Risk Baked Into ADP: WRs (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to the Risk Bakery! In this series, we look at all the different reasons that make drafters avoid certain players that are widely considered risky, and evaluate if that perceived risk is already baked into the player’s current ADP, thus making them less risky than they seem.

Last week we covered running backs. If you missed that article, you can check it out here. This time we’ll take out all the ingredients that can make a wide receiver a risky draft pick – age, bad attitude, injuries, problems with the law – and mix them with their ADP to find which of these “risky” wideouts could actually be valuable draft picks.

The perfect example from last season would be Mike Evans. Reaching his 30-year-old season, with Tom Brady’s retirement and Baker Mayfield’s arrival to Tampa Bay, his ADP dropped to the WR31 position (71st overall). Almost nobody wanted him. But he had an amazing season, finishing as the WR5 and the rest is history.

So let’s start heating the risk oven to see what’s cooking. And remember: The Fantasy Footballers Ultimate Draft Kit includes a very useful risk gauge for each player and you’ll be able to get your hands on those rankings on June 1st.

Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

Since I just mentioned him as an example from last season, let’s start with Mike Evans. At least he is being drafted as a top-24 WR now, but it still seems pretty disrespectful after he finished as the WR5 in 2023. This man has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in each of his 10 seasons as a professional football player and he’s just coming off his second-highest fantasy scoring season. Yes, he will be 31 years old when the season starts, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decay and there isn’t really a lot to be worried about. He’s got a new contract and we already know he has an excellent connection with Baker Mayfield. He has a very good chance of outperforming his current ADP by a considerable margin by simply staying healthy and doing his thing.

Keenan Allen – Chicago Bears

 

Here we have another seasoned 31-year-old WR who is considered risky business this season. There are a lot of reasons to be hesitant to draft Keenan Allen. He left the team with the most targets to go to one with not enough passing volume to feed many mouths. He will be catching passes from a rookie QB and competing for WR targets against DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. But we need to remember how much he helped Justin Herbert become Offensive Rookie Of The Year. He was always there for him. And that’s one of Keenan Allen’s main attributes: he’s been one of the most reliable wide receivers in football. He has eclipsed 1,000 yards in every season in which he has played at least 15 games. Last season he only played 12 games and that was enough for him to pile 1,243 yards and finish as the WR8. So age should not be a concern. The coaching staff changes and the playing style of Caleb Williams should increase the Bears’ passing volume. It might seem scary to draft Keenan Allen, but as a fourth-round pick, all this uncertainty seems quite baked into his ADP.

Ladd McConkey – Los Angeles Chargers

 

Many fantasy managers avoid rookies because they carry extra risk and uncertainty due to a lack of previous NFL data to help us know what to expect. And in Ladd McConkey’s case, there are also the back and ankle injuries he battled during his final year at Georgia. However, any possible doubt about him is very well compensated by his 111th overall ADP. The Chargers have more vacated targets than any other team, and even with D.J. Chark, Joshua Palmer, and Quentin Johnston in the picture, Ladd McConkey should get a very good chunk of those targets. Right now he is taking the majority of snaps in the slot with the first team at OTAs. He was very efficient from the slot in college, posting 3.26 yards per route run. So he has the potential of being one of the most immediately impactful rookies from this draft class and you can get him in the ninth round.

Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles Rams

 

Last season, rookie sensation Puka Nacua stole the show in Los Angeles, but Cooper Kupp still had a more than healthy 26% target share. However, what fantasy managers remember is how he destroyed their teams last year after drafting him at the beginning of the third round. He started the season injured and missed the first four games. He had the lowest yards per route run of his career and scored only five touchdowns. He is now 30 years old, but positive regression is in the cards for Cooper Kupp this season. He is still very talented and a great offensive weapon. He might never get his 2021 volume back with Puka around, but he’s very capable of finishing as a very decent WR2. If Kupp hurt your fantasy team in any of the past couple of seasons, it’s time to let him back into your roster at a way more reasonable price.

Jayden Reed – Green Bay Packers

 

I strongly believe that Jayden Reed is the Packers’ most talented wide receiver. But I’ll admit drafting Green Bay WRs can feel somewhat risky. There are many names, they all are quite young, and almost anyone could emerge as the top receiver. Right now the fantasy community has him and Christian Watson (WR43) quite close in ADP, which is a clear sign of the uncertainty around them. Watson was injured during the majority of last season, which gave Reed enough chances to show his talent, and ended up with 26% of the team’s targets. At the moment there’s no way to be 100% sure who will get the WR1 role. But in all this uncertainty, wouldn’t you rather take the one who already fulfilled that role last season? Currently being drafted 10 spots below his 2023 fantasy finish, Jayden Reed’s risk is considerably baked into his ADP.

Tyler Lockett – Seattle Seahawks

 

Over the past few years, Tyler Lockett has become a permanent dish on the Risk Bakery menu. He has been considered an old dude for so long that it feels like he is way older than 31 (the same age as Mike Evans). But this year he is being especially left for dead in fantasy drafts. Last season he was drafted as the WR26 (76th overall) and yes, he finished a little lower than that, but what if I told you he was the most targeted receiver in Seattle? He might have been inefficient last year, but he still has the ability to earn targets. I know it can be scary to draft a 31-year-old wide receiver. But the Seahawks’ top target earner is virtually free right now in drafts. Whatever risk he might carry is not only baked but completely burned by his preposterous ADP. Do yourself a favor and draft him. If he turns out to be finally washed, you can drop him without remorse.