scoring defense – 28th (26.6 avg.)

Tampa Bay is very lopsided right now with the offense the clear strength of the team – even without star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – while the defense is certainly the weakness.

Now let’s take a statistical look at the defenses that Coen and the Bucs offense will face over the remaining seven games.

Week 12 Giants: Total defense – 17th (331.3 avg.) / Scoring defense – 15th (22.2 avg.)
Week 13 Panthers: Total defense – 30th (386.9 avg.) / Scoring defense – 32nd (31 avg.)
Week 14 Raiders: Total defense – 15th (325 avg.) / Scoring defense – 30th (27.9 avg.)
Week 15 Chargers: Total defense – Sixth (302.1 avg.) / Scoring defense – First (13.1 avg.)
Week 16 Cowboys: Total defense – 26th (362.9 avg.) / Scoring defense – 31st (28.8 avg.)
Week 17 Panthers: Total defense – 30th (386.9 avg.) / Scoring defense – 32nd (31 avg.)
Week 18 Saints: Total defense – 28th (385.6 avg.) / Scoring defense – 24th (24.6 avg.)

Five of the last seven games of the 2024 season feature defenses that are in the bottom third of the league, including the worst three scoring defenses in Las Vegas (30th), Dallas (31st) and Carolina (32nd) twice. This seems to bode quite well for Baker Mayfield and Co.

And the good news for Todd Bowles’ side of the ball is that the Bucs face some of the worst offenses in the league down the stretch.

Week 12 Giants: Total offense – 23th (309.7 avg.) / Scoring offense – 32nd (15.6 avg.)
Week 13 Panthers: Total offense – 28th (280.7 avg.) / Scoring offense – 28th (16.7 avg.)
Week 14 Raiders: Total offense – 29th (280.2 avg.) / Scoring offense – 25th (18.7 avg.)
Week 15 Chargers: Total offense – 22nd (314.3 avg.) / Scoring offense – 19th (20.7 avg.)
Week 16 Cowboys: Total offense – 21st (315 avg.) / Scoring offense – 23rd (19.7 avg.)
Week 17 Panthers: Total offense – 28th (280.7 avg.) / Scoring offense – 28th (16.7 avg.)
Week 18 Saints: Total offense – 16th (334.8 avg.) / Scoring offense – 16th (22.7 avg.)

Five of the remaining games feature offenses that are in the bottom third in points scored this season. Tampa Bay’s end-of-season schedule sets up nicely for Coen’s offense to put up points and for Bowles’ defense to get well against some less formidable offenses.

The Bucs have no business finishing any worse than 6-1 with a possible forgivable loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles. Now it’s up to Bowles and Co. to not blow Tampa Bay’s chances at another late-season playoff push by losing to a team they have no business losing to.

FAB 3. Todd Bowles’ Curious Decision To Give His Team The Week Off

After Sunday’s 23-20 loss to the 49ers, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles decided to give his players extra time to rest and recover and get away from football. That move seems rather curious coming off a four-game losing streak in which his defense has given up an average of 31.3 points per game.

NFL rules state that teams must give the players four consecutive days off during the bye week. That typically means Thursday through Sunday. Some teams reward players with an extra day off if they win heading into the bye week.

With so much to fix on defense heading into a vital seven-game stretch in which the Bucs probably have to win six of them to position themselves for the playoffs, it’s kind of crazy that Bowles decided to give his players Wednesday off – coming on the heels of Tuesday, which is the players’ day off.

In no way am I advocating that Bowles should’ve had the Bucs conduct a full practice during the bye week. That would be foolish given how banged up the team is.

But a full day’s worth of classroom work watching film together, or at least a walk-through to tighten up coverage and prevent some of the miscommunication issues that have plagued the defense would seem to be a good use of time. And that could’ve been accomplished while giving the players’ bodies a chance to rest.

The Bucs are having a bonus walk-through practice on Monday before the players’ day off on Tuesday, but that’s coming off five straight days off. That walk-through practice could’ve happened on Wednesday and then the Bucs could’ve watched film together on Monday and had a classroom meeting day. Coming off a four-game losing streak, I would think the Bucs could use as much practice time as possible.

For a team that is three games behind division-leading Atlanta and two games below .500, I don’t think giving extra days off is necessarily wise or warranted. An all-hands-on-deck sense of urgency seemed more appropriate given the issues on Bowles’ side of the ball.

FAB 4. Bucs Have Been On The Losing End Of Too Many One-Score Games

It’s normal for most NFL games to come down to the final drive. That’s been the case in five of the Bucs’ 10 games this year. Yet Tampa Bay is 1-4 in one-score games this season.

The team’s lone one-score win was in Week 2 at Detroit, 20-16. Since then, the Bucs have lost twice to Atlanta – 36-30 in overtime and 31-26 – in addition to a 30-24 loss at Kansas City in overtime and last week’s 23-20 loss at home to San Francisco. Close games like these typically come down to coaching decisions and clutch execution.

Todd Bowles’ defense has been on the field surrendering the game-winning score in three of the team’s defeats, while Liam Coen’s offense couldn’t score a go-ahead touchdown against Atlanta at home in the 31-26 loss in Week 8.

One poster on a Bucs Reddit page came up with an interesting graphic. Flipping the outcomes in each of the one-score games would produce a 7-3 record for Tampa Bay instead of the team’s 4-6 record.

That’s a three-win swing. And it underscores the importance of better end-of-game clock management, play calls and execution in crunch time.

FAB 5. Bucs Should Emphasize End-Of-Game Situations – For An Entire Practice

I heard something this past week that I wish I could quote or find a clip on. Apparently former Bucs and Patriots quarterback Tom Brady told a story about New England preparing for Peyton Manning and the high-powered Colts offense years ago and how former New England head coach Bill Belichick had the defense do nothing but red zone work in practice that week.

He knew the Patriots defense would have a hard time slowing down Manning and the Colts offense from racking up the yards between the 20s. Belichick told his defense that they had to make a stand in the red zone in order to beat the Colts. That meant not allowing touchdowns and forcing Manning and Indianapolis to have to settle for field goals.

I apologize that I can’t recall which season Brady was referring to, but apparently it worked. The Patriots played great red zone defense and beat the Colts that week because of it.

With the Bucs struggling with a 1-4 mark in end-of-game situations, perhaps Todd Bowles should try this unconventional method for at least a practice. Simply do an hour-and-a-half of nothing but end-of-game situations. The entire practice simulating different two-minute situations on offense and defense.

Doing so would create a greater sense of urgency for the Bucs as a result and probably get the players’ attention that losing games at the end has cost Tampa Bay a chance at having a winning record. Emphasizing end-of-game situations might help an offense that couldn’t close out a win at Atlanta, score a come-from-behind touchdown versus the Falcons in Tampa Bay and score a touchdown rather than a field goal at the end against San Francisco.

And for Bowles’ defense, which has been on the field giving up the final score in overtime losses at Atlanta and at Kansas City and on the field for the game-winning kick last Sunday, it certainly would help, too. But unfortunately I sense that Bowles is too much of a traditionalist to try something as radical as this approach.

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