Rookie Review Show! + Second-Year Outlooks, Mystery Boxes

Summary:

Rookie Review Show Discussion 00:00

• Rookie performance evaluations and future expectations are the focus of the show.
• The hosts are engaged in banter about past events like the Super Bowl and the halftime show.
• Laughter ensues over memorable incidents, like J.J. Watt’s hair change.
• The hosts share humorous moments and observations related to recent events.

“We’re here, we’ve got a show we’re going to do, we’re all excited for it.”

Maximizing Rookie Pick Value 09:01

• To maximize a rookie pick’s value, consider trading away high picks like the 1st or 2nd overall if you lack conviction in a particular player since rookies are often seen as unpredictable assets.
• Avoid succumbing to the pressure of following popular consensus in rookie drafts; instead, focus on players you truly believe in to avoid potential regrets.
• While exciting landing spots can increase a rookie player’s appeal, it’s essential to balance this excitement with a realistic assessment of the player to make informed drafting decisions.

“Rookie picks are always what’s in the box—it could be a boat instead of getting a player who you know is in a good situation.”

Reflecting on Quentin Johnston‘s Example 10:13

• Quinten Johnson serves as a cautionary example of how landing spot hype and draft capital can overshadow a player’s actual potential.
• Despite excitement around Johnson’s connection to Justin Herbert and high draft pedigree, historical odds suggest his success is against him, emphasizing the importance of evaluating beyond initial hype.

“The draft capital and the spot made it so appealing, but the odds are historically now against him.”

Importance of Early Draft Class Insights 12:37

• Accessing early insights on upcoming draft classes allows fantasy football managers to anticipate potential superstar players and maximize the value of their draft picks.
• Recognizing the tiers of talent in a draft class can help in defining the varying values of picks, emphasizing the advantage of having early knowledge in dynasty league strategies.

“Getting in earlier on that expectation is how you maximize those picks.”

Rookie Review and Comparison of Bryce Young and CJ Stroud 17:37

• Bryce Young faced challenges in his rookie season, failing to deliver on his accuracy and field vision strengths.
• In contrast, CJ Stroud showcased consistent playmaking abilities, maintaining accuracy and excelling in yardage.
• The stark difference in performance between Young and Stroud prompts a debate on their long-term fantasy potential.

When we were doing the Dynasty startup rankings, I had a really difficult time with Bryce Young… this isn’t going to work… trying not to be too quick to bury him. 18:53

Second-Year Outlooks for Quarterback Prospects 19:51

• CJ Stroud‘s standout rookie season places him in a favorable position compared to other rookie quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson and Will Levis.
• Stroud’s consistent performance, high yardage, and ability to support top wide receivers give fantasy owners confidence in his future.
• Anthony Richardson‘s potential as a dual-threat quarterback excites some analysts, with his running ability seen as a valuable fantasy asset.
• Will Levis showed flashes but lacked consistency, making him less of a fantasy priority compared to Stroud and Richardson.

The contrast between Bryce Young and CJ Stroud is so profound…So that shouldn’t be taken lightly…I’m on the Will Levis side for fantasy purposes. 19:51

Rookie Running Back Review 25:59

• Rookie running backs can be a solid investment in fantasy football in their first season, with the potential for good returns even if not all pan out as expected.
• Charbonnet’s limited opportunities in his rookie year behind Kenneth Walker raise questions about his future relevance and draft position.
• Miller, drafted after Charbonnet, is seen as a promising bet due to his potential and flashes of skill despite his limited opportunities in the previous season.

“Rookie running backs are usually a solid bet.”

Rookie Review: Tyjae Spears Potential 34:04

• Jamal Williams had 126 opportunities, suggesting he might not hold his spot on the depth chart ahead of Tajé Spears.
• Tajé Spears, a third-round pick, finished as RB35 with 100 carries, sparking curiosity about his future performance.
• Spears showcased strong stats as a rookie: 50+ receptions, over 50% snaps in 12 games, and 4.5 yards per carry, hinting at his fantasy potential.

“If he gets the job, he’ll be all right for fantasy.”

Tyjae Spears Outlook: Ceiling and Floor 36:25

• Spears’ ceiling could be a Rashad White-type season if he becomes the primary back.
• His floor scenario involves the team drafting a replacement, shifting offensive strategies, and minimal scoring opportunities.
• Betting on Spears involves assessing his riskiness, with high potential rewards if he secures the starting role after Henry’s departure.

“The floor is low. The ceiling is high. I’m betting on Tajé Spears.”

De’Von Achane: Performance and Future Expectations 38:05

• Devon H.Han had impressive stats with 100 carries, 800 yards, and 8 touchdowns, despite missing several games due to injury.
• His ability to break for long runs, coupled with his young age of 22, reflects immense potential for growth and continued success in his career.

“At his current age, he’s 22 years old, I think, you’re not yet to his prime.”

Fantasy Running Back Outlooks 41:36

• Devon H.N. averaged 16.1 points per game, but this included fluctuating performances, from a massive 49-point game to a couple of one-point outings.
• Doubts linger over whether he can sustain his impressive 7.8 yards per carry, with comparisons drawn to Jamal Charles, emphasizing the need for consistency and staying healthy.

“I’m not taking him with the one-on-one to not miss any time and lead the NFL in rushing.”

Tank Bigsby Disappointment and Future Prospects 43:23

• Tank Bigsby underperformed, with multiple fumbles and poor stats, significantly impacting his team.
• His lackluster performance raises concerns about his viability moving forward, especially given the disappointing season and his negative influence on the team.

“It was like when he got in the game, he just fumbled it right to the other team.”

Rochson Johnson vs. Tank Bigsby Comparison 46:03

• Roshan Johnson showcased potential with his opportunities, outshining Tank Bigsby in productivity and reliability.
• Johnson’s versatility and glimpses of solid performance position him as a more favorable option than Tank Bigsby for the future.

“I would certainly rather have Roshan than Tank Bigsby moving forward.”

Wide Receiver Rookie Impact 48:06

• The rookie wide receiver class saw a significant impact this year, with notable names like Zay Flowers and Puka Nakua making their mark in fantasy football.
• Five rookie wide receivers, including various talented individuals, secured spots in the top 36 for fantasy, showcasing the strength and depth of this year’s rookie class.

“This was an interesting year. We’ve had an average of 3.7 rookie wide receivers per year finish in the top 36 for fantasy.”

Rookie Review: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Performance 49:09

• Jackson Smith and Jigbo had a season where he didn’t fully get the opportunity due to Lockett and Metcalfe staying healthy, limiting his snaps and impact.
• Despite not having a standout rookie season, JSN’s value and potential remain solid and consistent based on his pre-draft evaluation.
• Concerns linger about Seattle’s offensive changes affecting JSN’s role, but he could evolve into a slot-wide receiver unless significant shifts occur within the team dynamics.

Whatever you thought about JSN coming into the NFL, you probably still think that. Like if you felt he was clearly the number one wide receiver, I don’t think that he cemented it because he didn’t come out and have a huge season, but he didn’t, I didn’t see anything on the field that took away from how I felt about JSN in the pre-draft process.

Quentin Johnston Comparison and Rookie Wide Receiver Analysis 50:23

• Comparing JSN’s performance with Quentin Johnston sheds light on the differing impacts two rookie wide receivers had in their debut seasons.
• Johnston’s stats were not significantly different from JSN’s, leading to a discussion about the perception of rookie wide receiver performances and their potential trajectory in subsequent seasons.

Those aren’t vastly different numbers though. Right. And they were used differently. I guess I’m just curious like, I think a lot of people look at the rookie season for Quentin Johnston and say, that’s it, like rookie wide receivers, they don’t produce…

Evaluation of JSN’s Usage and Fantasy Output 52:45

• Despite concerns about JSN’s snap opportunities and ineffective usage behind the line of scrimmage hurting his fantasy production, observers still acknowledge his potential based on his snap percentages and moments of on-field success.
• With a mixed evaluation of JSN’s performance and the impact of potential quarterback changes on his future, uncertainty looms over how his role in the Seahawks’ offense might evolve.

His season in totality, you know, over 600 yards for fantasy purposes, that’s bad. But for a rookie wide receiver, it’s fine… Average 64% of the snaps. There were, let’s see here, there were six games where he was over 70% of the snaps. And here were his fantasy points playing 70 plus percent of snaps… Like that’s really disappointing.

Justin Herbert‘s Performance Analysis 56:21

• Justin Herbert saw diminished production due to injuries and quarterback issues during the season, impacting his fantasy value.
• Despite subpar performances late in the season, the suggestion is to hold onto Herbert with hopes of improvement.

“It’s as awful. It was as bad as you can get. It’s terrible. You can’t trade him. You have to hold him and hope it’s better.”

Evaluating Zay Flowers‘ Fantasy Outlook 58:31

• Zay Flowers displayed potential as a fantasy asset, showing glimpses of his ability to make big plays.
• Long-term, Flowers may settle in as a WR2 or WR3 with an emphasis on PPR leagues.

“Zay Flowers is very capable of hitting the big play, but it will be just a few spike weeks here and there.”

Comparing Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison 01:00:37

• Jordan Addison‘s performance in his rookie season proved promising, with a preference over Zay Flowers due to his consistency and touchdown production.
• Addison’s potential future success outweighs uncertainties surrounding Flowers’ long-term fantasy value.

“I’d rather have Addison than Zay Flowers.”

Jayden Reed‘s Impact and Concerns 01:02:45

• Jaden Reed demonstrated his value as a reliable option for the Packers, establishing himself as an integral part of their game plan.
• While Reed’s skill set and reliability are acknowledged, concerns arise regarding his dependency on Christian Watson‘s availability for consistent production.

“He’s going to be valuable for the Packers… but he did get it done almost always when Christian Watson wasn’t there.”

Rookie Wide Receivers Performance and Future Outlook 01:04:09

• Jaden Reed established himself in the top 24 as a rookie, proving his value beyond a limited depth chart.
• Reed’s strong finish to the season showcased his potential for growth as a receiver.
• The challenge with Reed lies in his presence as a slot wide receiver with competition from Dobbs and Christian Watson.
• Despite being catchless in a playoff game, Reed can be a focal point when on the field.
• The uncertainty surrounding Reed stems from his playing time being contingent on specific offensive packages.

Reed is a focal point when he plays and can be an excellent player despite challenges with his playing time and role.

Evaluating Rookie Receiver Rashee Rice 01:06:39

• Rice capitalized on every opportunity presented and proved himself as a reliable receiving option.
• Rice’s performance was consistent throughout the season, transitioning to a primary role within the offense.
• The question lingers on whether the team will demand more from Rice in the future or opt for different receiver options.
• Rice showed promise despite his incomplete route running skills, hinting at potential improvement in the coming seasons.

Rice showcased consistency and reliability, leaving uncertainty about his future role in the offense and room for growth.

Rookie Wide Receivers Outlook 01:11:59

• Utilizing Tank Dell like Chase in college showcases the potential implications of his impressive college stats on his NFL performance.
• Tank Dell‘s college statistics reveal a player with high reception, yardage, and touchdown counts, hinting at his potential value in the NFL.
• Tank Dell, akin to DeSean Jackson in physical attributes, is anticipated to excel and gain significant attention in the upcoming season.

Tank Dell is positioned to make an impact in the NFL, drawing comparisons to DeSean Jackson‘s physical stature.

Second-Year Wide Receiver Standouts 01:12:51

• Marvin Mims‘ track record suggests optimism, despite having to rely on hope and prayers for progression.
• Jaylen Hyatt and Cedric Tillman‘s underperformance in their rookie year shifts expectations to a potential improvement in the upcoming season.
• Josh Downs‘ promising four-game streak and yardage statistics offer a glimpse into his future role within the team’s offense.

Reflecting on the rookie performances of Marvin Mims, Jaylen Hyatt, and Cedric Tillman, hints at their future potential in the league.

Potential Breakout Candidates 01:18:36

• Michael Mayer emerges as a standout rookie tight end amidst the normalcy of rookie tight ends not excelling initially.
• Trey McBride‘s and Michael Mayer‘s rookie seasons, though unremarkable, underscore the patience required for tight end development.
• Trading for second-year tight ends like Michael Mayer could prove more beneficial than investing in rookie tight ends in dynasty leagues.

“Don’t sleep on Michael Mayer,” emphasizing the importance of patience and foresight when dealing with rookie tight ends.

Injury Update on Tyler Higbee 01:19:57

• Tyler Higbee suffered a torn ACL and MCL, making his return uncertain due to the severity of the injury.
• Further ligament injuries are being revealed, adding to the complications of his recovery.

“Higbee tore his ACL and MCL, so he seems unlikely to be back for this. More ligaments being reported right as we speak.”